Real estate "warmer" and personal loan support related fake mortgages worth paying attention to

Author: Li Majestic Real estate market "warmer" and the bank's personal loan support, fake mortgage worthy of concern recently, warmer, higher prices, fake mortgages, check-out and other news flooded the property market, bewildering. Zhang Hongjie, head of the research Department of China Securities Market, noted a group of figures on the changes in the structure of new loans disclosed in the June 2 report: Four banks added 60.3 billion yuan to public loans 30 days before May, accounting for only 35%, and personal loans reached 94.3 billion yuan, accounting for up to 55%.　　In the first five months (excluding May 31) of the total, the new public loans to 1.5276 trillion yuan, accounting for a ratio of 56%. "This confirms that the recovery in the real estate market is directly related to the support of bank loans." Zhang Hongjie said, "Some of these provinces and cities due to the relatively loose bank credit, but also caused a substantial rise in housing prices." "The financial weekly reporter survey learned that the current bank of May new credit data are being reported." It is not possible to derive the final new loan data accurately on the basis of individual bank statistics alone.　　After the data have been aggregated to the central bank, the central bank has to consider factors such as seasonal adjustment to calculate the final growth.　　The bank's interest in personal mortgage loans is large personal housing mortgage loans in the bank's personal loans have been the main. Zhang Hongjie, who has long been concerned about the financial real estate industry, believes it is reasonable for banks to turn to support real estate credit. As the January-April, the credit for business and industry increased substantially, the bank again to the industrial and commercial enterprises also have a choice of project concerns, the shift to real estate is also an inevitable choice.　　The transfer of bank credit to real estate may continue for some time. A senior head of a joint-stock bank said banks are now less interested in developing loans than in mortgage loans, and the reason they want to develop loans is to mortgage. Although because of interest rate concessions, the spread of mortgage loans is very small, the performance of the bank also has a negative impact, but there is no alternative to the bank, or to do more. "Banks are also very active in mortgage, now the market may even have some irregularities, reflecting that many banks really want to do this business, as long as a good project, good developers, sales of reasonable prices, banks will now actively support."　　The official said. "At present we evaluate mortgage loans, mainly look at market location, huxing and so on." Market positioning such as Shanghai, Guangzhou and other place, the letter to the crowd or to the mid-range customers, we found that about 90 square meters of huxing in Guangzhou or have a very good market. In Shenzhen, a little bigger is better, such as 100 square meters, 140 square meters are more popular in the market.　　"said the senior bank chief. There is another understanding of the increase in lending. In the opinion of Lu Xiaojiu, a joint director of the Bank's International research Division, the increase in the percentage of loans is mainly due to a change in the proportion of public loan reduction. Of course, May loans did grow well.　　But not the main reason. "The structure of new loans is a sensitive indicator that both management and industry attach importance to." In the past, in the new loans, the proportion of the loan accounted for 25%-30%. If the four-line loan increase in May is 300 billion yuan, the ratio of personal loans may be about 35%, similar to the previous one.　　"Lu Xiaojiu said.　　Lu Xiaojiu that the growth of the loan itself to measure more meaningful, only to see the amount of the loan itself is significantly accelerated growth, can explain the problem. The housing market "warmer" data show that May this year, Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Tianjin and Xiamen, the eight major city turnover remained stable, turnover rose 45%-259% year-on-year, the average price of the overall chain Rose 0-11%. The total area of unsold units in six cities decreased from 62.1 million square meters in April to 57.9 million square meters in May.　　The figures support, to some extent, the "housing recovery" judgment. Although the volume of six cities increased by 4%-56%. But volumes in Beijing and Chongqing fell 6% and 29%, respectively.　　Volume decline in the context of the chain, on the "fake mortgage", "check-out rate rise" and so on. Many friends around Lu Xiaojiu bought a house this 1-April. For "false mortgage", "check-out rate rise" said, his understanding is "afterward". "There may be a fake mortgage, but the real (mortgage) is still the mainstream." "The false mortgage and Check-out report is sweeping. In fact, developers due to the demand for lower capital ratios, may generate more borrowing demand. Banks have seen a rise in mortgage lending, and the risk of real estate has also been reduced, and a preference for real estate loans has become a reasonable option.　　"Days congenial analyst Wang Yifeng said. Beijing Real Estate Association's relevant officials believe that the so-called "Beijing high check-out rate" is a misreading of the number. If there is no collusion between the developer and the bank, the operation of the fake mortgage is very difficult.　　No signs of a fake mortgage have been found recently.　　However, some industry insiders believe that the false mortgage is to create a property market and bank credit double bubble is a matter of concern. A few days ago, reporters in Beijing Tongzhou several real estate to see, compared with two months ago, the average price of the building increased by more than 1000 yuan. Century Star City's real estate price from the original 7300 yuan to raise the current 8500 yuan. Close to the east of Beijing, Hebei suburbs of some real estate price promotion is similar.　　Sales offices from various real estate can be seen, home purchase popularity, of which the vast majority of homebuyers use mortgages. "Trading in May is logical, and if it doesn't, it's not logical." Because the market to buy and sell the two sides agree is phased, there is a game of the process, it is impossible to achieve a completely consistent price.　　"Lu Xiaojiu said. "I don't agree that house prices have warmed up. Real estate prices are still more than their value. The price should be returned. If there is no effective return, inflation will come sooner. If inflation comes too soon, worrying stagflation will come. "The subprime mortgage crisis," a book author, senior economist Sun Zhaodong said.