Facebook investors talk to you about the long-term plans of entrepreneurs

Maybe entrepreneurs will ask if they need long-term planning for their products, and Peter Thiel thinks this is necessary because the plan can change, but without a plan, the product is destined to be tide-proof and difficult to stand out from the crowd.

Peter Thiel, Founder, PayPal Founder, Facebook Investor, President, Clarium Capital, Founder's Fund Managing Partner, Venture Capital and Managing Director, Hewlett-Packard has many years of successful startup and investment experience and his Stanford-based Entrepreneurship "Entrepreneurship" course, which is a very worthwhile entrepreneurs to learn the course, and this article is one excerpt.

PS: Next Issue of Geek Activity - "Startup's Sleepy and Competitive" will also invite domestic entrepreneurship success and pioneers to help entrepreneurs succeed, hoping to help you find the key points in the business process, but it is easy to overlook The elements are also welcome to participate.

Today's United States is a country dominated by optimism and non-determinism, and people are very optimistic about the future as a whole. However, the uncertainty about how to go next has led to a downturn in both deposit and investment rates. This feature is particularly evident in the financial industry. Stocks, futures and real estate are fundamentally a random game. Although different investment information can improve returns and reduce risks, the only thing that can be determined in the end is "no Anything is ok. "

This attitude also filled the field of science and technology entrepreneurship, due to the team's uncertainty about the future of the product, they often have the following characteristics:

● Be happy with Darwinian A / B testing of products

● small step forward, rapid iteration

● emphasis on machine learning, data analysis

Less consideration for long-term planning

● Focus on short-term prospects

These features are not inherently problematic. A / B testing verifies which solution is more optimized. Rapid iteration can reduce long-term failure costs. Emphasis on machine learning and data analysis can improve short-term product relevance. However, one trend is obvious: in today's entrepreneurial culture, having a clear and definite plan is often overlooked by others, or it does not matter.

Is this a real success? Nirvana rebirth of Apple is undoubtedly the classic exception to this idea. For Apple, each stage of the fine planning is the key to its success: mobile phones, tablets, notebooks and other major product lines have a clear direction of development, business strategy has a clear plan, the company will have a clear development goals within the next few years, everything Business is planned around these goals.

The value of product planning

When Jobs returned to Apple, his share price was a meager $ 3. By 2003, while Apple was already very popular, the financial market still did not buy it, and the stock price was only $ 6. The reason for this phenomenon is that investors, who are inherently undeclared, are not optimistic about the history of Apple and can not establish a definite positive expectation on their future, and Apple will not even play a role in their planned mystery Any positive role. This has made Apple's stock substantially exceeded what people expected in the past few years.

Followed by Apple's pace, such as Airbnb, Pinterest, Dropbox, Path, and even Evernote so many well-planned products have achieved great success. On the face of it, their success is not consistent with the results of data analysis, but there seems to be a unique telepathy between these products and their needs. Outstanding product planning is one of the most important aspects of this, in these cases, this factor seems to be more effective than the traditional A / B test, fast iteration. Does this mean that the importance of product planning has finally come back in the current general trend of non-determinism?

Plan your product

Under normal circumstances, when a new product is widely welcomed, there will always be the company proposed the acquisition. Products that are not sure of their future tend to be willing to accept the takeover, because their founding is primarily for profit. An example is PayPal. Since its inception, PayPal has achieved many wonderful ideas. However, in 2002, PayPal has lost its new way of thinking and is uncertain about the future. We do not know where to go next. Therefore, The end of the year sold to eBay is perfectly understandable.

But when companies have a clear vision of their future, they often do not sell their products easily. Since you can do bigger things, why stop there halfway? For these companies, their internal tend to be based on their own next few months, the progress of the arrangements for the corresponding team step by step to achieve each step.

In an uncertain market, the product is not open to the internal planning of no value to investors. But for a given product, having a viable plan is one of the most important factors in determining its success. Precisely because no one in the market realizes the importance of this, these products, while rarely well-regarded by the market, are often more astonishing at long-term value. (Of course, because they are not bullish on the market, they may face a temporary dilemma in the process of growth and the product will need persistence.

For many start-up young people, their attitude towards the product tends to be optimistic and undeclared. They are keen to rapidly iterate and continuously improve their products, even if they are not clear about the future of the product. Of course, the development of such Twitter as in the process, through the user's extensive involvement in the gradual discovery of the product direction and value of the situation shows that this non-determinism is not unsuccessful, but the luck of which apparently accounted for a significant proportion. Like a lottery, when it comes to luck, there are few successful people.

What needs to be remembered is that even in a highly uncertain environment, we can still have our own clear plans. And if you're marching into a fast-moving market (such as social networking), a clear plan for your product is even more crucial. The plan can change, but if it's missing, then your product tends to be tighter, Difficult to really stand out.