Split PayPal is hotly discussed, whether will become a big company acquisition target?

At present, people in the industry are hot to split PayPal, it was proposed that when the break-up in 2015, PayPal will become the target of large companies? Now it seems that the key to the "problem" is that even after the break-up, it is expensive to buy PayPal, which limits the list of potential buyers. The bid start price is likely to be greater than 40 billion dollars and the transaction price will not be less than 50 billion U.S. dollars, unless PayPal from now until the completion of the break-up of the serious deterioration. The primary reason for PayPal's break-up is that "honest brokers" can bargain with a large number of potential buyers without any further hostage to anyone. Will PayPal become an acquisition target after the split? It is difficult to look at the situation of potential buyers.

1, Facebook. The company, which acquired 19 billion dollars for mobile phone real-time communications software WhatsApp, has paid less for the deal that Facebook spends heavily on acquisitions, at least in terms of revenue. There are plenty of reasons to hesitate for Facebook to buy PayPal. First, PayPal employs about twice times Facebook, but it creates half of Facebook's revenue. Second, for Facebook, the PayPal deal amounts to about One-fourth of Facebook's market capitalisation today. Even a big fan of Facebook should note that Facebook's current market capitalisation is based on the assumption that corporate revenues and earnings remain stable. Facebook cannot afford to buy PayPal if investors are more "normal" about their valuations.

2, Google. For Google, in any case have to buy PayPal's ability to pay. From the number of employees, PayPal is not so scary, but Google's employees average operating income far higher than PayPal. Google has struggled for years to gain an important foothold in the payment area, and it looks like the acquisition of PayPal would be a boon. The question is whether it is true that businesses are backing or defecting from Google's closing of all trading data. In addition, because it is Google, the acquisition of PayPal will make Google into antitrust censorship?

3. Amazon. Everyone wants to conquer the world, but it seems that no one can conquer the world more than Amazon. Amazon has a lot of similar products in its portfolio, and having PayPal will be a big boost for Amazon's online and retail payments goals. Amazon may also face antitrust scrutiny, even though Amazon has the ability to pay for PayPal.

4. Citigroup/JPMorgan Chase/Wells Fargo/Bank of America. The four banks are by far the largest four in the United States. Frankly, Citi and BofA are not rich enough to buy PayPal. Since 2008, the four banks have been tightly regulated, and it appears that four banks are unlikely to buy PayPal.

5. MasterCard/visa Company/American Express. Although the companies in the pay value chain are in a strong position for oligopoly, none of them is worth enough to buy PayPal. If three are combined to buy, it could backfire because several companies are conservative companies.

6, Apple. Apple is certainly rich enough to buy PayPal. While it looks good to buy PayPal, it doesn't match Apple's own personality. Although Apple may not completely exclude the possibility of the acquisition of PayPal, but can exclude most, because the Apple payment service will be to a large extent to make PayPal hurt, it is clear that Apple has been very angry with PayPal.

7, Alibaba. It can be said that Alibaba acquisition PayPal is the most suitable, Alipay is equivalent to China's PayPal. The acquisition of PayPal will make Alibaba "pure" into the U.S. market, but Alibaba and Mr Ma's handling of the Alipay is likely to lead to the U.S. bank regulator to the acquisition of "refusal."

There may be other potential buyers, but from the foregoing analysis it is also closely related to regulators, who worry about the risk of capital exposure and possible money-laundering, as well as the potential for monopolies (Amazon's takeover deal with Google could lead to antitrust scrutiny in the US and Brussels). In addition, the price may hinder the acquisition of the transaction, many potential buyers are not rich enough to pay 50 billion of dollars, and the acquisition of the transaction when the PayPal revenue may be 8 billion U.S. dollars.

The writer is Mark Rogowsky, a columnist for Forbes Chinese network, Rogviski.