Yanghe Report No. Second: the most determined bearer of the Fortis has fled

Organization questioning Yanghe Core Paradox December 13, financial Weekly launched an exclusive research and Development Report, Yanghe Report: 110 billion market value of the four major risk exposures Yanghe himself are afraid of, in the institutional investors caused vibration. Now, the risks have been fulfilled. Yanghe shares (002304.　　SZ) is suffering the biggest selling pressure since its listing.　　December 17, Yanghe before a trading day 3.58 times times the huge turnover plunged 6.4 points, followed by the next trading day, the volume again magnified to 2.93 million shares, down 4 points.　　Prior to December 16, Yanghe's fourth largest shareholder in the comprehensive arts investment through a large number of transactions to 228 yuan price to sell 2 million shares, which is following its November 23 reduction of Yanghe after the second reduction.　　Financial weekly reporter learned through a variety of channels, the former Yang Yanghe circulation of the main holders of the Fund and the Department of the funds are sold in Yanghe, more people said, "Sinks Tim Fu has been thrown almost."　　Yanghe Transition 22nd Small Non-dumping volume plummeted this is yanghe since the listing of the most painful 22 days. After enjoying the thrill of 283.8 yuan, Yanghe began to wither.　　As of December 22, stocks fell by as much as 22.4% in just 22 trading days, from 127.7 billion to 99 billion, and 28.71 billion to evaporate. Although the overall performance of the wine plate at the same time poor, Guizhou Maotai (600519.　　SH) and Wuliangye (000858.SZ) also fell from the highest point of 12% to the lowest, but whether it is the depth of decline, or decline in the significant amplification of turnover, Yanghe has its own "go bad" logic. The investment of small non-art has undoubtedly played the role of the beast that washed away yanghe.　　Before the lifting of the ban, the investment in all arts and crafts held 44.2537 million shares in Yanghe, and Shanghai sea smoke tied with the fourth largest shareholder in Yanghe shares. As early as the May Investor Exchange, Yanghe stock executives clearly implied that the investment "if there is no better opportunity, will not sell"; in November 8, Yang shares 174 million shares of restricted shares of the ban on the day before, Wanguo analyst Child Training also issued a label entitled "The Non-share will continue to enjoy the high growth of Yanghe", said　　The possibility of the investment of comprehensive arts in reducing the risk of yanghe in the short term.　　However, the investment in the arts has responded to the "extravagant expectations" of his senior executives and analysts.　　On December 13, financial weekly published "Yanghe report: 110 billion market capitalisation tight under the four major exposures, Yanghe himself are afraid of" (hereinafter referred to as "Yanghe report 1th"), the article disclosed that as early as November 23, small non-synthetic arts investment has commissioned a private placement in the two-tier market to throw 1 million shares.　　And on December 16, the bulk of the transaction again, Huatai Securities Nantong Yao Port Road sales department to 228 yuan discount to throw 2 million shares, this business department is the investment in comprehensive arts in the November 23 sales department. Yang Cong Conen, chief executive of the company, said in an interview with other media reporters that "the investment in the arts is selling" and thatWhether the investment will be further reduced, did not communicate with Yanghe AG.　　2 million of the big throw in the two-level market volume 759,000 of the Day 2.63 times times, this will undoubtedly cause a big market shock.　　The subsequent two trading days, Yanghe stock volume plunged, December 17, down 6.4%, turnover up to 2.72 million shares, is its first day turnover of 3.58 times times; December 20, down 4%, volume innovation to 2.92 million shares. The brokerage is still singing many institutions have quietly fled for the collapse of Yanghe, financial weekly "Yanghe Report No. 1th" has been done in the article risk warning.　　There are problems in the supply of wine and the future of continuous marketing space in the case of variables, Yanghe outside the expansion of a little less than Italy, under the pressure of the size of the reduction, stock prices may fluctuate.　　And behold, a short few days later, expected to be fulfilled, in small non-art investment fled the driving, Yanghe was dragged into the night.　　and the seller's agency once again showed their bravery. On the day of the small non-art investment selling, Guotai analyst Hu Chunxia released research reports, giving Yang Yanghe overweight rating, and in Yanghe 20th, the day of the plunge, Xiang Fortune Securities analyst Zhao still maintain its previous judgment, that the next 12 months Yanghe can direct 330, and in the day of the plunge to make "　　Now the time has come to invest in Yanghe.　　Zhao believes that, in the short term, small non-reduction is not terrible, that Yanghe shares in 230 yuan 60-day EMA and 200-yuan EMA will be strong support. However, the performance of Yanghe in the level two market will surely surprise the bullish analysts.　　At the other side of the body, which the seller has spared no effort to sing, the institutions are retreating.　　Financial Weekly reporter from the Multi-channel survey, the former holding Yanghe most of the circulating shares of the fund "has been thrown almost", and as of the 3 quarter of the first large circulation of shareholders, two funds are also in the two-tier market sell-off. Especially worth mentioning is the remittance fund, this is in the value of investment, the style of long-term, centralized holdings of well-known funds, as early as the end of 2009, took the lead to 4 funds stationed in Yanghe shares, At that time, a total of 4.9762 million shares of Yang, since then, the highest level of shareholding has been reached in the 2010-year quarterly, while in the 2010-year report, Huiyuan has been retreating, with the largest share of the balance Growth Fund holding 3.3415 million shares in the first quarter, while the time has shrunk by 43.4%　　To 1.8915 million shares. And the financial weekly from a number of sources learned that the recent remittance fund in the large sell-off, and even some people admit that "has been thrown almost."　　In addition, after the understanding of the sale of the GF Fund, is also selling. "There is no way, they also think (the stock price) is too high," said one person close to the fund.　　"Chengye Shenya?" A number of analysts confirmed that Yanghe's high stock price as part of its corporate marketing strategy, and in the success of the first-share shares of the "success" on the road, the seller's institutional analysts singAnd the popularity of institutional investors is a must.　　The concerns of the seller's institutional analyst about Yanghe began in March this year. Information shows that, during the 3 April, about Yanghe's research report frequency, two months, Wanguo analyst Child training, Xiang Fortune Securities analyst Zhao June, Guotai analyst Hu Chunxia and other people have sent 33 research reports, on average every two days, and in April, Wanguo analyst Child Training a person on the hair has "　　4 studies suggesting that investors actively allocate "phrases". On the whole, analysts praise the incentive mechanism of Yanghe's equity, astounding the marketing model of Yanghe's deep management, and look forward to the future of Yanghe holding double ditch.　　In the year 2010, nearly all wine industry analysts have issued an overweight rating for Yanghe, and the future target price of Yanghe has been increased.　　In the two quarter, the agencies were quite buying it. From the two quarter to the first quarter of 3 months, the institutional shareholding increased by one times, from 10.35 million shares in the first quarter to two quarters of 21.63 million shares.　　The organization's overweight pushed up the two-tier market share price of Yanghe, Yanghe's share price starts from March 29 106 yuan, June the highest had rushed to 167 yuan, the rise up to 57.4%. "Before the lifting of the release of Yanghe only 45 million circulation stocks, chips scarce, rising strength, more than 100 million after the lifting of the non-negotiable, in the case of the size of the sale is not certain, yanghe a little bit of trouble, will lead to lower prices."　　"December 23, an investment analyst in the industry. Analysts also know what the investors said.　　However, in the sensitive period of the release of the non-Yanghe, the analysts still do not give up the pursuit of Yanghe, 330 yuan and 350 yuan high prices are in the non-one weeks before the release of the decision.　　It is clear that the small and the agencies are no longer in agreement with the seller's institutional analysts ' judgment. Analysts are so obsessed with singing that they can't change institutions and small-art investments.　　Under the impact of the investment sell-off of the comprehensive arts, the valuation system of Yanghe's share price is causing a new discussion in the industry.　　The important question in Yanghe's core paradox is, what kind of Yanghe will the future be?　　If it is true that some analysts in the industry are predicting that it will reach $330 in 12 months, the matching amount of net profit needed by Yanghe is staggering. Given 40 times times the price of Yang, 330 yuan in 2011, then its corresponding net profit should be as high as 3.712 billion, then will be the net profits and Wuliangye.　　And in the third quarter of 2010, Wuliangye net profit of 3.533 billion is still Yanghe 1.575 billion 2.24 times times.　　Maintain such a growth rate, I believe that soon Yanghe will formally squeeze into the first line of wine brewing market, become the third largest giant of Maotai and Wuliangye, many people think that this is unacceptable.　　But the difference is that some of the analysts who attended the Yanghe investors ' meeting believed that the day was coming because they believed in the allure of deep marketing in Yanghe. All the analysts who are advocating yanghe have repeatedly stressed that YangheIn-depth marketing of the advantages and subversion, an industry analyst in the interview with the Financial weekly reporter said, "The reason is vigorously pushed Yanghe, is the main idea that Yanghe is all liquor enterprises really know how to marketing companies."　　An analyst in the industry will be a confidant of Yanghe shares, said in the research report, "a Western textbook management theory in the liquor industry to truly materialize and innovative enterprises, Yanghe is my ideal enterprise."　　This statement is not unreasonable, but not all. "Yanghe is in fact in accordance with the model of rapid elimination of Yang Yanghe." But white wine is not a FMCG after all.　　"December 22, the industry, an analyst in Beijing, and that" Yanghe in the next two years to rely on sustained marketing, but the continuous marketing space is limited, then its future development will have to rely on acquisitions, but because of taxes and other factors, Yanghe's acquisition can be smooth is still unknown. An authoritative investment banker told the weekly financial report that the Yanghe phenomenon has indeed caused a lot of controversy in the industry. "His marketing strategy is really outmanoeuvred, the question is, how much is marketing worth?"　　"No one knows how to value the marketing capacity of Yanghe. One analyst pointed out that historically, Qin Qi, the three groups of three of oral liquid, giant group of brain platinum and other products are superior in depth marketing, however, they ultimately because of quality mismatch and short-lived.　　Do not rule out one day, Yanghe really impact the first group, scale even beyond Maotai and Wuliangye, but its marketing sustainability and marginal effectiveness people do not know. "Only quality is eternal." Similarly, many of the institutional investors interviewed are unwilling to talk more about the quality of Yanghe wine.　　Interestingly, the financial weekly in the local small survey found that many of the investors have invested in the sunshine shares of the organization, did not really taste the wine of Yanghe.　　It is noteworthy that people familiar with the situation, in different occasions, Yanghe executives themselves also confessed, and the first-line brand than, Yanghe Blue Classic quality "still have gaps."　　And the financial weekly also found that Yang Yanghe Blue classic "Sea Blue" has been in the Northwest region has been a defective news, because did not go to the field investigation, Financial weekly reporter is difficult to determine the defect involved in the product scale and specific reasons, can not make the overall judgment on the impact.　　However, this message is being brought to the attention of the analytical community. In Yanghe marketing by leaps and bounds at the same time, its various grades liquor quality can keep up with suspicion, is the core paradox of Yanghe.