Chinese and foreign institutions talk about economic issues China's economy is expected to rebound first

"The global economic recovery is premature", "the future is necessarily high inflation low growth" ... These viewpoints are from the 16th "2009 Lujiazui Forum" Branch Chang-Xu Xiaonian, professor of economics and finance at China-Europe International Business School, Chairman of the Fred, Rose Stone consultant, Andy Xie, chief economist of China International Finance Corporation,　　Wang Qing, chief economist at Morgan Stanley Greater China, debated the hot topic of the economy. Hu that China could be the first economic recovery in the global economy, but there may be a lot of worries.　　The next three or five years, long-term constraints on China's development bottlenecks, stress, challenges will become more and more serious. He argues that China needs to stimulate policy immediate worries and deepen reform. China's debt has widened to 3%, which may eventually be a smaller downturn, but the process of adjustment and recovery will be longer. "In the future, economic growth cannot be as fast as it has been in the past decade, so there will be a cyclical decline that appears to be in effect, with a structural inflection behind it."　　He suggested that, first, China would need to cut taxes to solve the problem with debt issuance, and second, to open up more investment space for the private economy, to break the monopoly and rationalize the price of resources. ' The Chinese economy has had three cycles of decline in the past 30 years, at least three years at a time, so 2009 is definitely not the bottom, ' said Ha.　　Andy Xie also thinks the downgrade will not be over in a year, and that next year, not just China, the world could see a second recession. Xu Xiaonian that the current China is not a moderately loose monetary policy, but very loose monetary policy. Ha also believes that the current rapid monetary growth and 3.6% of nominal GDP growth, the difference is too big, make some fine-tuning is necessary.　　Short-term policy often leads to short-term investment behavior, which is the reason for the stock market to rise. Hu said China's stock market had risen sharply at the beginning of the year, becoming the world's best performing stock market, stemming from China's macroeconomic stability, fiscal stimulus and overly loose monetary policy.　　But after a big rally, the outlook for the future is certainly not as rosy as it has been in the past four months, because the earnings growth of listed companies should be said to be less than last year. Wang Qing believes that the second half of corporate earnings is likely to be better than the first half. Because the stimulus of economic policy in the second half will make the real economy better. If the Chinese economy recovers first in the major economies, the recovery itself will not lift commodity prices, and Chinese companies face lower cost pressures. (Athena Chu)