Deutsche Bank to maintain only goods will buy the rating target price of 243 dollars

In the morning of August 15, Beijing time, Deutsche Bank released its research report today, maintaining the stock rating of nyse:vips (Buy) unchanged, and raising its target price from $218 trillion to $11.5% to $243.

The following is a summary of the contents of the report:

Long-term mobile business growth in the loss of short-term profit margins; maintain a "buy" rating

-second-quarter results exceeded expectations again:

Only the second quarter of the goods will be 829 million U.S. dollars (quarter-on-quarter growth of 136%, up 18%), exceeding the company's previous expectations of the upper limit (growth of 125%), compared with the Deutsche Bank analysts and Wall Street analysts expected average higher than 3% and 5% respectively. Regardless of the data in the Lok Bee Network, only the second quarter active users (8 million) and the total order (24 million people) respectively achieved 129% and 121% year-on-year growth.

The second-quarter operating profit margin fell by 1% per cent to 5.2% per cent, compared with the average Wall Street analyst forecast of 1%, but less than 0.5% for Deutsche Bank analysts, mainly because of mobile-related spending (0.8%) and brand Marketing (0.3%). Influence. The first-quarter earnings per share was $0.7, 5% and 14% higher than Deutsche Bank analysts expect and Wall Street analysts ' average, mainly because of strong revenue growth.

Only the goods will expect the third-quarter revenue to rise 123% year-on-year, 4% higher than Wall Street analysts ' average forecast. We believe that the continued strong performance of organic growth demonstrates the soundness of the implementation of the product and the viability of the flash business model. Therefore, we have raised the target peg value of the only product to 1.1 times times from 1 time times, and on this basis, the target price of the goods will be raised to $243 and the stock rating will remain unchanged at "buy".

-The core business will achieve a doubling of the growth target; back-end business continues to improve:

We believe that only strong consumer and order growth in the second quarter (year-on-year growth of 129% and 121%) was mainly due to the impact of two major promotional events (April 18 and June 18). We expect the company to carry out more regular promotional activities (three times since the third quarter), but its size will fall, in line with the firm's "impulse buying" concept and the time-sensitive nature of its business model.

On the other hand, regular promotional activities will lead to more frequent peak transactions, so the need for only goods will improve their performance. The product will achieve the goal of increasing its capacity to 700 kilograms/sq m (currently 540 kilograms/sqm) by the year 2016, and at the same time the "last kilometer" experience to improve (so far this year has acquired 6 local delivery companies, and will be within two or three years to expand the scope of acquisitions to the national )。 We expect that excluding the Lok Bee net in the 2014 fiscal year will be the revenue growth of 106%.

-More aggressive mobile promotions will curb margin growth:

Only the second quarter operating profit margin (not in accordance with the United States General accounting standards) fell 1% on the chain, we will reduce the reason for the decline is: 1 for mobile application promotion of 6.6 million U.S. dollars incremental marketing spending; 2 2.5 million dollars in brand marketing spending.

We expect that the marketing budget of the product will shift towards a moving direction as mobile total turnover exceeds the total PC turnover in July, and that total marketing spending will be held to a level close to the second quarter (5.3% per cent). Therefore, we will reduce the operating profit margin of the 2014 and 2015 (not according to US General accounting standards) by 60 and 80 basis points respectively, to 5.4% and 6.4%.

We also predict that, influenced by the strong growth of core flash business revenue, the effect of the integration of Lok Bee Network on the profit margin (less than 1% in the second quarter) will gradually disappear.

-Increase the target price by 11% to $243; maintain a "buy" rating:

In view of the strong revenue growth outlook, we will increase revenue forecasts for the 2014, 2015 and 2016 fiscal year respectively by 5%, 5% and 10%, while increasing their earnings per share (not in accordance with US GAAP) by 3%, 1% and 2% respectively. We set a new target price of 243 US dollars (up 11%) on the stock market, which is based on the target peg value of 1.1 times times and the 2014 to 2016 annual earnings growth rate of 72% (before 74%).

We have raised the target peg value from 1 time times to 1.1 times times, because of confidence in the company's leadership and robust implementation in China's flash-buying market. We set the market leader's target peg value at more than 1 time times, such as Ctrip (NASDAQ:CTRP) and so on. (Tangfeng)