First half of real estate investment CICC: Continue to buy property stocks

The National Bureau of Statistics announced the first half of the 2009 years of the country's real estate market operation, CICC believes that, overall, the first half of real estate investment has shown a clear trend of warming, in the macroeconomic policy "fine-tuning" style, continue to optimistic about the real estate industry in the end of the reversal, to maintain the　　, but limited to the current high plate valuation, it is recommended that investors bargain to attract property stocks. Real estate investment in the first half of the forecast CICC believes that real estate investment growth exceeded expectations, the industry reversal trend more obvious. The first half of the total investment amounted to 1.45 trillion yuan, the year-on-year growth rate of 9.9%, compared to January-May to increase 3.1%, June single month to complete investment 434 billion yuan, the year-on-year increase of 18%. In combination with the May or June king of the situation, developers in the past few months to inventory, improve the cash flow, has begun to enter the new cycle of buying land.　　Although the June monthly investment is affected by a semi-annual statistical summary, the current situation analysis, the annual investment growth rate is likely to exceed the expectations of CICC's original 5%~10%. Sales figures were significantly higher than CICC expected, with a monthly price rise of June per month. The first half of the cumulative commercial housing sales area of 341.09 million square meters, an increase of 31.7% per cent, the increase in May continued to increase 6.2%, one-month sales of 94.65 million square meters, compared with 2007 and 2008, respectively, increased 40% and 50%. From the point of view of the type of business, the cumulative sales area of housing growth of 33.4%, office building cumulative sales area rose 7.6%, commercial premises, the cumulative sales area increased by 16.4%, showing obvious structural differentiation; sales,　　Commercial housing sales and commercial housing sales rose 53% and 57.1% respectively Year-on-year, the sales price continues to show an upward trend, compared with the May cumulative average price has been raised. The new construction area fell 10.4% year-on-year, down from January-May to 5.8%, and real estate sources of financing, real estate development Enterprises in January-June year-on-year growth of 23.6%, compared to January-May 7.5%, of which the domestic loan growth of 32.6% per cent, the increase is more 1~ May increased 16.8%, individual mortgage loans rose 63.1% year-on-year, the increase of 23.3% compared with January-May.　　At the end of May, the real estate industry capital requirements sharply reduced, as well as the June loose credit to effectively reduce the financial pressure of developers to promote the demand for housing, thereby stimulating developers to increase investment and new start. Profits in the future will improve land acquisition area year-on-year decline of 26.5%, a decline of 2.1% from May. Land development fell 15.2% per cent year-on-year, down from 1.9% per cent last month. CICC believes that with the gradual easing of capital, developers will be more active in the acquisition of land, land acquisition indicators will be improved in the second half. In addition, under construction area of 2.397 billion square meters, an increase of 12.7%, increase+ 1%; The completed area grew 22.3% year-on-year, down 0.3% from January-May, basically in line with CICC's expectations. June the country's 70 large and medium cities housing sales price rose 0.2% year-on-year, and May is down 0.6%, the chain Rose 0.8%, the increase is 0.2% from May. Guangzhou and Shenzhen in the new residential sales price and second-hand housing sales price of the national monthly Quarter-on-quarter rise first. The continuing rise in the price of housing has validated the industry's judgment before CICC that, in the case of continued high turnover, the housing price will show structural rise in areas with limited supply, especially in first-tier cities.　Rising house prices and a lag in the market for new supplies will allow developers to focus more on profit indicators after the first half of the inventory, and earnings in the next two years are expected to improve. Cicc