"New century" weekly: Restrictions on the purchase of tornadoes

The restrictions have sparked panic in Beijing, but at the national level, it does not seem to change the market for capital markets and developers. "New century" weekly reporter Li Shen in the last nine months of regulation but still no obvious effect of embarrassment, January 27, 2011, the central government promulgated to "increase two down payment to 60%" as the core of the new country eight ”。　　But the new country eight "" in the same old "limit purchase order" has become the next local government implementation of the details of the pet. Beijing limited to buy panic "new country Eight" provisions, municipalities, separately listed cities, provincial capitals and housing prices are too high, rising too fast city, in a certain period of time, to strictly formulate and implement measures to limit the purchase of housing.　　For local governments, there are two advantages of restriction, one is that the implementation period can be controlled by itself, unlike credit, interest rate policy, the local government said no, the second is strict degree variable, easy to operate. In Beijing, the restrictions on the purchase of a knife, directly inserted into the heart of the property market.　　February 16, Beijing issued "Beijing 15" Regulation policy, stipulates that "non-Beijing residents in Beijing to buy a house need to provide at least five consecutive years of social insurance or personal income tax certificate." Beijing before and after the regulation, more than 12 second-tier cities and some third-tier cities have issued a new limit purchase order, but generally less than Beijing "Strict, have the determination", highlighting the local government of the real estate love and hate intertwined mentality. Limit the scope of purchase, Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing and other cities for the whole district, and Chengdu, Guiyang, Taiyuan and other Midwest cities only the main urban area, not limited to the suburbs, of which Guiyang is restricted to the city center of urban population density, high price of a ring within the region.　　In terms of the degree of purchase, only Beijing stipulates more than five years of tax proof, and other cities are dominated by one year and two years. After the country's toughest restrictions were released, the Beijing market plunged into a panic-how many would-be homebuyers would be knocked out? Do you plan to open the plate on time?　　Developers have been meeting overnight to study.　　More worried than developers are consumers: their own situation can not buy a house in Beijing, when to return to the "free body", there is no way to evade? Many in the property industry are also starting to worry about their livelihoods. Agency worried about the sale of poor, dare not take the project hastily. On the one hand, intermediaries are prepared to tighten their belts, turning their attention to the leasing market.　　A real estate agency researcher said the company is about to release a report on the theme "Beijing's new deal to curb a large number of foreign buyers, will stimulate rental demand significantly increased, is expected to 2011 rental market will be very hot."　　According to Zhongyuan Real estate, due to the limited supply of land market in 2010, combined with the impact of limited purchases, the 2011 Beijing Real Estate market volume will fall by more than 50%. The reality may be worse than expected. SouFun Data Monitoring Center shows that in the seventh week of 2011 (February 14 February 20), Beijing residential contract 1523 sets, compared to the last week before the festival reduced 981 sets. February 16 Beijing issued a limited purchase order, the market quickly "bungee jumping", 18th residential day turnover of only 13 sets, 19th, 20th doubleHugh Day in Beijing market and second-hand housing are 0 to pay. However, from a nationwide perspective, the Spring Festival during the low base and the impact of the purchase order has not yet taken effect, two weeks after the 2011 property market continued to warmer posture, individual cities such as Nanjing, Suzhou and other buyers to catch up with the last bus to buy a large increase in turnover.　　CICC's monitoring data show that 16 of the country's key cities, 9 of the city's turnover has more than 50% of the chain Rose, the average year-on-year rise of 39%. As the new deal moves forward, most industry insiders predict that the country's property market is likely to be more sluggish than it was after April 2010, and that the first half will reach record lows and keep running low.　　The new deal and turnover fell the most direct result, is caused by home buyers of the psychological expectations of rising prices change, in Shanghai, has paid a deposit but abandoned the purchase of the case significantly increased.　　The decline in turnover is the precursor to the correction of house prices, but the limit on how long the purchase order, as well as the administrative measures to curb the demand will be in the purchase order will be relaxed after the release of the flood, these factors determine whether the 2011-year housing prices can get out of the more and more the cycle　　Price drop 10%? Liu, senior manager of Zhongyuan Real estate research, said that if local governments strictly implement the New deal, the average price of house prices in 2011 will be no more than 10% per cent.　　Similar to Liu's point of view, most of the respondents believed that the average price of house prices fell 10% or the market bottom line, or even a 2%-3% rise. This prediction is based on the regulation of real estate in the past years, as well as on the current assessment of market supply and demand differences based on the performance of different cities may be different.　　In addition, the forecast also has an important premise that the local government can strictly implement the new deal, and this is precisely the most puzzling. Liu said that from the past years of real estate regulation, the volume remained low for no more than six months, the regulation policy will be from the implementation level loosening, some local governments have begun to tentatively to loosen the market, and once the market turnover, the huge demand will quickly support the housing prices,　　At this time, the corresponding average price of the house fell less than 10%. "Through a few rounds of regulation experience, as long as the price changes a little, it must be sold out." "A state-owned real estate company Marketing vice president told our correspondent, the company in 2010 at the end of the Beijing suburb of a residential project in the 1, 2, the market response is good, the current project 3 period is about to open."　　He thinks, even if the limit buys, also always has the person who can buy a house, "now the common people already do not hold the hope that the house price falls sharply".　　BEIJING, Shenzhen as the representative of the first-tier cities, due to limited land supply, the actual supply of land over the years is far from the planned amount, (see this 2010, the 50th issue of "Beijing Land"), urban housing prices will be difficult to fall, and some suburbs may fall. According to Zhongyuan Real estate statistics, the 2010 Beijing City eight area of land supply area of 2.82 million square meters, only the Beijing land market total supply area of 19.4%, urban areas have been formed for less than the situation, so urban housing prices are difficult to fall.　　However, Beijing Tongzhou, Fangshan, Daxing and other parts of the suburbs are likely because of adequate supply, as well as the majority of the rigid demand is restricted to buy a house, the housing price correction. In addition, the policy is very sensitive to the second-hand housing market or will be the first new house price reduction. Beijing issued a strict limit purchase order, there have been some second-hand housing owners have lowered the price, but there are owners worried about the restrictions on the sale of the house after the restriction and difficult to buy a house, so take the withdrawal of the housing reluctant also a few. "At present, wait-and-see sentiment dominates, the trend of price change still need to wait for policy ferment."　　"I love my vice President Hu Jinghui to the Economist. In the second-tier cities, the restriction policy is not as strict as Beijing, in addition to the previous mentioned Chengdu, Guiyang and other cities designated restrictions on the purchase of administrative areas, most cities only require a year or two years of tax proof can be. If the implementation of the link to the water, such a restriction on the purchase of the policy is difficult to play a significant role.　　The severity of the execution level is the biggest variable. Our reporter visited the September 2010 Beijing to implement a limited purchase order, requiring outsiders to buy a house must submit a tax certificate for more than one year, but in fact, in the purchase link, some real estate developers did not enforce the request to provide this proof.　　For buyers to provide tax proof, developers and regulatory authorities are also lack of verification work, some intermediary agencies even promised to help homebuyers "do" tax proof. In Shanghai, the same restrictions on the purchase order requires a family can only buy a new house, in fact, families do not have to use the "real divorce, buy a house, then remarry" approach, but to provide a "divorce card" can be, no one to verify its authenticity.　　The immediate reason is that the building management departments and Civil Affairs Bureau, such as Construction and Housing Authority, are not connected to the network, and the supervisors will not go to the civil administration one by one to verify the marital status.　　The situation is also different in other cities, Liu that banks, developers and local governments do not want prices to fall sharply, once the housing prices began to loose, the implementation of the inevitable water, there is no need for policy-setting level to relent. Developers of the Abacus in a minor, a major year in the policy environment, China's real estate companies have acquired a strong immunity. In the April 2010 property market Entry Regulation period, many developers have recognized that regulators are trying to change people's expectations of house prices, but after a brief panic, most of the developer to restore optimistic expectations, land, development plan unaffected.　　The restrictions on the purchase of the "executive stick", many developers have changed the optimism of most of the year ago, began to prepare for a rainy day, the company's new start will be divided in the second half. Yang Hongxu, the General Research Minister of Shanghai Institute of Real Estate, said that as an administrative means of limited purchases, its exit is directly related to the price rise and fall. Short-term policies, such as restriction on purchases, can be used as long-term policies if they do not allow prices to fall. Therefore, for the purpose of this new round of regulation, developers have already had psychological preparation and sober understanding, "all kinds of policies are notSay to house prices fall, but also must not quickly rise again, keep the status quo is the safest, no new policy is good news, ' limited purchase ' will slowly digest.　　The head of a state-owned enterprise told our correspondent. In the short term, the market in the limited confidence under the shock, the majority of developers believe that a small tentative price can not solve the restrictions caused by the obstacles, chose to cover the plate and wait. SouFun data show that in the seventh week of 2011, Beijing no new batch of residential pre-sale housing stock market, up to press, 2011 Beijing Ordinary residential market only six items of pre-sale license approved, 1126 sets of listings.　　In contrast, the December 2010 single month Beijing New housing project pre-sale certificate reached 46. The decline in the stock market is affected by two factors, one is the recent Beijing Municipal Construction Authority tightened some high-end project pre-sale license approval, the second is the initiative of developers postponed the opening plan, delay the approval of the pre-sale certificate. China Sea Chairman Kengqingping February 21 to the media, the construction project to tighten the pre-sale license will aggravate supply and demand contradictions, so this policy is temporary, short-term, most of the case or the company actively postponed the opening plan.　　According to our correspondent, this plan in 2011 after the Spring Festival in Beijing, Daxing District two of the real estate, have slowed the opening plan.　　The sales director of the state-owned development Enterprises said to the Economist delay the opening of the purpose, one is because the new deal on the market wait-and-see sentiment spread, should not rashly push, the second is to attract more restricted purchase under the eligibility to buy a house consumers, if the source is really small, can be less open housing, but will not be the first to reduce prices. With real estate leader Vanke as the representative, the new deal under the wait-and-see attitude, to maintain the current marketing and price strategy unchanged enterprises accounted for the majority. February 21 Citic Investment on Vanke, Poly, investment, gold, the first opened and other developers to carry out research after the release of the report said, most developers 2011 years of planned new start volume has increased.　　The new start quantity is the measure enterprise to the Outlook Confidence degree important index, only then the developer to the market sales expectation pessimistic, only then will reduce the new start quantity. The report shows that, as developers start the second half of the strategy is production, so the sales situation is not clear, the second half of the new start there is a certain variable, do not exclude developers in the interim period to be adjusted.　　As the listed housing companies have entered the annual reporting period, it is not yet possible to know their specific new start figures for 2011. In addition to the immediate adjustment of new start-up capacity, at the beginning of 2011, many developers, including Evergrande and Shimao, implemented a refinancing plan, said Xu Jiajun, the Gold group's chief executive, saying, "Regulation also brings opportunities, because the market is not so high land prices, is a good time to buy land expansion, the premise is the hands of cash." Zhong, vice president of Moody's, told our correspondent that the current situation abroad is conducive to the real estate companies to send debt, although is undergoing regulation, but overseas investors on China's real estate and large real estate companies are very optimistic. "We all have an expectation that these policies are now temporary and that the government will not engage in such a businessHe's dead.　　"Zhong said. But he also believes that if the housing slump exceeds the maturity period, the risk of leverage increases is higher. Moody's also lowered the ratings of companies such as Evergrande Group and Garden.　　Real Estate analyst Fu Be also believes that if real estate developers continue to issue debt at this rate, they will face significant refinancing risks, if the real estate market or capital market conditions near the maturity of the bond is not able to play a supporting role, some issuers will have financial difficulties. In the long run, this limited-purchase tornado, though ferocious and strong, will not last long.　　Liu said, the most likely result is, when the volume continued low operation, house prices fell slightly, the local began to loose at the implementation level, can be called the "soft exit" limit purchase order. However, when can the administrative intervention, represented by limited purchase, actually withdraw from the market competition? Li, a member of the central Bank's Monetary Commission, said that real estate restriction was a transitional arrangement, which is more effective than traditional regulation in today's environment, but its cost is obvious, that is, it hinders or delays the realization of some consumer demand. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out a comprehensive system of fiscal and taxation reform, change the local government's Land sales finance, establish the financing, construction and management mechanism of public housing, draw lessons from Germany, Singapore and other countries, and rationally adjust the investment demand. These three, may wish to consider the real estate restriction purchase exit condition.