"Ox" has not yet come to the "wolf" to be able to defend

Masters Famous view "style conversion can successfully determine whether the market still has room to rise."　　Historical experience shows that it is difficult to succeed in a bear-cycle style conversion, but in the bull cycle, the style conversion has a successful case with the combination of liquidity, economic cycle and value investment ideas.　　Judging from the condition of style conversion, the probability of overall success is very small, and the possibility of failure or local success is greater.　　Perhaps the best strategy would be to either lighten the profits or transfer them to the large market capitalisation of finance and property. -Banguo, director of the Dongxing Securities Institute if the 1664 to 2,688 point of the market is defined as a rally in the Big Bear cycle, then the cumulative 60% rise is nearing the top of the historical bear cycle, second only to the "5 19 quotes" of the decade ago;　　By defining the rally as a shift from a bear-market cycle to a bull-market cycle, this is only a preview, and the more violent market is still behind.　　Given the information at hand, the bull cycle is based on a smooth economic recovery and a new growth cycle, but such judgments cannot be made at this time, so it is a relatively prudent strategy to continue to look at the evolution of future markets in the context of the rebound nature of the bear market cycle. As far as the market itself is concerned, whether it is a bull or a bear market, the biggest problem of a a-share run to the present position is "whether or not the style conversion will succeed". If the market is to maintain the rise or strength, then there must be enough hot spots to support, at present, only a large market capitalisation stock gains small, static valuation is still attractive, the funds dare to increase positions in these stocks;　　So large market capitalisation stocks may become a big increase in the accumulation of small and medium market stock to lighten the important means, so may form a style conversion illusion.　　Multiple conversion failures in a bear market a successful case in a bull market from the recent 20-year history of a-share, it can be seen that in the period of the bear cycle, the transformation of the markets style has failed, and the market style conversion has a successful case. We believe that the history of the most worthy of reference in the two Bear cycle style conversion is "1999 5 19 Market" and "2003 Five Golden Flower." "5 19" is the mainstream of network technology, many varieties in a short period of 1.5 months, the stock price doubled or even greater gains, but due to the lack of sufficient hot support style conversion, the market later plunged into a six-year adjustment. By the start of the bull market in early 2000, the mainstream varieties remained unchanged, or the network technology as the main guide. In the early 2003, coal, automobiles, electricity, banks, steel and other plates as the representative of the "Five Golden Flower" to create a share market for the first time influential large market value stock opportunities, but the market is subject to severe macro-control policy constraints, then plunged into a downturn in the investment line in the bear cycle gradually converted to a defensive type, to Guizhou Maotai,　　Zhang Yu A, Yunnan white powder for the representative of the brand consumer goods become a contrarian opportunity. On the whole, onThe style conversion after the end of the mainstream breed in the two bear cycle was unsuccessful, as there were no new investment varieties to replace it and the support index continued to rise.　　The former is the first adjustment and then mining the original mainstream varieties to achieve market gains, the latter is completely converted into a defensive type of variety. Look at the market performance of the bull cycle. The bull cycle generally shows that one or several mainstream varieties of the rising index to form a bull market, then the investment opportunities to spread fully, most stocks in the next stage has a fairly good performance, there is no typical style conversion problem. Strictly speaking, the real success of the bull cycle is only the 2006-2007 Great bull market, with two successful conversions: One in 2006, the first half in the commodity bull-driven non-ferrous metals, and the second half to the strong cyclical characteristics of finance, property,　　Such a significant change in investment opportunities is not easy; it was 2007, 5 30 before the 5 30, after the return of value stocks. If we analyze the reasons for the success of these two-style conversions in the bull market, it can be summed up to three points: first, there is ample capital. During the bull market in 2006-2007, due to the expectation of RMB appreciation and the large expansion of fund assets, the capital supply of stock market is very abundant, so it is the inevitable result to choose the big market value blue chip as the investment target; second, the economic cycle is strong. The upward trend of China's economic cycle began in 2003, but the growth of corporate profits lagged behind GDP growth, the real release of corporate profits in 2006-2007, especially in the A-share market, a large number of strong cyclical characteristics of the bank, real estate, resource stocks, are in this period of performance accelerated growth; third, The promotion and enlargement of the value investment idea. About the value of investment in the promotion of a shares should be from the 2003 five Golden Flower, the major change at the time was "performance growth is the key, market capitalisation is no longer a major constraint on the choice of investment," and this and the previous a-share market to invest in small-market shares of the concept of the mainstream has changed a lot. The 2003-2005 bear market cycle, the value of the concept of further conversion, the pursuit of robust cycle of growth, that is, brand consumer goods; the 2006-2007 bull market is the depth and amplification of value investment ideas, banks, real estate and resource stocks in the performance of the outbreak, and thoroughly molded a large market capitalisation, Big Blue　　Big chance investment idea.　　Overall, to achieve the small market value of the theme of stocks to the large market capitalisation of the style of blue-chip votes, these conditions may be indispensable, otherwise this conversion is difficult to achieve complete success.　　Three perspectives on the current market style transformation according to the foregoing conditions of the corresponding analysis of the current market, may be the success of the style conversion probability will form a relatively objective understanding.　　First, on the adequacy of funding. One of the most fundamental drivers of the A-share market has been the impetus for liquidity, which is mainly due to the large and unexpected growth in credit scale, and we have calculated the m2/circulation market value and loan balance/circulation marketValue these two parameters since 2007 monthly changes, you can find two characteristics: first, the rebound in the relative indicators of liquidity from the second half of 2008, in fact, to achieve a higher value after October, the main reason is actually the sharp contraction in the circulation market value. Since 2009, although new loans and M2 growth rates are high, but due to the rapid growth in the circulation market value, so the relative ease of liquidity is actually falling, lower than the early 2007 level. In another perspective, from the comparison with the 2007 market characteristics of the logic to understand, you can see a possible change: The relative index of liquidity has not supported the overall market rally, if the market continues to maintain strong, very likely to evolve into "28" or even "19" structural strength.　　Otherwise, it may mean that the upward trend will be over.　　Second, from the current relative indicators of liquidity to observe, the current data is not as rosy as the mere observation of credit-growth data, and the most important reason is the rapid expansion of the market capitalisation, so that the momentum for the continued rise in the markets is at any time weakening and even depleted, and must regain balance in a position where market capitalisation is relatively low. The second logical analysis of the adequacy of funds should be the potential of institutional investors, represented by public-offering funds, as they are the most important source of power to drive style conversions. The stock Fund's current average position is close to 80%, and there is little room for further improvement. Subsequent incremental funds are mainly from the new distribution fund, since 2009, the stock funds issued by the fund scale of roughly 70 billion yuan, according to 80% of the stock position calculation, incremental funds in more than 40 billion yuan.　　Such a scale of incremental funds and finance, real estate, the two major sectors of the stock market value compared to, I am afraid not to play a decisive role.　　Second, the outlook for the economic cycle. Because of the large market capitalisation of the A-share markets are basically strong cyclical industries, so the prospect of economic cycle is very important to the recovery of such stock earnings growth. The consensus on the economic recovery is that "the worst is over".　　In other words, the Chinese economy has bottomed out, but there is still disagreement as to what shape it will take, and there is a need for constant observation of the changes in the data. The latest economic data for April are also mixed, the two data we care about most are not particularly ideal: first, the growth rate of industrial value increases, which is lower than that of March, and the highest matching of industrial growth seems to confirm this trend; the second is the structural data of investment capital of fixed assets, Mainly look at the change of enterprise self-financing ratio, at present, compared with the 2008 accounted for a decline and relatively slow recovery. There are, of course, a number of positive signs that the economic recovery will not be repeated at least in the two quarter, such as credit growth and fixed asset investment growth.　　But overall, a more optimistic assessment of the economic cycle is that the economic recovery has begun, but there is not enough evidence to go into the upward cycle. Third, the recognition of the value investment concept.　　The value investment idea should be in a reflective stage in China's a-share market, that is, whether the value investment needs to consider the change of the economic cycle, especially the impact of the value type in the period of economic downturn is also quite large. Therefore, the current revision of value investment focuses on two areas: first, in the appropriate economic cycle and market cycle background, buy the appropriate industries and varieties, a long period of time to hold an industry leading the concept of the impact; the second is that the shareholding structure adjustment after the formation of the downward trend is an effective supplement to the value investment. Simple buying is not all that is worth investing.　　It is also reasonable to understand the market characteristics so far, because it is a number of strong cyclical characteristics of the financial, real estate, petrochemical and other large market value varieties rose very small, and the early cycle of non-ferrous coal, weak cycle of small and medium-sized SMEs and forward-looking new energy varieties constitute the current mainstream opportunities. Is "Wolf" coming or "bull"? From the impact of style conversion on market trends, this is about the key to the continuation of the rally: If the conversion succeeds, this rally may not be a simple rebound, may become a bull bear cycle of conversion, then we are talking about the cows; if the conversion is unsuccessful, This rally may peak in the current position and really expand the adjustment. Many previous heavy volume stagnation or volume fall in the form of the subsequent policy push through, to the market feeling is the wolf to come but never really come.　　If the style conversion fails maybe this time it will turn into a wolf to the story of the stock market version, when the market to adjust to produce paralysis or think soon will regain the lost ground of inertia thinking form, the wolf will really come. At present our judgment is inclined to the latter. The core reason is that liquidity, economic cycle, value investment ideas are difficult to form a joint force at this stage, so the probability of success of this style conversion is less than the school if the probability is small, then the future market trend may be two changes: first, style conversion can only be local success. The so-called local success, is the financial, real estate, coal trend to maintain stability, to ensure that the overall index operation will not be a sharp decline, but the cumulative increase in the majority of stocks may be a large number of adjustments; second, the style of conversion has been completely defeated, that is, the large market value of blue chips then joined the adjustment team, then the overall , but due to the large market capitalisation of blue chip adjustment space is more likely to be limited to the recent gains, so the market adjustment of the lower point may be lower than the year line but will not deviate too far, but the small and medium-sized market share of the adjustment is still not school so, the style of conversion failure on the market The story of the wolf is likely to be real in the next 1-2 months, and the cows may still be relatively distant.　　Then, the current one into the attack, retreat can be kept the strategy is: either start to lighten the profit, or adjust the position structure, increase the allocation of large market capitalisation blue chips. m2/circulation market value, loan balance/circulation market value change one week new A-share account number, new fund account number list one week account active degree