This round of market regulation has been full March analysis of six major focus on predicting the future of the property market

The property market is becoming a difficult puzzle for all parties. In this round of property market regulation has been over three months, property prices have been loose all over the gateway, the media revealed that the information from the high-level, began in April to curb the rapid rise in prices of short-term regulation has been announced, the focus of property control began to shift to "home ownership of the housing" long-term regulation.　　The mutual corroboration is that the recent Beijing second-hand property prices quickly turn upward. However, yesterday's "first half of the national land market Dynamic Monitoring Analysis" Report still recommended that the second half to maintain the existing real estate control policy of continuity and stability, to ensure the realization of regulatory objectives.　　The loss of policy winds is still confusing the market. In any case, the property market has its own inherent rules.　　This reporter on the people concerned about the housing market hot spot, on the following six questions will directly determine the future direction of the property market.　　1 Ask how much can the price drop in the second half? Since the introduction of the property market in April, this round of property regulation has gone through three months, the main cities have slowed down the pace of housing prices. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that June 2010, the country's 70 large and medium cities housing sales prices rose 11.4% year-on-year, the increase is 1% smaller than May, the chain fell 0.1%, May Rose 0.2%. In June, the average price of Guangzhou was 11700 yuan/square meter, the chain fell 9%, compared with the recent peak value of 13254 yuan/square meters (February average), the decline was reached 12%.　　Under the weight of regulatory policy, house prices have cooled a little. The result is a sharp drop in sales.　　According to the Central Plains real estate Company's statistics, after the series of New Deal, Guangdong Volume fell 50%, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, even once the decline of 80% to 90%. "According to the current situation, we can only carry on another year." A Guangzhou developer said. Lu Jin Real estate, deputy general manager of the Wen Liwei, said that many developers because the performance of the last year, the temporary lack of money, but the property market regulation has affected the developer's cash flow turnover speed. "At some point, developers have to promote sales to speed up cash flow, and they have to cut prices," he said.　　"It is reported that in order to deal with the decline in sales, the plight of capital repatriation, developers have begun a new round of discount promotional activities, such as Vanke in its June sales briefing made clear that Vanke's major city projects have been reduced by 15%. Will house prices fall again? Recently, the Ministry of Homeland minister anticipating's "house prices" prediction sparked a national speculation. Anticipating said, "The real estate market is showing a decline in the trend of decline, another quarter (three quarters) of the real estate market may face a comprehensive adjustment, the new Deal three quarter, housing prices will fall, but to what extent it is not good to say."　　"This is the first time since the April mid-April real estate regulation, the principal officials of the main functional departments of property management have made a statement and forecast that Chinese real estate may be fully adjusted and house prices will fall." Many in the industry said the second half of the price drop is certain, and the extent of 10%-30%. Zhongyuan Real EstateNorth China Regional managing director Li Wenjie the first round of the year, at the end of the beginning of next years, the low, estimated range of 20%-30%.　　In the second half of the year, property prices will be cut by 10% to 20%, the market Research Department of the company's brilliant group reported yesterday.　　2 ask already buy a house investor should keep or throw? New deal in the investment of speculative demand restriction policy, let many already buy the investor panic God, some people are "Brokeback to survive" in order to withdraw from the property market.　　According to the latest statistics, as of the New Deal Hundred Days, Beijing property market in the proportion of investment in housing has fallen to 14.5%. "In the first half of the year, property transactions across the country shrank, and in the second half, prices fell once, or about 40% per cent in a tier city." Grosiping, director of the Institute of International Finance at Shenzhen University's School of Economics, said that the nationwide housing price fell, suggesting that there is now a housing plan for the public, the temporary rent-oriented, and the hands of a number of houses of the public can be no use of property sold, quickly become cash.　　Grosiping think, now buy a house is when "PLA", liberate others, hold their own. Senior Real Estate expert Han Xi the same view. For investors, he says, it is now better to throw money away than hold it. "The second half of the economy will enter the downward zone, housing prices will follow the downward." Investors should sell at a time when prices are still high, or sell at low prices, or they will be stuck if they fall. There are also people in the industry who disagree. Li Wenjiang, chief analyst at Hopewell, argues that holding a longer term investment is better suited to the current economic situation than selling. "House prices have always been positively correlated with GDP, although the central government says growth will slow in the second half of the year, but will not let GDP fall very badly, so house prices will not fall too far." In fact, as far as China's national conditions, as long as the process of urbanization is not over, the property market will not end, rising is a big trend. In the long run, owning is certainly more lucrative than selling.　　"3 Ask to buy a house or buy a property stock?" Since the new deal in April, especially into the June, the first-line City real estate market has appeared in the situation of the volume of prices, two or three-tier cities, although the overall performance of the property price is still strong, but turnover has also declined sharply.　　Under the weight of the regulatory policy, the momentum of house price cooling has gradually emerged. In the housing market price downward inflection point, the first half of the oversold real estate stocks, but since June has come out of a wave of bottoming rebound. Especially into the July, real estate stock rally strong, led the market stronger.　　Prev Close from July 2 2,319 points, rebounded to the current 2,580 points near. The first half of the Shanghai-Shenzhen index fell by as much as 26.8% and 31.4%, with more than 70% per cent falling. The real estate sector has been the hardest hit, with a overall decline of more than 30%. In the last 10 years of the two big bear market, the 2005-year 998 and the 2008 1664-point history were created at the bottom. At the bottom of the two-time history, the real estate sector has a corresponding P/e ratio of 21 times and 17 times times respectively. As of July 2010, a-shareThe real estate sector's overall p/E ratio is about 22 times times, with the real estate sector trading at 19 times times the overall price on July 2, when the market bottomed at 2,319. Only from the perspective of the city's net rate, the current real estate sector security margin than the 2008 market to see the bottom of the 1664 point is still low. At that time, the real estate sector of the overall market net rate of about 3.37 times times. July 2, 2010, prev close to 2,319 points, the real estate sector of the overall market net rate of about 2.52 times times, significantly below the 1664 point of the city's net rate level.　　That is why property stocks have become the dominant force in this round of rally. The trend of property prices is downward, the trend of real estate stocks is to continue to rebound upward, this trend is difficult to change in the short term.　　Bashusong, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, points out that the stock market has rebounded steadily, even receiving 7 Lian Yang, then find developers to buy a house, rather than buy discounted real estate stocks.　　4 Ask whether the real estate tax will be issued?　　The real estate tax is passed "imminent levy" or "has been approved by the relevant departments" and other news, but so far there is no definitive conclusion. If the tax scope is to be extended to housing, it involves amending the provisional regulations and not having the right to make them.　　As for whether to levy a property tax or a real estate tax, Guangdong has no timetable yet. May 31, the State Council approved and published the National Development and Reform Commission in 2010 to deepen the economic reform of the focus of the work, the document will be "gradually promote the property tax reform", included in this year's fiscal reform objectives.　　Changbaoliang, senior economist and deputy director of the National Information Center Economic Forecasting department, said that the introduction of property tax will not wait for a long time, but it still needs to be refined. But Liu Huan, a prominent tax expert and deputy dean of the Tax Institute at the Central University of Finance and Economics, said at present, the local news revealed that the so-called "real estate special consumption tax" is not reliable, because the property special consumption tax must be a turnover tax, the need to pay taxes in the sale, which violates the real estate tax is the basic nature of property taxes, the tax is not clear.　　In addition, it also increases the burden on the buyers, making it possible to become a factor in price increases. Jihwai Ban, deputy director of the financial and financial Department of the State Council's legal office, previously disclosed through state media: "The levy of the tax on the housing sector is a fundamental measure to ensure the healthy development of the housing market, and also a radical solution to the many thorny problems facing our country at the present time, but it needs to be implemented in a step-by-step rather than overnight.　　5 Ask three mortgages will loosen? Recently, Beijing, Shanghai and other provinces have been out of the third set of mortgage loosening news, reporters recently visited the Guangzhou banks found that the Guangzhou banks three housing policy has not loosened the signs. In the new deal to limit the loan requirements and loose rumors of the mixed sound, some banks in Guangzhou continue to stop issuing three of mortgages, some banks, although not stopped lending, but control is still relatively strict, the first DundutiUp to 50%, interest rates float up to 20%. Is this tightening only because of a momentary wind or a continuing act? Lu Lei, director of China Financial Transformation and Development Research Center, Guangdong Institute of Finance, said that the second half of the mortgage policy should not be too big changes, "the second half is also difficult to relax, but it will not necessarily tighten." Although there are policies to limit the third set of mortgages, through market regulation, autonomy is still in the hands of banks. However, restrictions on the implementation of the mortgage policy, three of the tightness of the mortgage, but also to see how many follow-up policies issued. "But for banks, many three of their clients are good resources," he said. Lu Lei points out that some banks will continue to lend in order to continue to pursue clients and interests. "The Government's policy is to make the price itself stable." If market prices stabilise, banks could be tempted to lend, and bank lending would not be too loose if the housing market continued to fall. "A member of the Banking Regulatory Commission two quarterly Economic analysis meeting of a state-owned bank of a branch of the president of the newspaper said yesterday, from the Chairman of the Economic Work Conference in the statement, the second half of the policy should not have obvious changes, and the bank temporarily dare not rashly" against the Wind. " "The second half of three sets of mortgage if you want to put, can only be targeted at very high quality customers, the approval itself is much stricter." In the process of handling, we will also set many thresholds.　　"6 ask whether the regulation will give up halfway?"　　Many people fear that this round of regulation although the most stringent, but whether it will give up halfway, and even in accordance with the forecast prices fell sharply, if the government began to bail out after the rescue, will house prices return to the upstream channel? From the view of the regulatory level, the central government has made full preparations for the negative effects of the property market regulation on the macro-economy. In order to hedge the possible decline in real estate investment, the central government has allocated more than 60 billion yuan for the protection of housing construction.　　Recently, the relevant ministries and regulations of the regulatory level to show a particularly resolute attitude. Ministry of Land and resources Minister anticipating made clear that in another quarter or so the real estate market may face overall adjustment, house prices will fall. Since then, the Ministry of Housing, the Banking Regulatory Commission, SASAC, and other relevant parties on different occasions for three sets of loans to relax and other rumors made clear clarification.　　Weixin, the Minister of Housing Construction, said in public that the policy must be carried out unswervingly. More importantly, the purpose of this round of property regulation is not only to adjust the housing prices, but from the industrial restructuring of the large layout. Laiyun, deputy Director of National Bureau of Statistics, said that in the long run, the aim of real estate regulation is not only to keep the steady and rapid development of the real estate market, but also to maintain the sustainable development of the economy.　　Strengthening the regulation of real estate will have a positive effect on the healthy and stable development of real estate and sustainable development of economy. "The government has recognized the seriousness of the problem and is determined to adjust the real estate bubble," said Yixianrong, a prominent economist. From the country vigorously develop affordable housing, explore property tax reform can also be seen, about a housing reformWith the loss of the relevant parties have begun to reflect on the commercial housing, security room two legs walking housing security system is gradually improving.　　As long as the regulatory policy can be firmly carried out, the rapid rise in commercial housing will be effectively suppressed. Nanfang Daily reporter Newsiyan Huang Tian Zhiming Huangying Lu Yi intern Changling Tian Wenbo