The Hong Kong group's valuation gap is a double blue chip bubble at the beginning?

-Cai Xiaoming with the index of the hesitated upward, blue chip valuations in the near future, but in the face of still weak fundamentals, as well as the uncertainty of the macro-economic, institutional differences are increasing, in some hot blue chips, Chinese and foreign institutions of the valuation differences reached one-fold. Is it that foreign institutions are too persistent and calm, or that domestic institutions are overly optimistic? The above Hong Kong group, for example, has a valuation of 3.1 yuan, rated "sell". Citic Securities gave a valuation of 6 yuan, rated "overweight".　　Blue-chip bubbles appear to be on the rise in the upbeat ratings of domestic research institutions following the market. April 27, on the 09 quarterly report published by the Hong Kong Group (600018), operating income decreased by 13% to 3.7 billion yuan Year-on-year, net profit decreased by 28% to 734 million yuan, and recurrent net profit decreased by 39% to 598 million yuan. The company's shares fell 4.2% per cent on the day of the announcement, but turned upside down on the second day. As of May 6, the shares have risen more than 14% since the release of the quarterly report.　　In addition to the previous national construction of International Shipping Center, the policy of a positive stimulus to the price increase, the Hong Kong group in one months to gain 50%.　　Is this divergence between stock prices and fundamentals a reasonable return to the company's valuation or a bubble brewing? There is a big disagreement between the brokerage fellows. First-quarter results fell sharply from the fundamental point of view, the port group's container business 80% of the Foreign trade box, of which 52% from the European line, the United States and Japan. 2009, under the influence of the world economic situation, the company's box volume growth is facing the grim situation.　　Throughout the first quarter, the company's container throughput fell 15.1% year-on-year, and the new terminal depreciation amortization, labor costs increase caused the operating costs did not fall year-on-year, net profit margin fell more than 6%. Most brokerages are not optimistic about the group's performance in the two quarter, and UBS Securities expects the weakness of the throughput to continue into the 2 quarter of 09, while the second half of 09 will recover as external demand recovers.　　The company's throughput may be boosted by transshipment, empty boxes and domestic container growth, but profitability may be reduced by a reduction in revenue per container. Why is the sharp decline in performance reflected in the two-tier market is the rise in share prices? Some of the domestic agencies in the report that the market is concerned about the pilot port of the Hong Kong Tax rebate policy on the Hong Kong group brought about by the positive impact.　　March 25 This year, the State Council adopted the principle of "to promote Shanghai to accelerate the development of modern services and advanced manufacturing, the construction of China's International Financial Center and International Shipping Center." The tax refund policy of the pilot port of Yangshan port is one of the key policies in Shanghai construction of the International Shipping Center. According to this policy, as long as the domestic goods confirmed to leave the port of shipment to the Yangshan Port transit to the outside, that is, is regarded as export and refund.　　At present, the ships in the north of China are generally able to enjoy the tax rebate policy of Busan, South Korea Transit, if the Yangshan port to start the tax refund policy, will be diverted Busan Transit box volume. Domestic and foreign institutions have dividedLarge and close inspection of the securities brokerage reports on the Hong Kong Group of shares of the view found that domestic and foreign brokerages on the company's share price forecasts vary greatly. In terms of performance forecasts. UBS Securities Forecast 2009 Company operating income of 18.113 billion yuan, earnings per share of 0.16 yuan, 2010 years operating income of 18.919 billion yuan, earnings per share of 0.15 yuan. Citic Securities estimated that the company 09-year operating income of 18.903 billion yuan, earnings per share of 0.19 yuan, 2010-year operating income of 19.849 billion yuan, earnings per share of 0.22 yuan. Citic Securities ' performance forecasts are clearly more upbeat. But EPS is clearly not the single factor that determines the price it gives to a target. Citic Securities gave the company a target price of 6 yuan in its research report on April 28, while UBS Securities reached a price of 3.1 yuan.　　According to this target price, UBS Securities offered a 09-year dynamic P/E ratio of 19 times times, while Citic Securities offered a 31 times-fold share price for the 09 earnings. Can the rebate policy of Yangshan port support the high valuation of the company's share price? Citic Securities pointed out that the Shanghai International Shipping Center Guidance rules will be introduced in the near future, is expected to include a series of policies such as shipping enterprises registered in the Yangshan bonded area, logistics, warehousing, loading and unloading enterprises, the most important policy The tax refund policy of the port of departure if implemented will bring substantial positive to the company, greatly increase the number of transit boxes in Yangshan port, and then enhance its competitive strength. UBS Securities, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao and other northern ports are also fighting for the port of departure tax rebate policy, the future is likely to form a competition for the Shanghai port. In addition, Shanghai to become a global shipping center by 2020 is only a long-term positive, and there is no short-term effect.　　The company's share price rose to the positive stimulus has overreacted. The upgrade is only due to "trading opportunities" in fact, Citic Securities in the maintenance of the "overweight" rating of the Hong Kong group, the reasons given by the Shanghai International Shipping Center After the introduction of the rules of the trading opportunities brought to the company. Similar to this is the recent surge in China Unicom (600050), the company's quarterly performance is lower than expected, but by the impact of the two-tier market performance, a lot of domestic brokers to increase the rating. For example, the report of the National Gold Securities issued a report on the company's share price "buy" rating. As a blue chip with high growth opportunities in the next 2-3 years, it will undoubtedly be the target of some speculative funds. But the 3G business is still in the early stages of development, the performance of uncertain whether to support high valuations is debatable, otherwise, only because of trading opportunities and the rise in ratings can only promote the accumulation of stock price bubbles.