Qingtai: Low-speed electric should be incorporated into new energy vehicles

Should low-speed electric vehicles be "regularized"? Should it be included in the new Energy vehicle category? These issues have been controversial in recent years and have long been inconclusive. The topic will also be an important part of the upcoming China Electric Vehicle (hundred people) forum, to be held from January 13, 2015 to 14th.

In fact, at the beginning of the hundred people will be set up, low-speed electric vehicles as a key issue has been a number of experts attention. Including the hundred People meeting Chairman Qingtai, the Academic Committee president Xu, the Chinese Automobile Engineering Society Chairman Sanguwu, the Chinese Automobile Technology Research Center deputy Director Wu Zhiwun and so on several experts all around this topic carries on the research. and Low-speed electric vehicles also become hundred people will be the first seven subjects to complete the report, and has a preliminary conclusion of the project.

December 26, the State Council Development Research Center of the original party secretary, deputy director of Qingtai, in the capacity of the Board of Directors of the Hundred members of the "21st Century Economic Report" interview, on the new Energy vehicle policy formulation and low speed electric vehicle access and open up a number of hot issues to express their views.

500,000 goals are not realized.

"21st century": in recent years, especially this year, the state has launched a series of support policies for new energy vehicles, so far, do you think these policies have achieved the desired effect?

Qingtai: The state does have a lot of policies, and it has good results, but the electric car market is far from the expected target. While the state policy is more scientifically effective and well worth studying, the more fundamental problem is the maturity of electric-vehicle technology and the continued availability of fuel vehicles, not only in China.

For example, the goal of the 500,000 vehicles was proposed in 2009, to achieve it by 2015, now it seems very difficult, but this does not mean that the Government's attention and support for electric cars caused by not in place, in fact, this situation is not only in China, in other countries almost the same. For example, the United States, Japan have developed the goal of the development of electric vehicles, but also did not achieve. So we did not realize this round is not surprising, but more important is that it shows the Government's attitude towards the development of electric cars, for enterprises and research and development institutions pointed out the direction, which is very valuable.

"21st century": will we make adjustments in our goals?

Qingtai: Planning a quantity is directive, cannot understand the rigid requirement under the plan system, because electric vehicle development still depends on the market, when the market acceptance degree still cannot reach, there is no need to focus too much on the quantity target. It's important to look back, what is wrong with the original judgment, such as the judgment of the technical maturity, whether the business model can find a better way, the opening of market access is insufficient, the government-supported policy has produced long-term expectations, etc., which will provide us with the basis for the next step to formulate policies, which is the most valuable.

In fact, when we set the target, we can do it, but we have not. Finding a problem is a value.

21st Century: Has this problem been found yet? Where did it happen?

Qingtai: This is a mixed view. For example, Deputy Prime Minister Ma Kai began last year to organize government departments to do a lot of research on new energy vehicles, after July this year, the government in such a short period of time, for an industry to introduce such a dense and strong policy, this is almost the first time in my experience. It brought a small climax to the development of new energy vehicles, and the surface found the crux of the current problem. But the electric vehicle is still in the rapid development stage, the Government should also roll with the situation change, revise the related policy, moves toward the goal unceasingly.

Proposed subsidy to cross subsidy

21st Century: What do you think the government's role in promoting the marketization of electric vehicles and the boundaries of management?

Qingtai: Currently in the world, the first driver of electric vehicle market is almost all government, because electric vehicles can achieve zero emissions, reduce urban pollution, if done well, but also with intelligent transportation has a good link. But for consumers, this is "externalities" benefits, for themselves, electric vehicles and fuel vehicles, or compared to the economy, inconvenient, not at ease. At present, the electric vehicle industrialization faces many "first chicken or egg" contradiction has not been resolved, the industrialization dilemma how to break through, I think the market power alone can not solve, need the government to do. So in the early days of industrialization, the government is necessary to hand in, but how the government to sell is a very worthwhile study is also a very interesting topic.

"21st century": Indeed, the government is now the first driver of electric vehicle marketization. The market development is basically relying on subsidies, but if the government has been doing so, there will be problems. What do you think of this phenomenon?

Qingtai: I totally agree with that. How long will government subsidies last? Taxpayer money to subsidize people to buy a car, short time is OK, but it is not sustainable. So the so-called subsidy "Xianpo" problem, this is completely correct, but it is not so simple.

We are now studying the California subsidy scheme for new energy vehicles, and we are also discussing with the finance ministry. I think California's policy ideas have important implications. Policy must take into account both incentives and constraints, is two-way. The carrot and the stick.

California's so-called zero-emission regulations are such a principle. It is actually a cross subsidy, which stipulates that in the case of locally sold cars, zero emissions must be accounted for in a certain year, if not, or to buy indicators. Now the target is to buy Tesla's targets, and Tesla gets several billions of dollars a year. In other words, the fuel car subsidies clean energy vehicles. This has nothing to do with taxes, does not affect tax revenue, it will also form a very natural Xianpo, that is, with the government set targets closer to the strength of cross-subsidization less. Its guiding role is sustainable.

Our new energy car first phase of financial subsidies from 2010 to 2012, three years, the new policy did not pick up, production and sales quickly fell. After the new filling up, there is a small climax. This short-term policy is not enough to produce enough anticipation for producers and consumers, so consumers are cautious and businesses are hard to do it wholeheartedly. It is very important to have a long-term expectation if we use a similar policy mentality in California.

Another benefit of cross-subsidization is that different subsidy coefficients can be used for different types of electric vehicles. If the subsidy coefficient of pure electric vehicles is 1, the plug-in can be 0.7, the depth can be 0.4, so that the government's policy is neutral, no interference in the technical route.

The substitution of electric vehicles for fuel vehicles is revolutionary and undergoes a difficult process. An important policy thinking is to find in different stages of the current period of technological maturity can be supported, and can be accepted by the market products, open market exports, so that this new technology mainly rely on market forces rather than the government to run, while profit side development. A very good example of this is the process of replacing a CRT with a flat panel. With the technology of electric vehicles now mature one step to replace the main model, a bit like Ishing, but from the two poles of high-end cars and small cars, its advantages have emerged.

The high-end electric car, represented by Tesla, is good, but it has limited sales. China's active development of mainstream electric vehicles, but also should be noted in China quietly rising small, short, low-speed electric vehicles. Such vehicles can meet most of the needs of consumers in 三、四级 cities and remote villages because of their limited range of daily mobility and limited economic capacity. Experts estimate that if the market can be opened, it will soon be able to form a millions even Chiwan level of the market.

"21st century": Do you mention the California cross subsidy method, will it become the direction of future policy adjustment?

Qingtai: The hundred will make recommendations for the government. One of the hundred-person research projects is an international comparison of electric vehicle policies, including California's cross subsidy approach. In principle, this should work, it is actually the carbon emission interaction principle, but the policy formulation process can be difficult. There are more ways than difficulties, and the most important thing is to bring progress to society.

Low-speed electric should be incorporated into new energy vehicles

"21st century": low-speed electric vehicles on the road will increase traffic accidents, we are more worried about its safety, how do you see this phenomenon?

Qingtai: I think the traffic safety problem can refer to the management of motorcycles. Large cities can be limited, but in the vast number of small and medium-sized cities and rural areas should be liberalized. In traffic management, you can give a special license for Low-speed Electric, such as Green brand, so that it and other cars have a distinct difference. There can be some restrictions on the right of the road, such as highways, highways, etc.

In fact, the management of Low-speed electric vehicles is not only a practical problem, but also a conceptual problem. The so-called innovation, also known as creative destruction, it destroys not only the original technology, but also the original rules, we have to change to the innovative countries, the rules of the game sometimes must adapt to new needs. For example, E-commerce, it broke the original many rules, the government did not restrict it but tolerant attitude, which has today's Alibaba and the global admiration of E-commerce. And to solve the vast number of rural residents travel motorization, Urban logistics, the last kilometer of the speed of electric vehicles, we should also be tolerant attitude.

"21st century": many low-speed electric vehicle manufacturers are workshop-style, not up to standard, the product lacks safety and quality assurance, how should the government manage these enterprises?

Qingtai: First ask, where is the standard for low-speed electric vehicles? It is illogical and may be biased to say that the standard is not set. I believe that as long as the low-speed electric vehicles to set a standard, strengthen supervision, the existing products and manufacturers to rectify, within a few years can change the face.

"21st century": the Affirmation of low-speed electric vehicles, does not mean that the future low-speed electric vehicles will be included in the category of new energy vehicles?

Qingtai: I'm not sure from the regulatory perspective. I think it should be included, if the use of lithium, the government subsidy a little better. Many battery companies say that if the size of the industry comes up, the cost will soon fall. Low-speed electric vehicle battery consumption, lithium battery life is longer than lead-acid batteries, coupled with very low operating costs, can soon be tied. Short, low speed is a market segment of electric vehicles. This kind of car price is low, the use cost is lower, the supplementary energy is convenient, by medium and Small-sized city, village low inhabitant generally welcome. To "Be sure" low-speed electric vehicles, involving changes in traffic regulations, there are different views, may also need to further summarize the practical experience, in-depth research and finally make decisions.

"21st century": Not long ago, the government's introduction of the electric vehicle access policy, many people think that this is for low-speed electric vehicles set up, in order to standardize the electric car market, you think this policy is mainly targeted by who?

Qingtai: I am not good at guessing, but I think that market access should be more vigorously and orderly open. In the face of a new breakthrough in technology, there are a large number of investors, entrepreneurs, found opportunities, they sharpened their heads want to come in, which is precisely the technical maturity necessary.

The breakthrough in new technology faces great uncertainty, and it is a trial-and-error process to turn uncertainty into certainty. Who's going to try it wrong? Is the government paying to try the wrong? No, it is up to the investors to try and make a mistake, because trial and error success will be rewarded, so at this time should welcome new entrants. As long as local governments do not encourage, also do not unduly limit, so that every investor entrepreneurs into the rational, do not be afraid of a lot of enterprises to enter, more enterprises will accelerate the process of trial and error. How far each enterprise can go is no one knows, but their contribution is to complete the trial and error.

Therefore, what the enterprise to do or by the Enterprise independent decision-making, at its own risk, the government should do is to create a good competitive environment, a platform.

"21st century": if the electric car market competition, let foreign brands, technology come in, for China's own brand electric cars will have an impact?

Qingtai: On the one hand, the government may set some policies on how to treat local enterprises and foreign companies, which is necessary and essential in the early stage of electric vehicle development. But on the other hand, we can look at Huawei's case. Huawei began to start, the telecommunications industry should come to the foreign-owned enterprises have entered, and finally Huawei has grown up. So competition is a process of learning, motivating and screening. Closed up, it was bad for everyone, but all of a sudden I guess it's a bit difficult, so there's a transition phase that I think is necessary.