Misreading and misleading of statistics

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Said a few days ago, I increasingly think SEO is an art, not, or not only, technology. One reason is that many times I find statistics increasingly unexplained. Clearly statistics show that keyword density should be added (just for example), but you do it, not necessarily effective, and may backfire.

A simple look at a statistic can often be misread, leading to false conclusions. To accurately see the essence and truth from the statistics, we have to consider many factors other than statistics. About SEO example, next time again. Today, the first two days of Google's share price crash.

Around February 28, comscore released statistics, pointing out that the number of ad clicks in the Google2008 year in January was 7% lower than in December 07, down 0.3% from the same period in 07. The report comes as Google's share price fell, falling 7% per cent and closing at a 4.6% decline.

On the face of it, a drop in the number of clicks on the ads either means a decline in user confidence in Google, a reduction in clicks, or a decline in Google's advertising relevance or quality, combined with an economic crisis that may lead to a decline in overall purchasing power.

But the fact that this is not the case does not draw an inevitable conclusion from this figure.

No figures show that the economy is bad, causing users to click the number of ads dropped, other search engine advertising clicks did not occur a sharp decline. Google's position and trust in the user's heart, there is no sign of decline. On the contrary, Google's market share and search times are on the rise, but the number of ad clicks is down.

According to statistics, the number of clicks on Google Ads is not only January. 2007-year hits have been falling, with Google revenue up 68% in 2007. The total number of ad clicks dropped and revenue rose, only because the price per click Rose.

As AdWords and AdSense know, Google has been vigorously improving the quality of advertising. Last November just narrowed the range of AdSense ads effective clicks, reduce unintentional clicks, reduce the ad click rate.

Advertisers ' rankings are not only determined by the bids, but also by the number of clicks and arrival pages (landing page) quality, conversion rates and other factors, which unify to an advertising quality score (Quality score). If advertisers have too low a quality score, their keyword ads may be suspended and advertisers must raise their bids to reopen them.

So on the whole, it is possible that the price of the ad click has been rising, the relevance and quality of advertising itself is also improving.

So does advertising relevance and quality increase not mean that ad clicks should be more? There is a paradox here, and there is no empirical evidence that the increased relevance of advertising does not mean that the number of clicks must increase.

Because of the increased relevance and quality, users can use fewer clicks to find the information he wants. If the correlation is not high, the user clicks an ad, does not find what he wants, may search again or press the return key, and click another ad.

Another possible reason for the drop in the number of ad clicks is that Google shows fewer ads. Statistics show that in all keyword searches, the percentage of at least one advertisement dropped from 52% to 48%. In other words, the user sees the opportunity of the advertisement to reduce, the click Nature also reduces.

The above two clicks of the factor, does not necessarily cause the next Google advertising revenue will be reduced.

Of course, how to interpret statistics, there is no 100% of the correct answer, can always say the words. I remember Greenspan saying that he had tried for decades to predict the direction of the economy, but he finally found that his predictive power had not improved.