Inhibition of change to curb house price correction increased likelihood

Surveys show that most consumers still think the outlook is bullish. The recent rise in housing prices to make the market generally feel the risk of regulation of the wind tightening Wen Jiabao, the State Council December 14 presided over the State Council executive meeting to study and improve the real estate market healthy development policy measures, which clearly put forward, "to strengthen market supervision, stabilize market expectations, curb the trend of excessive prices in some "Industry experts generally believe that, compared with the past, the meeting clearly put forward is" containment ", the strength is significantly more than" inhibition ", more ruthless in" stability. "　　It can be predicted that next year, two sets of loans and other policies will tighten, so that the possibility of a fall in house prices increased.　　Three times a week the center of Real Estate Policy the government in a short period of one week, three consecutive mention of real estate topics: At the closing economic Work Conference of December 7, real estate was no longer described as a pillar industry for the first time in years, and the economic conference only mentioned the need to increase the supply of ordinary commodity housing, support residents ' own living and improve the demand for property.　　December 9, the State Council executive meeting announced the "personal housing transfer business tax exemption period from 2 years to 5 years" provisions.　　December 14, Premier Wen Jiabao presided over the State Council executive meeting to study and improve the healthy development of the real estate market policy measures, the clear demand "to curb the rapid rise in the price of some cities in the momentum". Four regulatory policies likely to introduce a recent upsurge in house prices have made the market feel the risk. In addition to increasing the supply of ordinary commercial housing, the lack of adjustment of the land supply way, some real estate experts think that the property market specific regulation and control policy may be introduced, which mainly includes two sets of loans next year is expected to further tighten. In addition, there are three possible: first, for large-type, high-grade property tax will be accelerated next year, most likely in some cities pilot; second, the purchase of foreign capital may be tightened again, the third is the resale of the House of personal income tax, may be strictly levied.　　Once there is a massive sell-off in second-hand buildings, the property market will have to "make a hard landing". Guangzhou the head of the Land and Housing Bureau said recently that curbing the need to improve sex, especially investment and speculative demand, depends on national financial and tax economic instruments rather than on increasing the absolute value of land supply.　　Because of the "three old transformation" and other factors, Guangzhou is expected to release 80 square kilometers of land. Industry insiders speculate that a huge amount of land supply will effectively ease the pressure of rising property prices. Although many villagers in villages in the village have said that they will not be listed as compensation for relocation, but in fact, with the pace of urban reconstruction, even if only 10% of the housing listing, will be a significant impact on the urban residential market. In accordance with the roughly calculations, in need of 138 villages in the village, the old estimate of each village housing area of about 750,000 square meters, even if only 10% of the rehousing room is willing to market, its total will exceed 10 million square meters. And this does not include a huge amount of commercial housing that has been released because of urban transformationSupply。 Reporter Wang Market reaction bad attacks to real estate stocks fell control limited industry still optimistic in just announced business tax exemption years will change from 2 to 5 years later, a few days ago, the bad news of real estate stocks hit again, the state Council to curb some of the city prices too fast rising momentum, real estate stocks also fell. On the second day of the policy (that is, this week) Vanke, Poly, investment and other real estate leading stocks are "green" one, on the whole, the real estate sector in Tuesday, the overall weak, even decreased by 2.76%, led by the big city. Statistics show that the real estate plate 106 stocks only 8, leading stock also a full volume callback, but fortunately none of the shares fell.　　By Wednesday, however, the decline in property stocks had slowed.　　Market analysts generally believe that short-term real estate stocks will still be subject to a certain degree of repression, but because of the limited policy adjustment, so will not erase the real estate industry valuation and manipulation value, the future can still focus on the two or three-line real estate stocks. Rich brilliant latest monitoring data show that the majority of buyers in the future bullish trend with the demand for more and more housing prices steadily rebound, Guangzhou property market potential buyers of the composition and mentality is changing. The latest monitoring data of the market Research Department of the Glorious Group of the wealthy have shown that the current Guangzhou property market swap customers become the mainstream, the proportion of investment in real estate increased.　　and potential buyers of future speculation price expectations of the increase in the majority, still bullish, the price threshold has become the main factor in the transaction. According to monitoring, 2009 years of the Four Seasons in Guangzhou, more than 70% of potential home buyers for house-rooms, three or more than three home buyers also more than 30%; compared with the fourth quarter of 2008, house-house demand replaced the first home purchase as the current market demand for the east flow. The city center area such as Tianhe, Haizhu, Yuexiu and Liwan as the preferred potential buyers still reach 56%.　　This also shows that next year, the city centre is in short supply.　　According to the brilliant Group market Research department supply guess, compared with 2009, the 2010 new supply has further expansion to the periphery trend, Tianhe, Haizhu supply will be significantly reduced, the entire center of the four areas of the city's supply proportion is only slightly more than 30%. Overall, the determination and acceptance of property prices has become a major impediment to transactions, 87% of potential buyers said the current property prices are too expensive or too expensive. Although property prices have rebounded substantially, many potential homebuyers have changed from a preliminary to a pre-rise in the determination of property price movements 30% of potential buyers believe that the property price will be stable in the rise, 22% of the potential home buyers think property prices will drop slightly, 14% of the potential buyers think the future property prices will not be much change. The overall bullish share still prevails. Reporter Tao