One of the six myths of speculation: contrarian action, private-equity predators in the mire

--The new distribution system in Anyang clearly stipulates that the maximum number of requisitions for a single account is limited to "1 per thousand" of circulation. and limit institutional investors should not be online, the net under two times purchase. "New rules" undoubtedly bundled the large institutions in the first market to "play new" to gain profits of the hands and feet, but also greatly inhibited the agency in the two-tier market, "sex" energy. New shares on the first day of chips, no longer by their relative monopoly, fundamentally restricts the IPO after the symbol, demonizing the possibility of wild speculation. Naturally beneficial to listed new shares on the first day of smooth landing. This is undoubtedly a good thing for the healthy development of the market. Plus SSE issued another new regulation: the first day of IPO, the intraday fall, or more than 20% of the suspension of disposal. Further stifled the mood of the market to stir up new shares.　　SSE even on the eve of the IPO, the pain of the killer, limited the trading board leader's wife's account transactions for one months! These "severe penalties" are places unheard of before. In such a new distribution system and atmosphere, the first single and on July 10, 2009 on the debut of "Guilin Three Gold" (002275), will naturally arouse the attention.　　Its debut on the stage of performance, will undoubtedly become the subsequent listing of new shares of the vane and reference. We see: "Guilin three gold" on the first day of listing, opening price: 32.50 yuan. Up 64.14% from the IPO price. Change hands 82.03% all day. It should be said that this is a good beginning.　　The realization of the listed companies, the vast number of retail friends and management are more satisfied with the "win more". Throughout the day, "Guilin three gold" and another only with it listed at the same time, "Million horse cable" on the first day of handicap performance, I think: this is different from the previous IPO speculation of the two most notable features are: (1) Sniper new shares of the main force and its strength and the past has undergone fundamental changes; (2)　　Management of the IPO on the first day of supervision of the strength and effectiveness of a new level.　　We only from the "Guilin three gold" on the first day of listing, the top five of the list of transactions can be clearly read out this change. "Guilin three gold" all day deal 1.064 billion yuan. The first place on the list is the prestigious "National Letter securities Shenzhen Nine Road sales department." A total of 9.44 million yuan to buy. On behalf of the first five buyers, a total of 39.37 million yuan, accounting for the total amount of the whole day deal 3.7%. Another listing of new shares: "Million horse Cable" (002276) a total of 840 million yuan transactions throughout the day. (In this new stock of the top five deal billboard, also impressively reappear "state letter securities Shenzhen Nine Road Sales Department" figure). The sales department bought a total of 7.6 million yuan. These data, revealing an important message: This two-strong attack on the new shares is that they-to the state letter Shenzhen, the nine road sales department for the representative of private equity. Because we did not see one of the top five deals in two stocks! Then, this first day to undertake the selling, sniper new stock main force from the original institutions mainly to change to the pattern of the main private equity, the future will bring how the impact?? The author in two new shares after the first day of the closed July 11 (Saturday), "stock market dynamic analysis," held in the "2009 Interim Investment Report" on the speech, said: On July 13, two new shares after the opening, I am afraid to eat a drop of the risk of the board (two shares are open in the fall of the position).　　"Three gold" is still weak. In fact, as early as "Guilin three gold" on the day of the listing, just 9:35 points after the opening, the author has pointed out that "no strength agencies involved." Due to see two new shares opened 5 minutes of the concentration of a huge deal of pure retail investors. The author then issued a warning at 9:40: "Can not chase high buy" (parameter diagram: Point B). 9:42, that is, in the unit was stopped before 5 minutes, the author again suggested: "Every high sell, the reason: has been seriously beyond the" time-sharing amplitude "Requirements" (diagram: C). 9:45 points, the author again stressed: "The higher the more sell." It's going to be a surge. 2 minutes later, the stock was suspended. 14:44 points, the author made the following disk tip: "From the handicap, not large institutions to buy the plate." Suspect for "Nine road", such as private placement (ginseng QQ Records and illustrations: D). Behold a language into prophecy! In fact, this is not a sjms. Pure experience dictates. The author only since 2008, in the research of new shares of a large number of data, I saw the "national letter in the nine road" first time to fight new shares 15 times, there are 14 times is a failure record. (especially the heavy warehouse "Sichuan run Shares" "Crystal Photoelectric" "Golden Feida" the most brutal).　　But they "repeatedly defeated the war"! Thus causing the author to greatly interpret their interest in tactical style. So, what is the reason, so that "the nine Road" heavy warehouse 9.44 million yuan to kill the "three gold", so weak.　　And then for three days in a row, they have to like the following stated that they buy from the sale, self-help redeeming? July 13, (the second day of the listing) after the opening, in the disk in the private forces attempt to pull up, but failed (2nd K line combination: Rebound failure).　　National letter in the top nine road in the day list, ranked second: Buy 6.13 million yuan, sell 4.28 million yuan. July 14, (the third day of the listing) the unit was "low" the next day, creating a new low. "Nine Road" buy 3.5 million yuan, sell 3.07 million yuan. Ranked first in the list. A discerning eye can be seen, purely in the pull from the singing.　　(The 9.44 million that you bought the first day hasn't come out yet!) July 15 (fourth day of listing) "Thai Nine" to buy 5.88 million yuan, sell 5.18 million yuan (list of the day three).　　Except for the redeeming, nobody cheers! We have seen only from the four days of public information on the "three gold" listing that the stock has never been high since the next day. On the first day of its IPO, the highest price of 39.00 yuan, the lowest price of 31.48 yuan, the largest decline near 20%! no matter how to say, the IPO of this new IPOs, to its debut on the second market of the people did not bring blessingSound。　　For its heavy warehouse to kill into the "calm Nine Road" private placement of friends, have left the indelible scars (at least, as of July 16, the deadline for this article).　　So, what is the cause of the "Thai nine" so persistent speculation of the new family of friends in the mire, suffered this robbery? Where did they go wrong?　　First, "3 minutes is not the same amount." "Guilin three gold" after the opening of the first hand turnover rate of 5.9%. It should be said that this is a good start. The second hand turnover rate of 9.5%, beyond the first pen, there is obviously a new number of forces poured in, it seems very ideal. But at this point, you should think: What force is involved? The wood of the peoples, the flames soar. Retail investors are affected by the soaring price of the atmosphere, the mood is high-pitched, courageously killed. Its "one or two sum", unexpectedly as high as 15.42%. 3 minutes, the firm has changed hands but only 23.8%, failed to achieve "multiples." This is a fatal flaw.　　At 9:33, the author then prompts: "No agency Intervention" (diagram: Point a).　　Another fundamental mistake is the "opening price". We see that the unit bid from the collection of the first 30.00 yuan, step up. Opened at 32.50 Yuan. According to our analysis of 10 indexes and their circulation discs, the upper limit of value evaluation is 32.00 yuan. And before the opening of the 8:50 points in the QQ group to be publicized.　　The unit opened at 32.50 Yuan, has climbed to the upper limit, and then rose, clearly beyond the safety margin line. Third, and then from 5 minutes to change the rate of hand to see. Its "standard change hands" should be 5.37 million shares. Firm disk 10.37 million. "Super" 5 million shares. The deviation is too big! The mood of the bandwagon is high, but it's irrational.　　To 15 minutes, still "super" 4.7 million shares, has not calmed down. Its four, first 5 minutes, that has exceeded the 5% amplitude limit (5.85%); 15 minutes, time-sharing amplitude 9.54%.　　30 minutes, the impact of 20% of the total amplitude, immediately by the management of mandatory suspension. Through the above we to "Guilin three gold" analysis, can be clearly seen: on the first day of the IPO will be the main private placement of the new family blindly pushed the "Guilin three gold", and then will face a return on the value of the process. Their decline is the first of its intrinsic value decision, the 19.80-yuan issue pricing has basically reflected the level two market reasonable space. It is "too cold" to limit its opening valuation to 32.00 yuan. On the other hand, according to the law of the new stock speculation "two hit See Fall". This is due to the inherent lack of motivation, which is not determined by up to 82.3% of its first day of change. Therefore, the author stubbornly thought that it would be thrown at the opening of the next day. Because value is the compass that determines the first day of new shares ups and downs. "Guilin three gold" on the first day of the market close to "60 times times the price-earnings ratio" has been overdrawn the future.　　It will pay the price. Furthermore, the author thinks that: The new shares listed in this batch, management has taken a very strict regulatory thinkingand measures. In particular, the ban on board death squad leader of the sanctions, deterrent! Trying to stabilize almost to the point of "no stir fry". This is not only the protection of the market, but also to the next venture board to do a safe landing on a real-disk rehearsal! It can be said that two of new shares of the increase as the "button" to die at 20%, is a successful exercise. This is the overall interests of the market, which is the overall situation. Then, under such a trend, we must take advantage of it. And this time to 9.44 million yuan into the "Guilin three gold" of "national faith in the nine Road" and other private placement, has not been able to pull out of new highs, all over the body and retreat! The main reason is to judge the general trend. When the overall interests and their own local interests conflict, rashly shot, reverse the city and move, blindly kill into, Ann can be calm?! In fact, private-equity corps are no shortage of experts, but private-equity operations are more smooth homeopathy. There is no shortage of funds to lift a 36.8 million small circulation plate "three gold", do not need a sledgehammer. But private-equity pros are better at "Sunding". They tend to follow the texture of the beef. If brandished. When you see an ox, chop it.　　Once the cow, even if not kicked you, also told you to lie in the first half of six months. "Guilin three gold" after the fall of the plate wash plate and take time. Once the value returns to the place, we believe that it will also be "The Golden Body reappearance". It's just the private-equity warriors of the nine-way Shenzhen, who, at the wrong time, filled out a wrong bill.