Economist on inflation: expansion and contraction under the collision of the mind

The Masters are here to express their views, what do you think? Statistics such as CPI do not help us make judgments, so what about economists who have always liked to predict?　　Listen to what they're betting on at which end of the coin? Krugman's 2008 Nobel laureate in economics is the current real risk of deflation, rather than inflation.　　The panic is partly attributable to political factors rather than economic factors. First, there is no inflationary pressure in the current economy.　　The consumer price index is now lower than a year ago, and wage growth has stalled due to high unemployment. Second, the Fed did take unprecedented steps recently. More specifically, the Federal Reserve buys a lot of debt from the US government and the private sector and buys the debt by providing extra reserves to banks. In normal circumstances, this would raise inflation: banks will increase lending after increasing reserves, boosting demand and, in turn, pushing up prices. But now is not the usual time. Banks did not use the extra reserves to lend, and in effect the banks sent the money back to the Fed.　　As a result, the Fed has no printing money at all. Third, some economists argue that moderate inflation is a deliberate policy that can encourage lending and reduce the debt burden.　　In the 1990 's, Japan's policymakers did not wait for inflation, and American policymakers are not waiting for inflation. Inflation, the former Fed chairman, is the biggest threat to the recovery, with global equities rising from the beginning of March this year to mid-June, the main cause of an unexpected upturn in the economic environment, but inflation will be the biggest challenge in the future.　　The short-term deflationary threat and longer-term inflationary threat must be addressed and committed. Overcapacity has temporarily curbed global prices.　　If the central bank fails to control its bloated balance sheet in time, inflation will return by 2012, and if the market expects the money supply to remain high for a long time, the inflation will come a bit earlier. Inflation is a matter of special concern for the next 10 years, given that the US government will issue large amounts of debt in global financial markets.　　The US faces a choice: to cut the budget deficit and the monetary base immediately if the current risk of deflation disappears, or to welcome a possible surge in inflation. Algae Gu Jun-jie Japan's famous scholar the excess demand in emerging countries creates inflation. The system of high growth and insufficient supply in emerging countries is only returned to deflation by the shock of the financial crisis, so it is easy to return to inflation. Deflation existed only in the two months of last November and December, after which inflation had been renewed.　　This is already a fait accompli. Even if Japan and the United States have no room to cut interest rates any more, there will still be countries that will continue to cut interest rates, and the average policy rate in 17 major countries is still falling until May.　　The average world money supply in the 17 countries also surged. It is the excess demand in emerging countries that creates inflation, not that speculative money pushes up the price of raw materials. If the reason for the financial causes of inflation is that the recoveryLive, it is possible to underestimate the long-term needs of emerging countries.　　Of course, when the average world is in inflation, it is not that there is no country or industry that is deflationary. Mundell 1999 Nobel laureate in economics China needs more expansionary monetary policy when the rest of the world faces huge economic retrograde pressures, I do not think that the decline in the data (CPI and PPI) is an unexpected occurrence. The initial situation looks like, much of China's economic data should rise sharply, but I don't think that many will expect this data recovery to continue, the Chinese economy from the strong growth of the past to the current negative decline, China can not escape the global economic downturn in the big environment, but of course,　　I say this does not mean that the Chinese economy has come to a negative, production decline, I say is in the general sense of China's economic growth rate slowdown, and the previous strong growth in stark contrast. China should adopt a more expansionary monetary policy, one of the ways to prevent deflation is to stop buying too much of US Treasuries and China should not invest in US Treasuries, because the Chinese need to keep their money at home, they need money to spend, they need to maintain their economies, let their money stay in China, and let the Chinese spend more. The Chinese economy would be better off by spending more, offsetting the effects of deflation and pulling prices back to a rate of 2% or 3% a year. "The low growth of the global economy by the chief economist of Ha the era of high inflation" will come to a country's demographic structure and debt level is the country's economic growth, the most important two drivers, with a large proportion of the labor capacity of the country, economic growth is relatively fast, debt high country economy growth slow. " The United States will appear in the 2010 demographic inflection point, gradually into the aging stage, the economic growth rate is bound to slow down. In response to the crisis, the United States issued a large number of debt, national debt as a share of GDP from 40% to 70%, the existence of inflation, the balance of high debt rate in the next two generations of the intrinsic impulse to distribute, the global economy "low growth, high inflation" era will come.　　China's demographic structure will usher in a turning point in 2015, and the speed of economic growth is inevitably a structural inflection point. Director of fan National Economic Research Institute in the past two years, there is no inflation in China. Even though the world has a lot of money, central banks are concerned and wary of inflation. In the United States, for example, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke mentioned twice in congressional testimony that a certain time would change the direction of monetary policy, and that the Fed would return when market currency liquidity began to recover. Since it can put money, it can naturally receive money. China's central bank is also concerned about inflation and its ability to deal with the currency's unwinding.　　And believe that there will be a currency in the future process of withdrawal. China will not have inflation in the past two years and "it is premature to talk about inflation". The economy really hold steady, "macroscopical expansionary policy wants to carry out microbicides". From the entityThe relationship between the economy and the monetary economy is now far from the point of dealing with the dangers of inflation.　　China now has more than 1 deflation, the price of raw materials has fallen by 5% to 6%, the whole investment is not active enough, still need to have a certain wait-and-see.　　Lang-Ping famous economist next year stagflation possibility is very big this round a A-share rise is the manufacturing capital and credit funds to promote. The current inflationary pressure is not the United States, it is precisely the developing countries, including China, "the real worry is not the decline in export data, but the plunge in import data", China's manufacturing industry is imported raw materials, imports of machinery and equipment after the rough, the plunge in import data just means that domestic entrepreneurs in the economic deterioration of the environment　　"Don't want to do it".　　There is a high likelihood of stagflation in China next year.　　Nearly 7 trillion trillion yuan in the first half of bank credit flowed into infrastructure and state-owned enterprises, and the seemingly resurgent Chinese economy actually masked a manufacturing crisis. China's economic "troika"-consumption, government investment, exports, has stopped in the financial crisis, the Chinese economy will be at the end of next year, the economic growth point of the depletion of the crisis, "the Chinese economy urgently needs the four-horse wagon to pull." "This fourth carriage is by no means from the reinforced cement-led manufacturing industry," we see that domestic demand is not pulling up, in fact, domestic demand is not a drag, but because of the excessive output of commodities, depressed consumption as a share of GDP. "Mao famous economists are still pushing the housing market in deflationary inflation expectations, which is not an investment that is speculative and dangerous."　　Now in most big cities, there are too many speculative houses, too many vacant rooms, whether they are sold or not sold or not, empty is a bubble, now I see real estate is obviously bubble.　　It is still deflation, and it is hard to estimate whether the next month will be able to recover, deflation has the power of deflation, inflation has the power of inflation, which force is big, difficult to estimate. I do not acknowledge the importation of inflation, the rise in oil prices will not cause inflation.　　The price of oil was most severe in 2007, Japanese oil is all dependent on imports, but at that time, Japanese prices were negative, oil rose so much, its price has been lost, because the total amount of money in control, so I think the so-called import inflation, that is, the rise in domestic prices, is not tenable.　　Chunsheng Yangtze River Business School finance professor a certain degree of inflation is inevitable in the current situation, there is no inflation, in a sense, people worry about deflation.　　It is true that China and other countries are likely to accumulate inflation, but this is the expectation of the central banks, which is a certain level of inflation is inevitable, but because the government is expected to adjust, so hyperinflation is unlikely. In order to protect the economic recovery, there is no sign of austerity, once the economy recovers, we can not immediately from loose to austerity, after all, recovery or bud, not enough to withstand, from this point of view, the government wants to promote economic recovery, but also want toIt is very difficult to control inflation at 3% or 4%. The public's ability to withstand inflation varies with the changing economic environment, and the expected inflation and unintended inflationary effects are different. If inflation were to be controlled in two digits, the public would still be able to afford it,