The supply of new homes is shrinking, experts worry about retaliatory gains

Jahai May 5, Evergrande Real Estate announced 85 percent sales of the whole line of products.　　The sensitive question of falling house prices seems to be loosening.　　However, this day in the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences to participate in the "2010 China Real Estate Summit Forum," China Real Estate Industry Association vice President Zhu Zhengyi is worried.　　Zhu Zhengyi says short-term policies in some places have not only hit investment-buying homes, but also curbed demand for improved housing. "Learn from the second half of 2009, the lesson of retaliatory rise in house prices, not only to control the purchase demand, but also to take practical measures to improve the effective supply of commercial housing to avoid the low housing stock, once the short-term policy cancellation, the market retaliation rebound, the emergence of excessive price fluctuations."　　Zhu in a proposal. Time window open Beijing some developers have also begun to loosen prices.　　"K2 Begonia Bay" Advertising said that the opening price of 20,000 yuan/square meters, than the highest house prices 24,000 yuan/square meters, has been recalled. "Vanke Blue Mountain" is the east four ring high-end real estate representatives, May new open 7th building price set at 40,000 yuan/square meters.　　And before the price is ready to be priced at 45,000 yuan/square meters.　　Beijing Chain Home Real estate researcher Builded said that Beijing second-hand housing market after the introduction of Beijing's new policy, trading volume from about 1100 a day, a sharp fall to 300 sets, it is expected that this sluggish trading volume will continue for some time.　　Beijing May New pre-sale certificate of 25 new developments, the opening week, 14 new real Estate trading volume of zero.　　At the same time, a large number of investors selling houses, "State 10" policy, Beijing second-hand housing sales increased by 50%; Shanghai home Page Statistics, Shanghai, the availability of sales increased by 20%. "All this means that the policy of the state 10 is powerful." "Builded analysis, local governments should take the opportunity to adjust some long-term policies to give the market a stable forecast."　　At the same time, to curb speculative housing, to ensure the demand for normal house consumption, to the market a price will not fall after the surge of expectations.　　To the market a long-term stability of the expectations, but also Zhu Zhengyi repeatedly stressed.　　Zhu Zhengyi said that the 2008 real estate market downturn, the government introduced preferential measures, and then a rapid rise in housing prices; in 2010, when house prices rose too fast, local governments introduced some restrictive measures, many of which had obvious short-term features. May 1, Beijing Municipal real estate Transactions Management Network, the request to buy a person must fill in the Family Housing Status Declaration form.　　If the applicant is fraudulent, he will assume legal responsibility and inform the Banking Department of its information.　　However, these policies are short-term in nature and are "temporary" when they are introduced. May 5, the real estate business, Pan Shiyi in the real estate China Network on the Beijing real estate understanding of the forum said that Beijing's "limit purchase" policy has operational problems.　　　　And another real estate "big Mouth" Ren Zhiqiang said that Beijing will buy the home registration form of the situation to verify, it will take a long time, I am afraid that the round of real estate regulation has ended. ForThe quantity is still a difficult problem Zhu Zhengyi that the "Country 10" in the proposed two ideas to control house prices: one is to increase the effective supply of commercial housing, the second is to curb investment speculative demand for housing.　　At present, Beijing, Shenzhen and other major cities issued by the local policy, are mainly to control demand. Although the land Ministry announced this year's housing plan, it will provide 70% of the housing supply to the security room, shanty towns and small and medium-sized commercial housing. However, the Ministry of Land and resources only to the local government to implement the housing and slum upgrading of land assessment.　　The land for commercial housing is controlled dynamically by local governments. Li Jingguo of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said that from the commercial housing, 2009 sales area is 850 million square meters, an increase of 43.9%, completed area of 2009 to 580 million square meters, an increase of 6.2%.　　The gap between sales growth and completion growth determines the tight supply and demand. 2009 Development of land area of 230 million square meters, year-on-year growth of negative 19.9%, for the year since 1997 the lowest growth.　　This situation, it is possible for the next 1-2 years the supply of commercial housing has a negative impact. Over the past 5 years, the average housing land supply of 55,000 hectares per year, although this year announced 180,000 hectares of housing land supply (70% for commercial housing), Ren Zhiqiang said that the government can complete 180,000 hectares of housing land supply, even if it can be completed, the market whether there are enterprises to buy,　　Whether the development volume can be formed is also a problem. April, in Beijing, the implementation of land recruitment and transfer of new regulations, commercial housing land sold to zero.　　On the one hand is because the Beijing Land Bureau on the new transfer regulations difficult to control, worried about the high price and suspended transfer; On the other hand, developers are confused about expectations, actively take the land is not much.　　How long can the stock room hold? After the introduction of Beijing's new policy, most of the developers choose to postpone the opening and project development.　　Even if the ministry has formulated the real estate development regulations, meticulous to each link, but for developers, if you can get through the joint adjustment of land planning, can make the land development life extension of 2 years. Beijing Real Estate Association under-Secretary-General Chenzhi said that after the new policy, short-term sales will fall and increase the availability of the phenomenon.　　However, with the end of the policy expectation game, the rigid demand of the market is still very strong, then Beijing's first-tier urban housing supply problem, will still be revealed.　　According to the China Real Estate Research Center data, April 2010 and the inventory of the House has been reduced to varying degrees, of which, the auction can be sold to 57,054, the chain decline of 3.32%, and the sale of the house has fallen by 7.54%, down to 30386 sets. Beijing Real Estate before the new deal, the Beijing daily sales of about 700 sets, the new deal after the introduction of the reduction to 300 sets around. One months about 10,000 sets of houses.　　Before January 2010, Beijing's new monthly commercial housing sales have about 12,000 sets, but by April 2010, it fell to about 9000 sets. Commercial BankThe absolute amount of deposit was reduced from 61,000 sets in January 2010 to 56,000 in April. This means that sales are declining in the short term, but inventories are also in absolute decline.　　In spite of Beijing's claim that 46,000 sets of policy housing were completed in 2010, Beijing has sold about 200,000 houses a year, and if the supply of commercial housing is insufficient, the supply gap will still be created. Chenzhi analysis said, because of the housing prices are not determined, most of the family buy house is a wait-and-see attitude. But once the market is expected to be stable, rigid demand remains high. After all, Beijing's new deal still allows each family to buy a commercial housing. "The current local government should seize the time to formulate stable market expectations, guide developers to stabilize market expectations, and maintain the volume of housing development." ”