Hong Kong's first-quarter economic data the worst in a decade the stock market may not turn bad

The Hong Kong Ming Pao reported that Hong Kong's economic growth of 7.8% in the first quarter was the worst since the 3rd quarter of 1998, and that the figures were frightening, with exports falling by 22.7%, which had never been seen in the last 55 years, even more frightening. However, investment is not appropriate to see the mirror, to look forward, the U.S. economy fell 6.1% in the first quarter, when the market went down 4.7% to see the big numbers think the stock market would plunge, but on the contrary, stocks rose at the time, as investors saw a 2.2% rise in personal consumption in the first quarter and a big drop in inventories, which would increase the incentive to replenish inventories,　　Improved the economy in the 2nd quarter. The first quarter of our economy while the GDP performance was expected to be worse in the year, it was better to look at some of the finer items than in the 4th quarter, for example, when fixed capital formation in Hong Kong fell by 12.6% in the first quarter, compared with 17.8% in the 4th quarter, where expenditure on machinery, equipment and computer software decreased by 6.6%, Eased by 21.1% in the 4th quarter.　　Private consumption expenditure also slowed down on a quarterly basis. The decline in private consumption and investment has slowed down the lack of leading indicators of Hong Kong's economy, unlike in the United States, where the stock and property markets will be better targets in the elephant process.　　Stocks in Europe and the United States have fallen to a low level, and exports should have improved markedly over the next one or two quarters, as has the share price performance of Hong Kong-listed industrial stocks such as quake-Hung (0057), nine Dragons paper (2689) and trade dividend (0494).　　International commodity prices have risen in recent months also indicates that world trade should be improved, some industrial originals have rebounded, and Credit Suisse has upgraded its price forecast for LCD TV and computer screen, which is expected to rise by 9% this season and another 6% in the next quarter.　　In this century-old economic recession, Hong Kong's private consumption expenditure and unemployment rate are not as bad as the Asian financial turmoil, which should be related to the economic convergence between China and Hong Kong after 03 years, and the inflow of mainland capital into consumption and investment has offset some of the economic downturn in the US and Europe. The rise of industry and trade stocks bodes well for export improvement Another important difference is the Asian financial turmoil, with the sharp rise in interest rates and the depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar, which has accelerated the price of property and the stock market, the wealth has shrunk, and the number of negative assets is 100,000, which affects consumption and confidence, it is now seen as a strong Hong Kong dollar 1-month interbank interest was only 0.1, when the financial turmoil peaked, the Hong Kong dollar was dozens of, and ample capital was favourable to stabilizing the economy and asset markets.　　The Central Plains City property price index rose to a new high of October 19 last week, with the M3 of the money supply in Hong Kong recovering 3.3% in March and expected to rise further in April. Interest rates of nearly 0 floor prices rebounded from the economic data in the first quarter of 98, but I believe the bottom is that this week, if blue-chip property stocks were dumped as a result of first-quarter data, they might as well suck. Last week, capital flows to China's small real estate stocks, Friday Hong Kong Societe Generale (0480) rose 16%, Ka Wah International (0173) 15%, and so on, but blue-chip growth is limited, capital or return to the blue-chip city often overall, last week also bought small don't buy big, the Hang Seng index fell 3.45%, the country was down 4.42%, while the HSI Composite, which covers 201 shares, fell 2.66%, the smallest decline, reflecting the cash flow to the fine-priced stocks in Friday, which had 171 shares rising, 22 falling and 8 unchanged.　　, the majority of the shares that fell to the larger market value, including the index component stocks. Index money to favor fine price stocks to buy the fine price stocks can be the end of the city, reflects the chicken dog shares are ascending stage, however, can also be the capital rotation between the index shares and the fine price of the speculation between the stock, so, can not determine the market has been completed, this column is still maintained by the index support at 16,000 points, the state refers to support at 9,400 points,　　Two were not lost last week. Friday stocks were soft, the Dow fell 62.7 points, at 8,269, the market is still waiting for a new direction, the US dollar index has risen to the top of the descending channel (about 83), and if the breakthrough is to be carefully made, it is still expected that the dollar index will continue to operate in the downward channel, and if so, the stock market can rebound.