The contribution rate of investment will further enhance the economic "insurance Eight"

CFP Photo Drawing/Jianhua The Ministry of Finance officials said May 27 at a news conference held at the new state office that, as of April 30, the new central investment has been issued 392.4 billion yuan, the round 1.18 trillion central investment issued more than One-third.　　In the previous April, China's fixed asset investment growth rate increased to 30.5%, investment on the "growth" of the pulling role gradually reflected. Experts pointed out that due to inventory reduction and other factors, China's fixed asset investment in the second half of the GDP contribution rate will be further improved, the investment pull rate is expected to reach 4.6%-4.7% this year, strong investment growth has greatly increased our GDP "Bao-eight" hope.　　At the same time, we should pay attention to play the active role of this round of investment in "adjusting structure" and digesting excess capacity. High investment growth is expected to continue although the haze of the international financial crisis has yet to disperse, China is showing strong investment demand. January-April, urban fixed asset investment growth of 30.5%, the growth rate has been in the higher level since the reform and opening-up. "After deducting the price factor, the real growth rate of investment in April has exceeded 35%." While the growth rate of investment in individual months of 1993 was over 60%, the real growth rate was below 30%.　　Chen Dongki, deputy dean of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic Research Institute. In the previous April, China's total investment in new projects began to increase 90.7% year-on-year, increasing the growth rate than the first quarter. and local investment growth has gradually surpassed the central investment, which indicates that the rapid growth of fixed assets investment is expected to continue in the short term, the central investment is gradually reflected the driving effect.　　Some brokerages believe that the nominal growth rate of investment is expected to remain above 30% in the second to three quarters of this year. Investment growth is gradually higher, the 4 trillion investment pull effect is undoubtedly the first. Mu Hong, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a press conference on the implementation of the expansion of domestic demand and growth in 1-April, agriculture, Water Conservancy, transportation, education, health, environmental protection and other investment growth rate of 35%-85%, construction machinery, building materials,　　The production situation in the field of investment products such as electromechanical equipment has improved.　　Shaochun, deputy Treasury secretary, said that as of April 30, the new central investment has been issued a total budget of 392.4 billion yuan, accounting for 4 trillion of 1.18 trillion new central investment in 33.3%. In addition, this year, China has introduced a number of expansion of domestic demand growth policy measures. For example, the release of 20 billion yuan enterprise technology reform funds, is expected to stimulate direct social investment of 460 billion yuan.　　And the adjustment of capital ratio of investment projects, energy-saving products, such as Huimin project will also help to promote investment and domestic demand growth. More than 30% of the investment growth rate, both faster than the first two years in China during the rapid economic cycle of investment speed, but also higher than the central government for this year's fixed assets investment growth of more than 20% of the expectations. Shaanxi Development and Reform Commission Economic Research Institute Liu Yansong that the high growth of investment construction projects, on the one hand from the previous few years to prevent overheating is a temporary backlog of projects, on the other hand, should be vigilantThere are items "impostors" that do not meet the approval criteria. Investment-driven levels are expected to increase China's GDP growth by 6.1% in the first quarter, with investment, consumption and net exports pulling 2.0, 4.3 and 0.2% respectively.　　According to the expenditure method, as the first quarter inventory investment digestion has gradually come to an end, after two quarters, the total capital formation calculation of investment demand will be further enhanced.　　Fan, chief economist and director of economic forecasting at the National Information Center, said that the two-quarter investment-pull rate would increase by 1.5%-2%, which would boost GDP growth by 3.5%-4%. For the whole year, the chief economist of CICC believes that the first three batches of central investment amounted to 300 billion yuan, plus a previous reduction in some of the project's capital ratios. By this measure, government-led investment in the last four quarters may have exceeded 1 trillion yuan. If consumer demand growth can stabilize around 4%, this year's investment pull is expected to reach 4.6%-4.7%.　　In this way, even if the external need for negative growth, the annual GDP still hope to reach about 7.8%. Some experts pointed out that last year, when the central government set up the "eight" goal, most of the industry estimated that this year, China's net exports can maintain a positive growth of 5% or 10%.　　In the context of this year's rapid decline in foreign trade, strong investment growth has undoubtedly greatly increased China's economic growth "Bao 8" hope. However, the performance of this round of investment to promote economic restructuring remains to be seen.　　From a positive point of view, the first quarter of China's fixed assets investment to maintain high growth rate, reflecting the first to third industry faster than the secondary, the Midwest region investment faster than the east, the growth of Non-state-owned investment accelerated and so good momentum. From the other side, in recent years, China's consumption contribution rate has been gradually lower, economic growth is too dependent on investment and exports, economic peaks and valleys affected by fixed asset investment is particularly serious.　　While government investment is the most direct and effective means of growth, it is likely to exacerbate the risk of structural imbalances in the short term, and the quality of investment-led growth has yet to be tested.　　Beware of investment "worries" some industry insiders pointed out that the high growth of fixed asset investment behind the "worry" is also whether it will aggravate the relative excess capacity, and investment rapid rebound brought about by the quality of economic growth can guarantee. In this regard, NEW, director of macroeconomic affairs at the Ministry of Economic forecasting of the National Information Center, believes that the new investment area determines whether overcapacity will be exacerbated. If the new investment mainly to the infrastructure, livelihood projects and other outstanding areas, it will not aggravate the pressure of overcapacity, but will consume the already surplus steel, cement and other industrial capacity. And if you invest in areas that already have a lot of excess, it is possible to create low-level duplication. Private investment, for profit, may be less likely to be invested in a relatively surplus industry.　　But government investment, especially by local governments, is likely to exacerbate overcapacity. Liu Yansong that the current need to be vigilant as a result of insufficient internal and external demand for excess investment to the overcapacity industry, but also wary of the flow even if demand is flourishingSheng but still should be strictly restricted "two to a capital" and other industries.　　However, for industrial investment should be divided into the situation, like some large-scale industrial renovation projects need 3-5 years of construction time, the future production may be domestic and foreign overcapacity pressure has been greatly alleviated. The quality of economic growth brought about by investment should also be concerned.　　Haitong Securities recently released a research report that the fixed assets investment effect coefficient (new gdp/fixed asset investment) can intuitively reflect the macro-income of investment, the factor in the high economic growth period after the decline, and with the economic fluctuations in the same direction. The report said that in the United States, for example, in 1961-2003, the U.S. fixed asset investment effect coefficient remained around 0.2, the economic downturn, the effect factor also fell. The effect coefficient of China's fixed assets investment has continued to decline after 1992, which is close to the US long-term average of 0.2.　　1992, each hundred yuan fixed assets investment can cause the GDP to increase 45.5 yuan, by 2003 each hundred yuan fixed assets investment may only make the GDP increase 24.2 yuan. New that in the medium to long term, social investment is more stimulating to economic growth than government investment. 30 years of reform and opening up the data show that the government's capital growth of 1% per cent led to GDP growth of 0.31%, social capital per increase of 1% led to GDP growth of 0.38%. At present, we must seize the opportunity to realize the power of economic growth from government investment to social investment transfer. New suggested that the new investment growth point should be cultivated actively. Relax market access and broaden the areas and channels of social investment. Through tax, fiscal discount, government procurement and other policies to support small and medium-sized enterprises to promote social investment.