September foreign trade voyage or by the wave of the import and export growth rate of double drop

Guo Lichen If the Chinese foreign trade performance has been likened to a remote voyage this year, September data, which will be released around 10th, may face a modest "wave".　　Yesterday, many accepted the "First financial daily" reporter interviewed experts all said, according to the previous data, imports and exports year-on-year growth rate will decline.　　Data suspense remains to be solved, but one thing is certain, the pressure on the renminbi remains the same.　　Whether the surplus can remain high this year's foreign trade data after experiencing a rare deficit at the beginning of the month, "sailing" stability. Customs statistics show that August China's import and export value of 258.57 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 34.7%.　　The export of 139.3 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 34.4%, slower than last month 3.7%; imports 119.27 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 35.2%, compared to last month's 12.5% increase. In the previous August, China's import and export value of 1,875,580,000,000 U.S. dollars, an increase of 40%.　　Exports of 989.74 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 35.5%, imports of 885.84 billion U.S. dollars, growth of 45.5%.　　The trade surplus, which is up to $103.9 billion trillion, has exceeded official expectations that the annual trade surplus will narrow to $100 billion trillion. September first reference indicators, from China's export container transport market data, in the early September, Europe and North America, the volume of cargo lines basically stable.　　The Baltic Sea Index (BDI) fell after the beginning of the month, falling 10.8% per cent at the beginning of September 24, wiping out half of August.　　China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers ' Index (PMI), released in September, was 53.8%, up 2.1% from last month. From the relevant sub-item index, the general upward trend.　　The new export Order index for the month was 52.8%, up 0.6% from the previous month.　　However, the agency's forecasts are gloomy. SocGen's chief economist, Lu, predicts that September exports will fall into the 22.4%~26.4% range, median 24.4%, down 10% from last month, with imports falling into the 21.1%~25.1% range, median 23.1%,　　A big drop of 12.1% from last month; the surplus could be between $15.5 billion trillion and $17.5 billion trillion, a ~195 of around $2.5 billion a month.　　Guotai chief economist Lee Thunderbolt's forecasts are relatively upbeat.　　Li Thunderbolt told reporters that he predicted the median export growth rate will be 28.2%, import growth rate will be 22.5%, so the surplus will reach 22.12 billion U.S. dollars, higher than last month.　　PMI data showed that although the September import index was 52.9%, up 4.5% from last month, but in 20 industries, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing, apparel and footwear manufacturing and fur down products industry, metal products industry, wood processing and furniture manufacturing industry and other industries less than 50%. This also confirms some experts in the industry's judgment: in the domestic "energy saving and emission reduction" rushedThorn "power rationing" and other measures under the influence of September imports may fall.　　How to deal with pressure exchange rate play no matter how China's foreign trade moves, the yuan's exchange rate seems to have become a fixed play in some Western countries. Recently, the renminbi's exchange rate has been under pressure from the US for a few months of high surpluses and pressure from the US mid-term elections.　　Recently, the pressure on the European Union has emerged. Li Thunderbolt told reporters that although the EU is China's largest trading partner, but if the renminbi to the EU also accelerate the pace of appreciation, it means that the renminbi to the U.S. dollar to a more substantial appreciation. "It is unlikely that I will still maintain the renminbi's slow appreciation for the year," the judge said.　　"he said. Lu Commissar told reporters, fortunately, a short period of time before the renminbi against the dollar rapid appreciation, coincided with the depreciation of the dollar, so the effective exchange rate rose not much.　　In his view, the EU issued some pressure on the renminbi to appreciate the voice, is "Bones, beat." "The central issue of the game is that the US urges the EU to cede some of the IMF's voting power to emerging developing countries such as China, while the EU wants China to exchange a revaluation of its currency."　　"he said. A person in the industry told reporters that the EU countries, and Germany, France, such as the country's trade in China has no obvious deficit, or even a surplus, so within the EU, it is unlikely to pressure the renminbi exchange rate to form a joint force.