Prices are unlikely to rise sharply next year

Since August food prices began overall higher than last year, but most of the experts surveyed that Royu Fansu Wanming in the next period of time, China's significant changes in price levels are mainly in the CPI and PPI coverage of the goods are not likely. The end of the end of China's edible agricultural products prices generally rise. The state-run Xinhua News agency monitoring system of agricultural and sideline products and agricultural materials showed that in November this year, the prices of grain, eggs and fresh vegetables rose 8.4%, 5.5% and 18.6% respectively. At the same time, monitoring shows that since August, China's food prices began overall higher than last year, August, September, October food prices rose 0.5%, 1.5%, 1.6% respectively.　　Since the December, in Shandong, Guangdong and many other regions, in the soybean oil and other edible oil prices driven by the rise in the price of many agricultural products are still very strong momentum. Edible oil, food prices rose steadily, even the humble garlic, chili prices have hit a new record. Compared with the previously rising resource products such as oil price, natural gas price, non-resident electricity price and water price, the price increase of edible agricultural products has aroused people's concern. Will the rise in food prices, more than one-third of the weight of CPI statistics, push prices to new heights? Will inflation expectations translate into reality? How can the direct impact on people's livelihood be solved?　　What does food price inflation mean? There is growing concern about inflation in the eight major categories of Chinese CPI, the weight of food is as high as 34%.　　This round of edible agricultural products prices rose sharply, combined with the previous already appeared in the oil products, natural gas, non-resident electricity and other resource prices, people on the rise in prices, there is growing concern about inflation. Li, deputy dean of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said China is facing three pressures of rising prices: one is imported inflation. China's economic growth and volatility are more than 50% per cent affected by changes in international common factors, making it vulnerable to imported inflation, a study by the Academy of Social Sciences shows. China's grain production has been 6 consecutive years of harvest, the abundant stock makes the grain price not have the big fluctuation, but because the international commodity price rises, especially the oil price rise, to the fertilizer, the pesticide, agricultural production material and so on agricultural material price has formed the big upward pressure, probably will reflect to the grain price. Second, in some areas, some industries, there is also a shortage of conditions, such as a very small number of agricultural products price fluctuations caused domestic price fluctuations, this phenomenon may occur in the future. The third is the effect of money supply.　　The surge in money supply during the year also creates pressure on rising prices. Liu Yuhui, director of the China Economic Evaluation Center, said China has emerged asset bubbles and signs of inflation, in recent years, international food prices "unilateral" rally has become a foregone conclusion, even if the characteristics of China's agricultural market closed operation is still very obvious, even if the domestic prices of agricultural products are not significantly with the rise, there will be a great increase in pressure, The price of other products will be very strongTraction function. More will be reflected in asset prices. However, most experts still believe that the possibility of a sharp rise in prices next year is still unlikely. In the real economy, Li explained, "The effect of oversupply is likely to be stronger than the impact of the increase in money supply", which means that in the coming period, the significant change in China's price level is mainly reflected in CPI and PPI coverage of the commodity is not likely, " I'm afraid more will be reflected in asset prices. Li Tiegang, deputy dean of the Economics Institute of Shandong University, said that the fundamentals of product adequacy and even oversupply have not changed in many areas of China's food industry. At the same time, compared with the previous years, the supply of agricultural products in the era of shortage, the current changes in agricultural prices, the cost of its role has been much smaller.　　In addition, maintaining a higher level of savings and weaker export growth since late last year has also been a good factor in curbing inflation. "For more than a year, China's CPI continuously negative growth, next year is unlikely to have a strong rebound to trigger a clear inflation."　　"Li Tiegang said. Qiao, a Chinese economist at Goldman Sachs, also predicted in a recent interview that inflation would not pose much threat. Goldman Sachs forecasts that China's annual inflation rate will remain negative for 2009 and that 2010 could be between 2% and 3%.