Wang Haiyun on energy diplomatic distribution in the new ten years

Li Dongxu in the coming 2010, China's energy diplomacy has played an important role in supporting energy enterprises to "go out" and safeguard national energy security. Wang Haiyun, director of the Energy Diplomacy Research Center of China International Research Foundation, believes that the next 10 years is not only a sharp change in the international strategic environment, but also a key opportunity period for China's peaceful development.　　As China's energy security is becoming more and more dependent on foreign resources, the main energy Enterprises ' Operation center of gravity is gradually moving out, so the importance of energy diplomacy is more prominent. Three characteristics the international pattern and international order will enter the key period of great change and adjustment in the next 10 years, and this change and adjustment must affect the macroscopic environment of energy diplomacy.　　In general, China's Energy diplomacy environment has three major characteristics over the next decade. The international pattern will be in a transitional period from unipolar hegemony to multipolar checks and balances. America's hegemonic position has gradually declined, and its soft and hard power and foreign intervention ability have been reduced comprehensively. As emerging-market groups rise, the contradictions between hegemonic and emerging-market nations will be further underscored.　　The paradox will also be reflected in energy relations: the US is bound to tighten its grip on the global energy system in order to curb the rise of emerging markets; emerging market countries will inevitably have a conflict of interest with the United States to achieve their international energy interests. In the "quasi-multipolar age", the transition from unipolar world to multipolar world, the development of each power center is immature, and the mode and mechanism of global governance are far from forming, so it is easy to have chaos and disorder.　　This also determines the next decade, China's Energy diplomacy macro environment may be more complex, the Chinese energy companies "go out" opportunities and challenges at the same time increase. Second, there is still great uncertainty about the recovery of the world economy. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, emerging market countries have taken the lead in achieving economic recovery, while the economic recovery in the developed world remains gloomy.　　The economic recovery in emerging markets will spur a slow growth in energy consumption, which is conducive to the expansion of investment in energy development and the balance between supply and demand fundamentals, thus conducive to the stability of the international energy market. In addition, all countries in the world are strengthening financial supervision, will reduce the financial speculation on the international energy market interference, conducive to the stability of international energy prices, avoid its ups and downs.　　This is a good news for energy-importing countries to obtain energy resources at reasonable prices and to safeguard energy security. Third, the Low-carbon Revolution will cause major changes in energy structure. Under the background of dwindling fossil energy and increasing pressure of climate change, the Low-carbon revolution has sprung up in recent years. This is also to achieve social and economic sustainable development of the inevitable requirements. The most immediate impact of the Low-carbon revolution, with its main appeal for clean development, will be a major realignment of energy structures and energy consumption patterns, with a growing share of new, clean and renewable energy sources.　　In the long run, this change is likely to impact the original oil and gas resources of the strong position of the traditional fossil energy prices will be affected to a certain extent, the world energy pattern will be some change. Changes in the macro environment will directly or indirectly affect China's ability toThe logistics of source diplomacy. As China's energy security is becoming more and more dependent on foreign energy resources, China's energy activities will be more concentrated in the future as China's energy companies ' "go global" process accelerates. However, China's energy diplomacy still lacks systematic overseas strategic layout.　　Therefore, it is imminent to recognize the importance of international energy cooperation from a strategic perspective and formulate a forward-looking energy diplomacy strategy to unify the ideas of the main body of international energy activities and coordinate their actions. Distribution of key countries and regions the Middle East is the richest region in the world and the most important oil and gas supply in China.　　No matter how complex the situation in the region, China should steadily advance its oil and gas cooperation with the region.　　In the Middle East, the preferred target for deepening oil and gas cooperation should be those countries with abundant resources, better macro environmental conditions and less risk, such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Iraq and Iran, due to the huge potential of oil and gas productivity growth, should be the focus of my future breakthrough in the upstream field. However, the security environment is complex and there are many obstacles in international politics. Political instability in Iraq, the United States after the withdrawal of terrorist activities may rebound.　　Iran continues to be subject to international sanctions for nuclear weapons. For oil and gas cooperation with such countries, we should not only push forward, but also take risk avoidance measures, establish risk early warning and preventive mechanism, including cooperating with local government to establish own security company. In addition, Chinese oil companies should also take more measures to repay local society, benefit local people and integrate local culture, which is also an important way to protect the safety of employees and property.　　To benefit the local people and gain the trust of the local people, the local people will voluntarily protect the oil enterprises. Central Asia is a key area of China's energy diplomacy.　　The region is rich in oil and gas resources, and it borders with China, achieving mutual benefit and common development with Central Asian countries has multiple strategic significance. 2011 is the 10 anniversary of the establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (hereinafter referred to as "SCO"). The five Central Asian States, except Turkmenistan, are members of the SCO. In the framework of SCO, energy relations should be used as a prominent issue and a mechanism for harmonizing energy relations should be developed.　　Cooperation without mechanism safeguards is difficult to sustain for a long time. China's bilateral energy cooperation with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan has yielded fruitful results, but China should not be confined to existing bilateral cooperation, but should simultaneously cooperate with bilateral cooperation and multilateral cooperation.　　Promoting multilateral cooperation is not a problem, and promoting the construction of multilateral cooperation mechanism within the framework of SCO is an effective measure to strengthen energy relations between China and Central Asia and promote the development of SCO. Of course, the construction of this mechanism is a gradual process, need to coordinate the interests of all parties need to gradually running-in. China should be proactive and not afraid of challenges.　　It is advisable to adopt the "steady advance, from the virtual to the real" approach, the first to establish the SCO "Energy Forum", when the conditions are ripe and then upgraded to the SCO framework under the "Energy Organization." Northeast Asia is the northern channel of China's overseas oil and gas supply. China and Russia are the largest neighbors and strategic associationAs a partner, the strategic partnership provides a strong political guarantee for energy cooperation between China and Russia.　　Russia's Far East region is rich in oil and gas resources, geographical border also for China to use Russian oil and gas resources to provide a convenient condition. Exploiting the Asian market is conducive to the implementation of Russia's diversification strategy for energy export, and it is also of great significance for Russia to realize its integration with Asia-Pacific economy. It is believed that the energy cooperation between China and Russia will be further enhanced in the future.　　In fact, over the past year, both sides of the energy negotiations and negotiations have become increasingly active, the role of energy negotiation mechanism has become increasingly prominent. China-Russia crude oil pipeline will be formally supplied on January 1, 2011, China and Russia Tianjin refinery project is progressing smoothly, Tianwan nuclear power Plant Unit 3, 4th completed business negotiations.　　China is expected to import more than 12 million tonnes of coal from Russia in 2010, and power co-operation, such as cross-border transmission lines, is expanding rapidly. A principled agreement has been reached on the negotiation of a gas pipeline between China and Russia, and the only problem plaguing both sides is a divergence in gas prices. Nonetheless, both sides have expressed a desire to reach a final agreement on this issue in 2011.　　The "Loan for oil" model has also been successfully used in the coal sector this year and may be replicated in the gas sector. Africa is the fastest-growing region in China's energy diplomacy in recent years.　　Cooperation with Africa has increased China's overseas energy supply, on the other hand, it has promoted the economic development of African countries and helped to change the poverty and backwardness of African countries. China and many African countries have traditional friendships, and energy cooperation is progressing well in general.　　The Chinese government should strengthen the management, encourage and guide enterprises to benefit the local people at the same time, and thus create a more harmonious energy relationship. The Sudan will hold a referendum in January 2011. At present, the south is more likely to be independent. And the independence of the South may bring a series of new problems, including how to properly deal with the North-South relations, the lack of governance capacity of the South Government. But if the south receives a referendum, it must be prepared to cooperate with the South and establish good relations with the North and the south.　　Not only from the perspective of oil and gas resources, but also from the international political and diplomatic strategy of the high degree of consideration. The key country in South America is Venezuela. Venezuela's enthusiasm for developing energy relations with China is very high, and it is also an important consideration to promote the development of the oil industry with the help of Chinese technology and capital, in addition to the concept of mutually beneficial and win-benefit advocated by China. The U.S. has long been Venezuela's largest exporter of oil, and Chavez's government wants to get rid of its over-reliance on the US market and is also an important driver of its energy cooperation with China.　　China should seek a balance between safeguarding the overall situation of Sino-US relations and safeguarding the common development of Latin American countries. Strengthening energy access security The pattern of China's four major channels for energy supply abroad has been preliminarily formed. The north is dominated by Sino-Russian oil and gas pipelines and the western China-Kazakhstan Petroleum pipeline and the middle-earth naturalGas pipeline mainly in the south, mainly in China-Burma oil and gas pipelines, mainly in the east by sea Transportation channel. Safeguarding Energy channel Security is one of the important tasks of China's energy diplomacy strategy. To this end, China must enhance its ability to maintain access to the channel.　　It is very important to strengthen the relationship between the countries with the maritime channel because it is difficult to realize the safe passage of the direct troops. China should strengthen its relations with major countries along the maritime transport corridor, and should also strengthen its relations with the transit countries of onshore oil and gas pipelines, and seek more support from these countries in maintaining access and pipeline safety.　　In addition, multilateral cooperation on land-based pipelines, the establishment of multilateral coordination mechanisms covering all transit countries, the formation of benefits-sharing, shared shared interests, and enhanced capacity to withstand risks such as terrorist activities, organized crime and natural disasters, are also needed. International energy organizations active in International energy relations play an important role in the formulation of international energy rules and are a major factor affecting the international energy order. China is not only a big country of energy consumption, but also a big energy producer, which plays an important role in the international energy relations, and should be a member of many international energy organizations. China should actively participate in the activities of the International Energy Organization, especially the energy organizations of the United Nations.　　Whether it is in the interest of the State to continue to drift away from these international energy organizations is worth thinking deeply. Take the International Energy Agency (IEA) for example. The IEA has sent an invitation to China, but China has not yet considered joining the IEA, which is an organization of developed countries. In fact, the IEA, as an energy consumer organization and China, has many important common interests, such as maintaining reasonable international oil prices, strengthening oil reserves and preventing oil supply disruptions. may wish to consider acceding to the status of developing countries in the context of satisfying my certain conditions. It is hard for China to meet the IEA's standards in oil reserves, but that is precisely what China needs to continue to strengthen, and it may consider cooperating with the IEA. China's participation in the IEA will encounter many problems, but it is not a solution to the problem. Since both sides have common interests, cooperation should not be avoided.　　Cooperation with the IEA should not affect my relationship with the developing countries. To exert the important role of energy diplomacy in international energy cooperation, we should also actively develop public energy diplomacy. Enterprises, non-governmental organizations and research institutions are the main actors in public energy diplomacy. The international energy activities carried out by them can play a unique role in creating a good cooperative atmosphere and deepening international energy cooperation research. Therefore, public energy diplomacy should be a part of China's energy diplomacy needs to be particularly strengthened.