East China Pharmaceuticals: Operational Recovery Valuation upgrade
Source: Internet
Author: User
KeywordsAt present east China valuation
Investment points after the trough of the first quarter, the company gradually returned to normal business, the year is still expected to rebound further. Industry continued to maintain a relatively rapid growth, the main varieties have good performance. Real estate or will have a positive impact on the company, the negative impact of Xi ' an Bohua gradually reduce the estimated company 2009-2011 earnings per share of 0.526, 0.618 and 0.750 yuan respectively. At present, the underestimated value has fully reflected the negative impact of the governance structure, maintaining the "buy" investment rating. Commercial gradual resumption of normal East China Medicine 2009-year Quarterly show, the business sector income growth is weak, the parent company sales revenue year-on-year growth of only 0.5%, far lower than the previous few years the level of commercial sector development. But the commercial sector's gross margin rose to 6.16% year-on-year. Gross profit margin, mainly due to the company in the adjustment of the variety of pharmaceutical business structure, small profit space to clear out the scope of business, and strive to increase the high Maori varieties. The first quarter of domestic pharmaceutical business overall operating situation is not ideal, Zhejiang Province, the pharmaceutical business is depressed, some commercial enterprises have negative growth. The main reason is that the first quarter of the Government frequently issued the relevant policy guidance, many hospitals are difficult to grasp the future direction of development and evolution of the industry, the initiative will be the hospital's drug inventory will be low to the drug purchase and sale of the implementation of a very cautious attitude. Business has returned to normal levels in 4 May this year. The impact of hospital inventory on business is short-term, and the first quarter has been basically digested. As terminal medical consumption continues to grow at a high rate, and in particular the Government's announcement of a 850 billion-yuan health care plan, pharmaceutical business will obviously benefit from the expansion of demand. The company has fully recognized the future development trend of pharmaceutical business logistics, is speeding up the construction of Logistics Base, distribution network layout. Throughout the year, we believe that the company's business business is still expected to rebound further, the business sector is expected to achieve 15-20% revenue growth in 2009, about 20% of the profit growth. Industry maintained a relatively rapid growth in the first quarter of the company's industry maintained a good growth posture, China and the United States income growth close to 20%. Saikopin sales rose to 35-40% in the first quarter of 2009. The main reason for the slowdown is that the base is getting bigger, and sales are still growing in absolute terms. At present, the market share of Saikopin is still very low, accounting for less than 15%, although the competition in the stock market is more difficult, but in the new patient market has a better acceptance, the future market share there is a lot of room for improvement. Cabopin sales rose about 30% in the first quarter. China is one of the countries with the fastest growing prevalence of diabetes in the world. Cabopin's main competitor is Bayer's sugar-Apple, which currently has a market share of about 24% and Cabopin market share of about 73%. At present, Cabopin can win about 40% of the new market often Cabopin price advantage, while Bayer's sales network is difficult to penetrate the grassroots hospital, so Cabopin in the low-end market has a strong competitiveness. At the same time, the company is also continuing to compete for high-end market, at level three hospitalMore and more high. In addition, the company is also increasing the development of new dosage forms, plans to launch Cabopin chewing tablets, which will further promote Cabopin growth. The sales of the capsules in the first quarter grew close to 25% per cent year-on-year, and the product's lifecycle and future space were considerable. Hundred-Capsule is a Chinese-made silk spore production strains for the artificial cultivation of cordyceps products, the application of a wide range of fields. At present, the capsule mainly in the field of immune suppression marketing, and began to gradually in the endocrine department to promote, has achieved good market results. The company plans to launch a 0.5g dosage form to allow patients to take medicine more conveniently. At present, the hundred capsules have encountered the problem of capacity bottlenecks, the company plans to make planning adjustments in the plant to gradually expand capacity. He has already started the tender work and has formed a certain amount of sales. We anticipate that tacrolimus will contribute about 25 million of sales revenue in 2009. Neu Sespin sales grew less than 5% in the first quarter, mainly because Cyclosporine A is already in its mature stage and will remain stable in the future. Other negative effects weakened in 2008 as sales were not confirmed and the project suffered loss of value, resulting in Yang Qi real estate loss of 24.73 million yuan. Real Estate 2008 actually made 180 million yuan pre-sale housing, but due to the delivery cycle of the reason did not confirm income. At present, "Sanshui life" project still has about 40,000 square meters of house no sales, according to the current 6000 yuan/square meters of market price calculation, is expected to form sales of 240 million yuan. As the main cost of the project has been confirmed in the previous two years, the next confirmed sales revenue will be at a higher margin. The operation of Xi ' an Bohua and Kyushu pharmacy has improved, but there are still some uncertainties. We expect that the 2009 XI ' an Bohua will have a negative impact on the net profit of about 6 million of listed companies. In addition, the company through the acquisition of East China Herbal pieces Company, began the strategic layout of Chinese herbal pieces. Earnings forecasts and investment proposals are expected to yield 0.526, 0.618 and 0.75 yuan per share in 2009-2011 respectively. Because the real estate business income confirmation exists The big uncertainty, the above profit forecast does not consider the real estate contribution. We believe that the company's fine texture, good operating conditions, the current level of valuation in the industry is low, has fully reflected the negative impact of major shareholders, the future existence of space for valuation promotion, maintain the "buy" investment rating. (National Gold Securities Research Institute)
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