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As of May 17, the data for the April economic operation, with the exception of the most critical monthly GDP, remained "missing" (in January-April). CCTV in the evening "economic half-hour" combined with published data, on the economic trends made an expert interview. There are 4 experts invited, namely Wang Yiming (NDRC), Long (National Research Center), Yuan Gangming (Tsinghua University), Li (Tsinghua University). As to whether China's economy has gone out of the trough, 4 experts express their views: Wang Yiming cautious: "Cold and cold, mixed, economic operation is in a state of stalemate." "Yuan gangming more Objective:" PMI (purchasing managers index) sampling face is very narrow, the market is warmer, but also to see the Statistical bureau published comprehensive data, due to raw materials, steel, non-ferrous metals, such as a large decline, there will be the possibility of deflation. "Long to tell the truth:" April exports only increased by 1.8 billion U.S. dollars, the chain growth of only 2%, rather than the general administration of customs announced 6.9%, whether 2% or 6.9%, exports year-on-year decline of more than 20% of the fact remains worrying. "He is the only optimist:" So far, China's real economic slowdown has basically ended, China's economy can be said to have entered a growth path, the end of this year, the Chinese economy will be larger than Japan. "I agree with Wang Yiming, Yuan Gangming, Long and other 3 experts to judge, as for Li's exposition, I think it is also worth a discussion, especially his" end of the Chinese economy than Japan, "one said: Last year, the National Bureau of Statistics for the 2007 annual GDP data for the final revision, China's economic aggregates have replaced Germany in the global "third" rankings. According to Li's optimism, it means the Chinese economy will overtake Japan as the world's second-largest by the end of 2009. Is this a myth? Li's argument is: "Because the gap between us and the Japanese economy is about 13%, China's economy is growing more than 8%, I do not doubt that." To this, I make an extension to add: If this year's GDP growth of 8% no problem, then, China's economic total to sit on the "second" precedence, this year, Japan's GDP is not negative. Japan's economy, since the global financial crisis, has been a real "neck," from the third quarter of last year, the Four seasons to the first quarter of this year, has been negative for 3 consecutive quarters. On the current trend, the next 3 quarters of this year, Japan's economy can be out of the downward channel is indeed unknown. By that, if China and Japan continue to maintain the "increase" day "reduction" situation, by the end of the year to make up 13% of the total gap is not impossible ... Moreover, the yen has been relegated since the financial crisis, the renminbi has been "appreciating" relative to the yen, taking into account changes in the exchange rate, the gap between China and Japan seems to shrink by 13%. Therefore, the end of China when the "second" seems to have a more chance of success ... The question is whether China can be a "dick" at the end of the year and that China's efforts to get out of the economic crisis are two topics – or whether the economy is superJapan, and China out of the shadow of the economic crisis is not directly related. Moreover, even if the real "second", to compare the average per capita, Japan still far ahead of China. Confidence is not from the prophecy, must take the facts to explain, I think, the present really want to boost confidence, or less to say more dry, come up with real results than say anything stronger. (luning, media commentator)
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