Inflationary pressures will not continue to rise in the second quarter

-Lianzhong in the first two months of 2011, consumer prices in the last year to maintain a higher level, short-term price increases will continue to maintain relatively high operation, but inflationary pressure will not increase significantly, the second half of the price will be reduced. The current level of overall price is still in the position of high operation, short-term price operation will not produce a big change, is expected to March consumer prices will remain high, the year-on-year increase will be around 5%, the first quarter cumulative year-on-year increase will be 4.9% or so. I believe that the inflationary pressure in the second quarter, although still exist, but will not continue to expand. Consumer prices in the first half of the year are expected to rise between 4.8% and 5% per cent.　　Over time, inflationary pressures will decrease in the second half of the year, and the overall price level will fall. The upward pressure on domestic commodity prices is still large. Food prices are facing greater upward pressure, the first two months, major food prices have increased significantly, including food prices rose 14.8%, poultry and its products prices rose 12%, eggs price rose 18.8%, aquatic product prices rose 10%, fresh fruit prices rose 32.8%. In addition, residential prices as a result of the increase in the weight of consumer prices, housing prices have become a new driving price increases important factors: 1-February residential prices rose 6.4%, pull the overall level of the price rose 1.1%, pulling effect increased by 0.7% over the same period last year. In the short run, in addition to fresh vegetables, fresh fruit, other major food and housing prices will not be significantly lower: first, the country's food acquisition policy on food prices have a more stable support, this year, the purchase price of wheat and rice has increased markedly, coupled with the continued rise in the international market food prices, Grain prices in the late period will still show a stable rising pattern; second, there is a reasonable price relationship between grain price and other agricultural products, and the increase of grain price will promote the steady rise of the price of meat, egg, milk, fruit and vegetable. Third, the cost of agricultural production continues to improve, in addition to chemical fertilizers, diesel, pesticides, seeds and other production means　　, the substantial increase in labor costs for agricultural production has greatly contributed to the rise in agricultural prices. The pressure on the price of services increased markedly. At present, commodity prices, especially food and other necessities of life prices have appeared a large round of rise, from the relationship between the price, the service prices objectively exist to raise demand. In reality, both rural labor and urban labor costs have increased markedly, which provides a possible condition for the price of services to rise. In addition, the current living prices of urban living water, electricity, gas, rent has been greatly improved, so that people engaged in the service industry in the food, housing, line, health care, education, cultural life, and so on because of the increase in the cost of increased spending has increased significantly, the main, objectively required to improve the labor income of service personnel,　　This will directly affect the cost of the increase in service prices. The pressure on imported inflation is growing. The current world economy is on the rise, commodity prices have risen markedly, and inflation pressures have generally increased in all countriesAdd, make our country input type inflation pressure also more and more big. Although the progress of economic recovery in the world is very different, the growth of world economy is in the obvious rising stage. In addition to strong economic growth in emerging economies such as China, India, Brazil and Russia, the economic recovery process in the developed world has accelerated markedly, especially as the US economy has recovered far more than expected. As a result, demand growth in the world has increased markedly, so there are signs of inflation or inflation in many countries around the world. In addition to India, Brazil and China, there has been a different level of inflation, and the European Union and the United States have significantly increased inflationary pressure. At present, the world's major commodity prices have increased significantly, crude oil, coal, non-ferrous metals, natural rubber, iron ore and grain, cotton prices have been greatly increased. With the further recovery of the world economy and the global liquidity glut, inflationary pressures will widen. In addition, the impact of the turmoil in Africa and the Middle East, crude oil prices have been more than 100 dollars/barrel and has continued to rise, so the short-term international market major commodity prices will maintain a high level of operation or even continued to rise.　　The running pattern of the continued rise of commodities in the international market will aggravate the pressure of China's imported inflation. The substantial increase in the price of means of production will gradually increase the price of downstream residents ' consumption.　　From the factory price of means of production, 2011 years ago Two months, the production cost of goods to increase 7.9%, of which the raw material industry factory prices rose 10.3%, the extractive industry factory prices in the same period last year, the rise of 34.5% to continue a significant increase of 14%. From the circulation of means of production price changes, the price of means of production sales rose more than the ex-factory price Increase: 2011 1-February, the price of goods sales rose by 16.8% in the same period last year increased by 11.1%, of which non-ferrous metals prices 1-February in the same period last year surged 57.6%　　, the price of chemical products rose by 8.2% in the same period of 30.6% last year, and oil prices rose by 16.1% in 1, up 29.6% in February. As the price of capital goods has been a long time, the potential of enterprises to absorb costs has been almost exhausted, if the price of means of production continues to rise sharply, will force enterprises to increase the price of products to the consumer to pass the upward pressure on costs, which will undoubtedly push up the overall price level. From the reality, the price of means of production will not change the running trend of rising, so the upstream means of production prices for consumer prices to increase the conduction pressure will be more and more. Since this year, the processing of industrial products and general industrial products, ex-factory price increases significantly: processing workersFactory prices in 1-February cumulative increase of 6.2%, up from a year earlier increased by 5.2%;　　This change has actually illustrated the increase in the conductivity of upstream and downstream product prices. In addition, last year's warping factor in the short term to the overall price level of the impact is still very large: 2010 price operation of 2011 years ago, two months of the tail effect of 3.3%, for March, the impact of the tail is 3.4%, the second quarter of the impact of 3.5% (4、5、6月份, respectively, 3.2,　　3.3 and 3.9%, combined with the first two months of the new price increase of 2.2%, short-term price increases in the pressure is still very large.　　While the pressure on current price increases remains high, the conditions for further price increases are not available, given that prices are already in relative highs. First of all, China's current total supply and aggregate demand is basically balanced, especially in the industrial consumer goods or oversupply of the pattern, the higher prices are mainly living necessities of food and monopolistic goods and services, price changes still present structural changes in characteristics,　　There is no condition that the prices of consumer goods and services generally rise substantially. Secondly, the current trend of macroeconomic policy is mainly to control the price increase, which will effectively curb the further expansion of price increases. Since the second half of last year, the state has implemented a strict monetary policy to control excess liquidity, to restrain price increase as the primary goal of macroeconomic policy, to increase the reserve ratio of commercial banks and deposit and loan interest rates, and to strictly control the scale of credit, so that the contradictions of excess liquidity, reduce the pressure Also make the price of sustained acceleration of the momentum of the rise has been initially suppressed.　　With the lapse of time, the effect of national macroeconomic policies, especially the monetary and credit policies, will be further revealed, and the price increase will show a steady and slightly decreasing operation trend.　　Third, food, meat, eggs, vegetables, fruit, aquatic products, the necessities of life prices have appeared a large round of increase, labor, agricultural product prices of the relationship to reasonable, under normal circumstances will not appear in the short term further substantial increase.　　Finally, monopolistic goods and government public service prices are greatly influenced by government regulation, and the government will increase the control of monopoly goods and public service prices in the case of higher inflation pressure. Five, the current growth rate of residents ' income, although a little faster, but the overall still slower than GDP growth, coupled with the lack of social security system function, the residents ' consumption capacity is still greatly restricted, so driving the price of a substantial increase in power. Although the country's income distribution policy reform is expected to increase the growth of residents ' income, but because the income distribution system, system reform needs time and process, will not be overnight, the short-term resident income will still show a steady growth trend. From the comparison of residents ' consumption ability and market supply ability, there is no incentive for residents to consume large priceThe increase in the condition of 3%-5% of the total price level is reasonable and normal. Given that the current level of overall price inflation is close to the high threshold of 5%, it is unlikely that further substantial price increases would be possible. In the short term, the price increase is likely to run in close to 5%, and the second half will fall. Household consumer prices are expected to rise by about 4.9% in the first quarter, with consumer prices rising 4.8% to 5% in the second half. The rise in structural prices is still the main factor in the current level of price increases, and the higher prices are still food and residential goods and services. Other types of goods and services, although the price changes are not large, but generally appear to rise and fall less, the overall trend of a small increase.