Economic growth will continue to increase in the second half

The first half of the year's GDP grew 7.1% and the economic rebound intensified. In the three big demand of GDP growth, the contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth is 53.4%, and the growth of GDP is 3.8%. How will the economic trend of the second half be interpreted? Will macro policies be fine-tuned?　　This newspaper invited experts to comment on their views, today launched a "I see Macroeconomic trends" series. -Zhang Liqun's GDP growth rate increased to 7.9% in the two quarter and 7.1% in the first half of the year, following a GDP growth rate of less than 7% in the four quarter and the first quarter of this year.　　The author thinks that the economic bottoming out is basically established, and the factors supporting the economic recovery are also more clear, according to the judgment, the second half of the economic growth rate will continue to increase, the annual growth will reach or more than 8%. Compared with the 2003 ~2007 economic growth, a series of support conditions will change after the economy returns to high growth, and the economic performance will change accordingly.　　Therefore, we should strengthen the analysis and preparation of countermeasures to deal with the characteristics and problems of the new higher level growth of economy. The relative shortage of demand will continue for a long time in the 2003, the economic growth of ~2008 in China has formed a huge supply capacity, especially in the basic industry, infrastructure and heavy chemical raw materials. With the drastic reduction of external demand, as well as the reduction of domestic demand under the control of macroeconomic policy, the problem of demand shortage is very prominent, the enterprise orders generally reduce, many enterprises cut production and even discontinued. With the major adjustment of macro-economic policy, domestic investment and consumer demand soon resumed higher growth, the first half of the total investment in fixed assets grew 33.5% year-on-year, the growth rate was faster than the year 7.2%;　　Accelerated 3.7%. The analysis shows that the total demand of our country's economy is about 30%, the external demand increases by 1%, and the total demand increases by 0.3%. Exports fell 21.8% per cent in the first half of the year, compared with an increase of 21.9% over a year earlier, which led to a 13.1% decline in aggregate demand. Domestic demand accounted for about 70% of total demand, excluding the price factor to calculate the rate of investment and consumption increase from the previous year, about 14%, led to a rise in aggregate demand growth of more than 9 percentage points. External demand, domestic demand, the overall demand growth in the first half of this year is still lower than the same period of 3 more than a year ago.　　This analysis shows that, in the case of a significant reduction in external demand, domestic investment consumption, despite a faster speed, but the growth rate is still lower. Due to the external economic environment is still very grim, external needs to decline in the trend of the year is difficult to reverse, so despite the rapid increase in domestic demand, but compared with the supply capacity, the relative shortage of total demand will continue for a long time. This pattern of total relationship will form the economic operation characteristic of higher growth and lower price rise, which is advantageous to promote the enterprise technological transformation through the market competition mechanism,Promote structural adjustment and industrial upgrading.　　The analysis could also dispel fears of a faster rise in prices in the future. The growth rate of domestic demand will accelerate continuously in the first half of this year, in which government investment projects play a major role.　　At the same time, it should be seen that the independent investment from enterprises, market-driven investment also began to recover relatively quickly. First of all, live, row-oriented consumption structure upgrade activities faster recovery, car, housing sales rapidly expanded. January-June, the quota above wholesale retail sales, car consumption growth of 18.1% year-on-year, passenger vehicle sales growth of more than 20%; The National commercial housing sales area of 341.09 million square meters, the year-on-year growth of 31.7%, of which, the sales area of commercial residential growth of 33.4%. With the real estate market rebound, real estate investment growth gradually accelerated, the national urban Real estate Development Investment 1-February year-on-year growth of 1%, 1-March year-on-year growth of 4.1%, 1-April year-on-year growth of 4.9%, 1-May year-on-year growth of 6.8%, 1-June year-on-year growth of 9.9%.　　The growth of manufacturing investment began to go out of the trough of 2008 years, and the investment rate of textile, machinery, building materials, mining industry and so on has obviously accelerated. Never seen, consumption structure upgrade activities are sustainable, car, house purchase activities will continue to be active, consumption-driven market investment growth will continue to increase, while the investment multiplier effect will continue to increase.　　It is expected that the level of economic growth will gradually rise to a higher level under the impetus of domestic demand. Asset prices may rise faster than the first half, housing prices, share prices have continued to rise. By the impact of price increases, the demand for home purchase expanded rapidly, following rigid demand, improve the demand for investment to accelerate the influx of real estate market demand. On the other hand, housing supply is increasingly tense. The first half of the commercial housing sales area reached 340 million square meters, far more than 200 million square meters of stock room quantity. After the first quarter of 2008, the number of new real estate starts to decrease obviously, the property market is facing more and more obvious supply insufficiency problem.　　This may lead to the reluctant behavior of the cover plate and the acceleration of house price rise. At present, real estate development and construction speed is obviously accelerated, but considering the construction cycle factors, short time difficult to change the development of the real estate demand relationship. The increase in credit funds and the increasing macroeconomic positive factors may support a sustained and rapid rise in share prices. The rise of asset prices will have a positive effect on the real economy, but it will also increase the instability of economic operation and raise inflation expectations. (The author is under Secretary-General of the Academic Committee of the Development Research Center of the State Council)