The fire in the bubble, how long can the hand swim?

Hand-travel bubble may be a false proposition, because only when the bubble burst in order to judge the bubble, but now can only say that the hand Zhang looks still very beautiful to eat but taste self-knowledge.

So why do we have to discuss hand bubbles?

Now the industry often say such a word, there are 2 million of dollars in cash and a bunch of Little brother code, you can also open a game company. In fact, in the "giant" Shi Yuzhu with "journey" to the NYSE ring bell, the market has begun to find the game industry in the huge gold deposit, but did not lift a "gold rush."

Very simple, because at that time the game industry is not everyone can play: huge upfront investment and marketing costs are daunting, more development cycle longer, game products, such as a single product competition and many other adverse factors.

Suddenly the hand tour turned out to be born! The Chinese hand swims dynastic, in strict sense also only two years only: 2013 is known as the champion Lang Yuanying, in 2014, but quickly have a hand tour "bubble" questioning: The alleged capacity is too high, product homogeneity serious, the market is inflated, channel monopoly and other finished "charges", even at that time, some people asserted that "bear market will".

July 30, just released the "China Game Industry Report" data show: In the first half of 2014, the Chinese game market real sales revenue of 49.62 billion yuan, an increase of 46.4%. Among them, mobile games contribute 12.52 billion yuan, web game contribution 9.18 billion. In the same period last year, mobile games and web game sales revenue of 2.53 billion and 5.34 billion respectively.

The user response was so hot, the capital reaction was more fanatical, and the data showed that the industry itself was generating increments. Why at the same time the question of "bubbles" emerges endlessly?

So easy+ "One night Mountain"

Compared to the technical level of the end-travel, capital requirements, development cycle, hand travel from the genetic perspective seems to be more suitable for those who "play a vote on the go", its threshold can be high and low. Low, it can be negligible.

For example, Guangzhou, a company with a more concentrated hand tour, local media have reported that many of the number of hand tour enterprises less than 100 people, or even "some only more than 10 employees", and "a mobile phone game companies to start the price of 2 million yuan" of the cost of those months running water on the expectations of billions of dollars is nothing.

Hand Tour development time is generally shorter, in half a year or so, the longest also 8 months, and the development of an end-product is up to 2-3 years. Development time of the well-off means that the start of the trip can continue to try to make mistakes, a piece of product is not the player's mind, immediately overturned, or directly on the market, the popular hand-travel products "cottage" down.

Analysys International "2014 China Mobile Internet Animation industry Research Report" data show that in the current Chinese mobile phone game market, the game online every day more than 3, the year-on-year growth of nearly 300%, is in the research and development of hand travel products are nearly 7,000.

"Such ' high productivity ' is clearly not a normal phenomenon, and many of these games simply change the game to a new theme," the analysis said. Even, a "no cottage, or rather die" slogan Dare shout out.

Low cost and high efficiency imitation makes "one night Cottage" widely popular in the industry, become "one night Mountain" phenomenon. But this model will also encounter its due obstacles-copyright dispute.

"Crazy Guess" was known as the "4-person team spent less than 100,001 months of development" miracle, but also pointed to the German game "Icomania" background, button UI details almost identical. The end result is that the game June 2013 online, August is no longer updated.

In the hands of the end of the Lang Yuanying, the port network and touch-control technology between the "fishing Tatsu Man" has been the fight for mutual plagiarism. And the unseen disputes are more submerged underwater.

Playing with capital or doing content?

In the eyes of all who do content or make products, the following sentence is hurtful: "The Chinese market for hand travel is a market for capital operations, not a product-king market." "Let's not assert that this sentence is really able to reflect the real situation of China's hand tour market, at least to show around the hand tour, the capital of the game is playing."

The data show that since 2013, the company's mergers and acquisitions ratio has soared from 10 times to forty or fifty times or hundreds, and is now down twenty or thirty times times. According to incomplete statistics, since 2013, at least 18 listed companies have launched the acquisition of game companies, more has made significant progress. It also embodies the two common characteristics: one of the listed companies previously did not involve the game business, mergers and acquisitions of the company is "Cross-border", the second merger and acquisition projects are signed with the exchange of "gambling agreement."

"The merger of the Hand tour company presents a group of sexual behavior, in the market is also very normal, because the market is also rational and irrational time." "The Phoenix media source, who launched the acquisition of the game company project last year, said 36 Krypton.

Let's look at a concrete example:

Founded in March 2012, the Travel Time (Beijing) Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "The time of Travel") in the year did not achieve profitability, still loss of about 11 million yuan. In turn, in 2013 years to achieve a successful 390 million yuan net profit, and on this basis to impress Shanghai Stock Exchange, one of the old stereotyped Shanghai Company (hereinafter referred to as "love to make Shares") launched a takeover offer, the price of 1.18 billion yuan.

However, love so that shares in the previous is a genuine coal mining sales enterprises, the main business and the hands of no intersection, a burst into the game of water, "old stereotyped" love so that the stock phase is also the game company's huge water and profits. Because, compared to love to make shares last year only more than 4 million yuan net profit, no doubt the hand tour is far more value than the coal mine "gold."

To this end, in the "Gambling agreement", the counterparty to the next three years of the net profit to make a commitment, not less than 100 million yuan, 120 million yuan and 144 million yuan. This form also occurs in almost all listed companies ' mergers and acquisitions of gaming companies.

In love so that the shares announced the above news, one months to pull 8 trading board.

Last year, Huayi Brothers spent 672 million on the acquisition of Silverside Technology 50.88% equity; this year, the Chinese media to 2.66 billion acquisition of Wisdom star Qualcomm, light media June 30 evening announced that the company will be its own capital of 160 million yuan to acquire Beijing Wit Network Technology Co., Ltd. 26.667% equity. "Basically the whole market presents such a phenomenon, startups have a fire game, you can be acquired." "A senior executive who declined to be named by a tour company said to 36 Krypton.

He further concluded that the hand tour capital market play a common situation: pioneering company "First World War fame" financing success, VC through the start-up company's acquisition or listing profit, and the listed companies through the hand Sarati vibration price, if necessary, additional or change shares. So the final pay is still shareholders.

In the capital market tide, the hand swims to turn up a not small spray, but compared to the ascendant hand tour industry, the capital is like a catalyst, in the hand swims the test tube to inject the ripening ingredient unceasingly.

How long can you play like this?

Before we talk about this problem, we first look at an industry that has been hyped in previous years--group buying. There were as many as 6,000 companies in the country when the capital was first ripened, and now it has shrunk to 176, with a survival rate of only 3%.

Some people say that "hand tour" is like the "buy" concept in previous years, by many parties to create a multicolored bubble, everyone plays a role in it, some people say that the current hand tour business is more like the electric Company, do the platform than do content more important, all kinds of way to listing is the top priority.

These statements are slightly extreme, but there is no doubt that the former game companies are spending their own money to do products, smashing the market, is a real industry. Today, hand tour companies are spending money on investors, either VC or listed companies. Hand tour, has become more and more unlike a game industry.

One more thing to think about is the fact that most of the tour companies are not making money now, or that the company that makes money is a small proportion of the total number of companies in the overall market. The same is the industry almost silently recognized the judgment is that the current 80% or more of the hands of the company, will eventually die.

In this market situation, the "2014 Global mobile gaming Industry white paper" still shows that 2013 China Mobile game Market size has reached 12.092 billion yuan, 2014 or will reach 23 billion yuan. We are more inclined to think that the number of human manipulation behind this figure is hard to estimate.

At the end of April of this year, the SFC, in the form of a question-and-answer report on listed companies, made a statement on the related matters involving gaming companies in the merger and reorganization, and requested special disclosures on the business details of the reorganization, while requiring independent financial advisers to improve the verification methods around the performance authenticity of Combined with a series of previous moves, the market believes that the merger of game companies will be the future direction of strict regulation.

"Strict regulation is a good thing. Hand-swimming bubble is hype up, there are some hand tour company's details how hard to say, and some poor performance of the listed companies ' cage ' considerations also follow the hype, think about it really should be more cautious. "A capital market has been involved in a number of mergers and acquisitions," 36 Krypton Analysis.