Talk about the stock of gold:

Hong Kong stock ETFs and short-term hype Zeng a while ago, the US government announced that 10 of the 19 major bank stress tests were unqualified and needed to raise money in the market. In theory, this should be bad news, but the market will be bad news as good news speculation, the plate was fired up.　　The analyst explained: "The uncertainties that haunt the market are clear, the market is not afraid of bad news, but the news is not clear, because uncertainty means a bottomless pit."　　But the stock market fell sharply last week after the U.S. consumer-retail data were released last month, and this time, bad news is bad news, not good news.　　The reason is that the stock market has risen quite a lot, and should find a reason to adjust. In fact, today's consumer retail market in the world, including China, which still has a 6.5% growth rate, is not ideal. It is well known that you can see it in a retail consumer place, as is the case in Hong Kong and the mainland. A while ago, the stock market rally was not a reflection of the current market, but a speculation about the future of the market, which is why the stock market often run on the front end of the most fundamental reasons. Buying and selling stocks is gambling in the future, as 2007 years, Alibaba's P/E as high as 100 times times, still someone rob buy. The analyst explained: "The company's growth rate is very high, after two or three years, P/E may fall to 20 times times, 10 times times".　　Of course, such an explanation only applies to great bull market, in the Big bear market, P/E 10 times times is already very expensive, the markets are more P/E 5 times times the stock. I am not good at short-term hype, I buy and sell the stock method has always been bought after the side ignore, until I think a big round of the bull market is almost over, just started to sell stocks. However, early this year I began to learn the short-term hype, take out some of the money as a game play. A while ago, I have several times to mention the 16,000 points of the Hang Seng index resistance line, then 16,000 points have been breached, the Hang Seng index straight up to 17,685 points, rose to many people like to determine the advent of the bull market on the 250 daily line began to turn around, then a sharp rebound, but this level.　　In theory, no one on hand does not have to rush to buy stocks, and a more presentable round of adjustments is most likely to emerge.　　Of course, according to the theory of short-term speculation, you can say that the adjustment of the past few days can be said to be just a shock warehouse, after a shock warehouse will be again high innovation.　　Alas, the short-term hype is indeed very difficult, I continue to hold the shares have been held, continue to wait and see. Last week, I poured cold water on Hong Kong stock ETFs, and I think there will be a difference in share prices in the future after the successful listing of ETFs in Shanghai, and the rise in Shanghai's ETF stocks may not necessarily be beneficial to HK-listed stocks.　　However, in the future, once the ETF is successfully listed in Shanghai, the market will still have a round of speculation, speculation which stock will be listed in Shanghai. Long-term layout of steel plate just in time ⊙ national Yuan Securities Research Center Consulting Department of Steel Plate recently appeared a more substantial increase in prices, due to steel price evencontinued to rally around, so the intrinsic reason for the rise in steel stocks last week was a rise in prices.　　The factors that determine the ultimate trend of all stocks are listed company's performance, the government's money to stimulate the economy can long-term and fundamentally reverse the problem of domestic overcapacity, can really play a role in revitalizing the economy, with long-term sustainable development prospects? It's not the only reason. From the supply point of view, the steel companies issued a limited-value measures appear to have received some success, but this may not be the most critical factor, the price is saved, sales are not up, the performance is still not good-looking. Therefore, the rise in steel prices, in the current obvious buyer's market, the increase in demand should be the decisive factor, and the price of the seller is not related.　　In addition, China's large steel companies are still too fragmented, its price alliance is loose, so the whole industry combined to limit the value of the problem easier thing. Historical data show that April is the traditional steel demand season. In addition, the domestic industry revitalization plan effect shows, automobile and real estate, the two large steel demand gradually become exuberant. Moreover, as steel prices rise, traders ' worries about price prospects and restocking of inventories are also one of the reasons for the expansion of demand. But the traders replenishment inventory and the April demand season will only have a short-lived impact on steel prices, the real long-term role in steel prices are still downstream enterprises demand. Whether the car, real estate recovery can be sustained still need to observe, the long-term trend of steel prices remain uncertain.　　Therefore, if the iron and steel stocks only from the point of view, can only be regarded as short-term trading opportunities, the excavation of iron and steel stocks in the middle of the opportunity to consider only from the idea of the rise is not enough. Industry growth has yet to wait for China's steel imports in April, the first amount since 2006. This from a side shows that the current price of steel with a certain seasonal, or even blindness. As the domestic car, real estate and other industries rebound driven steel demand has a relatively sudden pulse-type growth, suffering from high price cost inventory and the bottom price of product inventory torture of steel companies finally caught a price increase opportunity, of course, will not miss. Unfortunately, the information age, most of the price barriers have disappeared, if foreign steel plus transport costs are still cheaper than domestic prices, it is difficult to imagine what substantial factors to support the long-term rise in steel prices. So the current steel prices can only be a piece of transportation costs, Rob International shipping, container terminal money. Once prices break the "international Steel Price" + "transport costs" of the tipping point, all the price behavior can be considered to the United States, Europe, Southeast Asia, Russia's steel companies in the pockets of money. So before the next big bull market in commodity markets, it's hard for steelmakers to really make big profits. Of course, not excluding individual steel companies have some unique core competitiveness, but the recovery of the entire industry must depend on the strong demand and commodity market bull.　　From the whole industry, including domestic and foreign, the steel industry is difficult. The government supports the prospect of Baosteel to buy Nanjing steel South Steel, saddle the group'sIntegration and the integration of the Tang steel department are all in the same purpose-to increase industry concentration, reduce inefficient capacity, create several steel giants in order to win the future in the international market rivals. At present, the world's steel production capacity is surplus, only the Chinese government has the strength to take money to support domestic enterprises continue to maintain high production capacity, because of domestic vigorously promote infrastructure construction to protect growth, China's High-yield can still be digested.　　Under these circumstances, China's steel companies will quickly occupy more market share in the absence of good performance, and in the next 10 years, the possibility of China's emergence of world-class steel enterprises is not non-existent. Back to the steel stock market, because the price is difficult to have a big decline, steel stocks are basically at the bottom, and its finishing time is enough. From the point of view of the rise, there are not many opportunities for steel stocks, but in the strong mergers and acquisitions expected, the rich trading machine will emerge. The main line of investment in iron and steel industry is mainly mergers and acquisitions, investors should try to explore. We found that quite a lot of steel stocks recently have more obvious signs of financial intervention, the Central line of the gradual involvement of the stock market form will not quickly go bad, there is the possibility of the center of the start. If a long economic period of more than 10 years is divided, the steel industry may have a better performance in the new economic upward cycle, as it seizes enough market share and voice in the downturn. In view of the long-term advantages of China's steel companies, strategic investors can be at this point in the layout of steel stocks.　　Words summed up is: The rise can not be expected too high, the funds involved in the middle line of opportunity, the long-term layout of the time. Up and down space are limited ⊙ the first Shanghai Securities Ye Shangzhi yesterday, the Hang Seng index first, the plate shocks intensified, the Hang Seng index of the day and the amplitude of the high and low point of nearly 700 points, the volatile market trend once again stimulated the speculative mentality of investors, Hong Kong continues to become a short-term speculators paradise. Hong Kong's economic contraction in the first quarter of the impact of the news, coupled with the global influenza A pandemic is still spreading and spread, Hong Kong stocks yesterday opened a fall of more than 300 points, but the low occurrence of the bottom of the action, Hong Kong can gradually regain lost ground.　　The mainland a-share market in midday trading to rise, but also to a Hong Kong stocks to push the high pretext. The Hang Seng index closed at 17,023 points, up 232 points, and turnover rebounded to HK $66.3 billion. The amplification of volume is a signal of profit, but we think that the capital flow should be further increased to more than HK $80 billion, Hong Kong stocks can have the opportunity to go up again, otherwise, Hong Kong stocks may continue to repeat the trend of consolidation, the stock continues to differentiate. On the other hand, as the stock market has been running for more than two months, the index has risen to relative highs, and valuations are not particularly cheap, with the Hang Seng Index and the state-owned companies index earning 15 times and 14 times times the expected P/E ratios respectively.　　Before the global economy can be further improved, there is little likelihood that the medium and long-term funds will be Jianning at the current level, which could lead to a volatile pattern of Hong Kong stocks. Although the Hong Kong stock is unlikely to break up in the short term, the wave will rise again, but the initiative sell is temporarilyNot seen, especially in the past two days of the rebound process, the bears did not seize the opportunity to establish positions, the potential of the Hong Kong stock is not very big. In such a market situation, a share of the trend of differentiation, capital and short-term speculation small stock is very normal behavior. As the stock index short-term rise in the space is limited, and the most relevant stock index, now the level of participation in the benefit rate has declined, therefore, short-term funds to the small stocks, yesterday, there were 32 small stocks rose more than 20%, ranked first in the list is the resources of China, its after the card, the share price rose 83.7% a day. In addition to small stocks, some of the news and the subject of the second-line shares have also received market attention, China Ocean is one of them, Cosco is one of the few failed to return to the 250 daily average of the second-line stocks, yesterday close to HK $8.54, Rose 8.9%, But there is still a 17% margin of HK $9.984 from the 250 daily average.　　The Baltic Sea index recently hit a 7-month high, and a pick-up in shipping costs has given the market an excuse to pursue the Chinese ocean. Long under the shadow of the main force of embarrassment ⊙ Hu Han this Monday red somewhat reluctantly, early plate Shanghai Composite Index once plunged, below 5 daily average and 10th EMA, with coal stocks and steel stocks and other funds of the overall active stocks, the stock index finally reversed.　　The long shadow line was collected, but the long shadow line revealed the main force's embarrassment. Recent market trends have been a number of deviations from the previous period of 160 billion shrinking to the recent 120 billion, the index is rags higher, the main driving force is of course the performance of the index unit, but the other stocks did not sync up, but there are signs of continuous adjustment. Yesterday, when the index shares a full rest, the stock index appeared to break the signs, fortunately, the subject-matter stocks in time to keep up with some of the market sentiment, in the stock index fell to the lowest, and did not appear to stop the stock, indicating that investors do not panic. But if the index runs under the 10th EMA for a long time, the technical form will look very ugly, in the case of forced, coal plate rose, open coal industry tenacious fill right, Kailuan Clean coal acceleration limit, all coal stocks collective start, because the coal plate early increase has been large, quickly pulled up will enter malaria, If the future coal stocks appear big adjustment, and yesterday's strong pull related.　　But in any case, the stock index is still tenacious pull back, many won the operation time and space, but in the current relatively sensitive time and space, vibration adjustment will recur. Yesterday, the Yangtze River Power high profile, according to the Yangtze River Power Quarterly report, the company's total assets of 57.7 billion yuan, the total liability of 19.43 billion yuan, the acquisition of 107.5 billion yuan assets, for the company is undoubtedly staged a "snake swallow Elephant" drama. From the early stage of the performance of stock prices, more than the gap is relatively large, but the trend is basically stable. Because the lock of a large amount of money, these funds naturally have rushed out of the desire, but the long electricity restructuring is still a little attractive, from yesterday's performance, for the market is still favorable. Long-power strength is not only the significance of power stocks haveThe leader, but shows the asset securitization, especially the central enterprises securitization has a very good benchmark, so the two quarter will also be around the reorganization theme drama.　　As far as power shares are concerned, there are already some similar movements in the Yangtze River Power, Sichuan investment energy and national electricity, which do not preclude other companies from emulating, and there are very big opportunities for power shares.　　Recent turnover has been showing a shrinking trend, will directly restrict the rebound space, but the subject and low price stocks relatively active, can be appropriate to participate in the adjustment in place, there are assets of the rumors of a stock, but the overall investment or to be cautious. Dorin against Shanghai Bo friends on the May 19, 2009 Market View: See more 60.8% See flat 2.99% See the empty 36.21% see the Shanghai index yesterday after Yang, a small yang, the weight of the stock trend is still weak, but the policy of warm, people's minds, rebound has further deepened the possibility.　　In the short term, because yesterday has rebounded continuously three hours, today's inertia to create new highs will be a small return to file finishing, but the whole day bullish. (a hand) see the empty reason a-share market has broken through one platform after another, the impact has become a bold game game. In the face of this 2,600-point platform, the proposed risk-resistant ability to give up the last possible upward breakthrough platform, back to 2,450 points after the first target bit back to often (Ghana's son) under the support of more robust ⊙ Citic Gold pass securities money to strength yesterday in Shanghai and Shenzhen B-share market first, and then Yang, early plate Shanghai and Shenzhen B followed a A-shares to weaken , Shanghai B refers to 170 points up and down the concussion, the afternoon more than a gradual attack, the index steadily pushed high, the final B-share index turned red and innovative high. Shanghai B refers to a return of 173.02 points, the increase of 0.83%, Shen Chengzhi reported at 3111.87, up to 0.71%.　　B-share market is expected to remain strong, after the shock finishing continue upwards. From the overall view, the B-share market callback, the lower support is stronger, the EMA system long arrangement further divergence, medium-term trend to good.　　Short-term shocks do not turn to good trends, B-share market will still shake up and regain the rally, and create a new high. Today will be exerting force onslaught 2,700 o ' Young Moudong yesterday afternoon, as the author said, the market on schedule to stabilize the rally, as of the close, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index slightly higher, with long shadow line of the small Yang line.　　After this battle, the market strength revealed exhaustive. It is clear that yesterday's market focus is that we are more worried about the Yangtze River Power after the card may be out of the continuous replenishment of the market, thereby driving the market downward. To be aware, the Yangtze River Power suspended from May 8, 2008 to last more than a year, when the Shanghai Composite index was 3,579 points, and last weekend only 2,645 points, a decrease of 26%.　　Planning for the long-term suspension of major asset restructuring, after the flop by the same period, the impact of the decline of the case is not uncommon. From the institutional capital flow, as the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes rebounded to a new high, some institutions continue to take the early sale, midday plate to buyShort-term operation strategy, in order to cash short-term profit chips. Yesterday morning, a large single net outflow of about 3.8 billion in Shanghai, Shen large single net outflow of about 1.4 billion yuan.　　But in the afternoon, once again, a small return to the inflow of statistics, yesterday, the whole day, the Shanghai large single net outflow about 3.9 billion, Shen large single net outflow of about 1.2 billion yuan. From the technical point of view, yesterday morning, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes once fell below the 5 daily average and 10th EMA, the broad market of various technical indicators of the shape of a certain degree of damage.　　However, after the afternoon of a fierce fighting, KDJ indicator dead fork downward situation to be reversed, MACD indicator Red column continued to shorten, indicating that the short-term market trend is again tightly controlled by many parties. In the Friday, the author in the review "week line to collect the cross star, new high-frequency now show passion" a article has said, combined with the recent domestic policy and the trend of the surrounding market changes, the author believes that, on the surface, the Shanghai Composite index of 2,700 points is indeed a heavy pressure, but, as the market for the April macro-data psychological worries gradually fade, It is expected that this week will still conquer 2,700 points of Highland, but the process of siege may be more difficult and tragic.　　At present, I still adhere to the above view. Yesterday, the State Council issued the petrochemical Industry adjustment and revitalization planning, this shows that the policy of sustained support is worth looking forward to.　　On this basis, we can still be optimistic that the rebound will continue. Yesterday morning, the reason for a panic crash, mainly investors on the Yangtze River Power recovery is a kind of uneasy mentality. But fortunately, the Yangtze River power to a contrarian, it can be said that the market is completely unexpected. Afternoon, the market really stable rebound, and the market regained 5 daily average and 10th average. In the face of this trend, we can only sigh that the market long kinetic energy is unusually strong.　　If there is no accident, today's market will also inertia, many parties will be a long siege of 2,700 points launched an onslaught. Lead the hot spot rotating market high tide ⊙ Gold Lark Investment Qin Hong Yesterday the market out of the low open to stabilize the rebound trend, especially after the city in the coal stocks, such as the lead up the hot traction under repeated strength, thus making the Shanghai Composite Index on the day chart left a long line of yang, short-term trend seems to be optimistic again.　　How to look at this trend? Hot-spot rotating force anti-empty side of the trend of yesterday morning is really not optimistic, on the one hand, because the market has formed a downward force, such as real estate stocks, especially China Merchants Real estate, Vanke A and other leading real estate stocks have shown signs of the head, the downward trend is indeed clearer; on the other hand, due to the further contraction in turnover,　　Show that the market initiative buying insufficient, the stock market has always been rowing against the tide, as long as there is no active buying, some of the wavering chips will come in, which makes the market trend pressure heavy, which may also be the early plate of the Shanghai Composite index down 2,600 points of the reason. However, many parties in the recent trend of the formation of operational inertia--in the market led not particularly strong background, as long as the launch of a rising pioneer, the wavering chips will remain in the state of ownership, intoand quickly change the market multiple empty competition pattern. such as the start of the Friday leader of the lead is the pharmaceutical unit, especially the Rhine biological, da an gene and other biological stocks. Yesterday, Panjiang shares, Datong coal industry and other coal stocks have outstanding performance, while the potential coal shares Anyuan shares, oil-building, too-Tiancheng and other stocks also soared, which quickly gathered market sentiment, the plate with the firm rebound.　　This shows that the use of hot-spot rotation of the operating methods to reach the force to play, traction the market to stabilize the rebound. The current market is in a relatively awkward position, on the one hand because the volume can shrink, the lack of strong rising strength, on the other hand because the market lack of the plate or say the opportunity to sell heavily, so, only need to start a more concentrated leader of the lead, can resolve the short-term market adjustment pressure,　　leading to the market out of the situation of the near misses. In other words, as long as the market has followed by leading the leader, the short line will be difficult to deep down, or even do not rule out similar to the Monday a-share market low open also can slowly rise trend. From the current plate, the market does exist such opportunities, mainly in two areas, one is the industry recovery investment theme still have funds. For example, the downstream demand for relatively determined wind power equipment stocks, nuclear power and other new energy stocks, the sea and land heavy industry, Huarui steel casting, such as the new energy industry chain stocks strong higher is an example.　　Interestingly, Monday short real estate plate is also a warm wind frequency blowing, the situation of the price Zisheng of the industry, as such, real estate stocks after a brief adjustment, do not rule out the funds in the Fund, such as the traction of funds, to dissolve the short-term head of the possible, thus becoming the market rotation leading the lead. Second, the theme of investment. This refers to the resource unit, which is now largely affected by changes in commodity prices, and there is still a further upward trend in oil prices, after all, in the context of a weaker dollar and a global economic recovery, the potential for global hot money to gather oil again is not ruled out, thus leading to higher oil prices. Under the influence, the commodity prices such as nonferrous metals stocks and coal shares still have the possibility of becoming the vanguard of the rotating collar.　　At the same time, the theme of the industry revitalization plan, regional investment theme is still possible to dig again, yesterday media published a media industry revitalization plan of information, coupled with the revitalization of the new energy industry plans, etc., so expected short-term traction the market rose. High hover in the reappearance of structural opportunities to sum up, the current market is indeed in a dilemma of the pattern, into, the lack of financial support, the recent market turnover rapidly shrinking, Shanghai's volume can be 100 billion to 120 billion yuan wandering is the best explanation. And the power generation and other data also restricts the Fund and other institutions of the big money to buy, which means that the market short-term difficult to form a new round of the main wave; Moreover, the market is also short of a relatively clear short range, as a result, the market is very likely to form a high level of the pattern of linger.　　At this point, as long as there is a relatively clear leader of the lead, the market may be small Yang breakthrough.The short-term market is still likely to reproduce structural opportunities, with two types of stocks traceable, first, it is expected to become a rotating pioneer varieties, auto stocks, real estate stocks, new energy stocks, resource stocks and other varieties can be tracked; second, the expected fundamental changes in the varieties, such as the controlling shareholder has to change the expected or relevant information of the stock, preoccupy, Fenghua Hi-Tech, Buddha-Plastic shares, star Lake Technology, South Huitong and other shares can be concerned about. In addition, to have the acquisition of the subject matter or have a new strength shareholder equity shares can also be tracked.