Solving the future of China's economy: There is a hurdle to avoid the past

Tian Hua Chado How will China's economy go? Is receiving the world's eye attention of the Expo venue-Shanghai How to adjust the industrial structure? In the face of the global financial crisis will not go to the moment, our business is not to avoid the past a hurdle? Will China's economic situation slide in the second half of this year?　　In the next 5 years, 10 and 10, will our economy be optimistic or pessimistic?　　In the face of this series of issues of general concern, sponsored by the first finance, Guangzhou Financial Center, Hangzhou Shanghai Enterprise Federation, Zhejiang Xiaoshan Rural Cooperative Bank, Hangzhou Yong Yuan Investment Co., Ltd., hosted by the "China Economic Forum", was recently held in Hangzhou Xiaoshan Sofitel Xanadu Resort Hotel, to ask the Chinese well-known economist to solve. Zhang Yansheng (Director of the National Development and Reform Commission foreign Economic Research Institute): We see the Chinese economy entering into a new period of development, the transformation of the mode of economic development will become the dominant line that governs our future.　　In this new era, we will face a series of changes: first, the economic development of the previous 30 years, the export-oriented economic model, may be a great change, we found that the transfer of low-cost processes abroad are gradually maturing. Secondly, we see that the current composition of investment in China is undergoing great changes. Market-driven foreign capital, that is, to China's investment is mainly the proportion of domestic sales in a significant rise. The adjustment of export-oriented strategy may face some risks: the first risk is that the processing trade surplus will have inflection point of change?　　The second risk is that when China's low-cost competitive advantage comes to an end, will there be a slowdown or even stagnation? Here I would also like to put forward a "five-ring" strategy, which focuses on the first three "rings", from "Made in China" into "East Asia manufacturing" should be the focus of our strategy.　　In order to ensure that the "five-ring" strategy of regional production system can be implemented, there are three support is very important: the first support is our external financial assets reconfiguration strategy should support the development of regional production system; The second pillar is the regionalization of the renminbi; the third is the soft power of our culture.　　Specifically, the five-ring strategy has several aspects: first, the next step in our "World factory" position, we need to change from price competition to differential competition; second, from imitation to innovation; third, from OEM to brand changes, we should create independent marketing channels and marketing capabilities.　　In addition, if we want to establish a unified market, but also pay attention to the transformation of the service industry, it is mainly in three aspects: first, the transformation of producer services, the second is the transformation of consumer services, the third is the transformation of social public services, including education, health, culture, employment and other aspects. Depai (Vice president of China Economic Reform Research Association): With the completion of Shanghai Hongqiao transportation hub, Shanghai will become a window center. Foreign enterprises in Shanghai, the mainland enterprises also open a variety of windows in Shanghai companies. After the expo, those square kilometers will basically developThe exhibition industry of the Sea.　　This is the "post-World Expo" period, Shanghai faced a huge adjustment. What is the relationship between the "post-Expo" period and the transformation of our industry?　　is to take Shanghai as a leader, relying on the Yangtze River delta, the advanced manufacturing and modern services industry. Xu Weimin (vice director of China Business Research Center of Fudan University, vice president of Enterprise Research Institute): Chinese enterprises, especially Chinese private enterprises, have a hurdle to hide from the past. In the midst of this global financial crisis, we have seen many of the problems that have been concealed in the boom, such as why do Chinese companies have such a large area of trouble?　　On the surface, that is because from 2007 onwards, China has a series of factor cost rise, to China's economic development disadvantage, such as: the appreciation of the renminbi, labor costs rise, the rise in raw material prices. All these issues, combined with the shrinking of our exports in the 2008 financial crisis, are the reasons why we talk about crises the most. Dialectics tells us that external causes are more severe, if there is no internal cause, it is not a climate. If it is true that the factor costs rise to blame, why enterprise products can not raise prices?　　Whenever we ask this question, many enterprises are a face helpless, think you this words very naïve, they said: We are eligible to increase prices?　　In fact, we deliberately said so, and so is this sentence, because this sentence leads to a problem, is the enterprise crisis. We have two indicators, one is gross margin, many enterprises in the middle of the 90 's, the Maori can reach more than 30%~40%, and in recent years, many enterprises have only 10% of the gross profit; the second indicator is the time of payment, many enterprises are 3 months, 4 months or even 5 months, there are more time. Why don't we have the bargaining power? In the final analysis, that is the low level of homogenization mode.　　When the corporate margin because of low levels of homogeneity of the loss of bargaining power, we see a very Chinese characteristics of the response, that is, "traffic strategy." Where is the key in the transition? Low-level homogeneity is the root of the problem, transformation will be conducive to get rid of homogenization: First, your product is not satisfied with the importance of customer needs?　　The second is to have a core advantage; third, it would be even better if we were positioned in the market.　　Among them, the key is the core advantage, the core advantage is a key technology formed by the enterprise competitive advantage. Zhong Wei (Director, Financial Research Center, Beijing Normal University): What has changed in the global economic landscape? How do you view the current situation in China? It should be said that China's best moment has passed, and if regulation remains unchanged for the next three quarters, the economy will gradually decline.　　I am optimistic about the next 5 years, 5-10 years of moderate attitude, the next 10 years is basically pessimistic.　　The economic growth of the past 10 years is probably the case: the Chinese population 20% of the world, consuming 30% of its resources, providing only 10% of the real output on Earth. About the growth of China's economy during the yearWhat's the situation? If not unexpectedly, four quarters of economic growth is 11%, 10%, 9%, 8%, that is to say, the first quarter 11% more, the second quarter is more than 10%, the third quarter below 10%, the annual economic growth is about 9.3%. Gradual decline, consumption contribution 4 points, investment 6 points, foreign trade last year is-3.9, this year is about 0, so the year 9% more, 10% less, this is the current economic growth. The key is in the third quarter, if the third quarter of macro-control is not loosened, China's economy will continue to slide. For the year, July or August is likely to reach the peak of inflation, that is, around 4%, so this year the government's goal of regulating inflation rate 3%~3.5% is no problem.