Gem break crisis: High growth is the risk of fleeting clouds

Gem Pricing for the invisible hand of the control, continuous break, advertised high growth of the gem, its risk is fleeting to the gem accumulated a long period of valuation suspended, in the early 2011 burst.　　January 25, the Gem 5 IPO, 4 only below the IPO price, of which the days of the instrument decreases more than 16%.　　Since its inception in 2009, the gem has been in dispute, the high price, high price and high opening price as the representative of the "three high" phenomenon, widely criticized by the market and investors. December 22, 2010, new research shares announced the results of the inquiry to determine the issue price of 69.98 yuan/share, the corresponding P/e ratio of 150.82 times times, the IPO issued a new high price-earnings ratio.　　Prior to that, Watson's bio-and star-species issued a P/E ratio of 133.8 times and 138.46 times times respectively. Changshang, chairman of Nanjing WorldCom Asset Management Company, told Caijing National Weekly that "the gem can have a certain premium relative to the motherboard company, but those companies that have a P/E ratio on a hundredfold basis have no investment value at all."　　"The listed companies are issuing more and more high, and the overall performance growth is weak, the logic behind it is: the market pricing has been controlled by the invisible hand, with the price below the IPO phenomenon, the high growth of the gem, the risk is fleeting." Pricing unrelated to the 150.82 times-fold earnings of the new research shares, the main business is engaged in high-end animal husbandry machinery products research and development, production and sales.　　Similar listed companies have mountains and rivers intelligence, Rongxin shares, Leo shares, Jiffeng Agricultural machinery, their 2009 average static earnings ratio of 83.86 times times, of which the highest Jiffeng agricultural machinery for 126.57 times times.　　Changshang that, from a valuation point of view, a growing company with a small share of equity, more than 50% of the annual profit growth, can be given 40-50 times the valuation of P/E. Wang Jiangwi, general manager of Shenzhen Tong Wei venture capital company, also questioned the current pricing of gem, "If you can determine the growth of more than 100% per annum, 50 times multiples can be bought." This kind of company doesn't say no, but it's hard. If profit growth is only about 50%, then it is best to buy at less than 40 times multiples.　　According to wind data, of the 150 gem companies, the current P/E ratio is 50 times times below the 18. Microsoft's 1986 IPO was less than 5 times times earnings, the main revenue and net profit rose by 40% and 58% respectively in the year, the following year, the highest 75% and 78% respectively, and thereafter fell. At the end of the 1999 dotcom boom, Microsoft's shares rose to $58.7 trillion, up to 83 times times earnings.　　The US Nasdaq has a 20 times-fold average earnings ratio, with more than 50% per cent of stocks below 20 times times the Nasdaq's higher-than-50-dollar price.　　New research shares the most referential significance of the Jiffeng agricultural machinery, listed for a year to leave the market deep impression is not its performance of the rapid growth, but the two-level market frenzy hype. December 20093rd, when the market is optimistic about Huayi Brothers Starlight, Jiffeng Farm machinery as a inconspicuous variety, listed one months after the stock price reached 96 yuan, up to 300%.　　At this time, according to the 2009 Jiffeng Farm machinery earnings per share, 135 times times P/E. According to Jiffeng agricultural machinery Prospectus, its 30% income from government subsidies, and this part of the subsidy is directly related to the level of farmers purchase. Jiffeng agricultural machinery in the period from 1994 to 1997 through the completion of the start-up phase, has begun to take shape, the current listing of the main use of fund-raising is the direct expansion of the store.　　The purpose of such financing is not the same as the motherboard market. For the market to Jiffeng agricultural machinery speculation, China Venture capital company vice chairman Dingfugen to the "financial countries weekly", on the one hand, because of its sales model has created a share price listed several times of suning appliances; On the other hand, if pure from the market speculation angle, Jiffeng agricultural machinery to become the gem "No.1" Mashing "concept.　　But it actually exposes the price distortions of the gem itself. Dingfugen that the current performance clearly does not support Jiffeng agricultural machinery stock price positioning. New research stock price future performance growth is better than Jiffeng farm machinery is not sure.　　But it is certain that such a high price is clearly not in line with market rules.　　According to Shenzhen's data, the 150 gem companies averaged 78 times times the average P/E ratio at the most recent closing price, up from the 106.04 times-fold price-to-earnings ratio in 2010, but still a lot higher than the average P/e ratio of 35 times times and 56 times times the size of the Shenzhen board.　　According to the results of 123 gem listed companies listed at the end of August 2010, net profit in 2008, 2009 and the first half of 2010 to achieve more than 30% growth in the three reporting period, only 19 companies, accounting for less than 20%.　　Bubble how to according to the new research shares announcement of the inquiry results, the fund company to participate in the most active, in 140 of the inquiry object, the fund company for 93, the quotation median 76.00 yuan/share. Prior to that, the gem first high price shares Tomson Health, offering an offer of 110 yuan/share, corresponding to the 2009 after the diluted earnings ratio of 115.29 times times.　　Among them, in 206 inquires the object, the fund occupies 110, the declaration median price is 115 yuan/shares. A beijing-based fund manager who took part in the inquiry told Caijing National Weekly that the 150 times-fold price-earnings ratio was overvalued in terms of value. However, from the interests of the Fund, the number of declarations in the overall size of the fund is not large, the price of a little low for the fund does not have a particularly big problem. But if the report is relatively low, often "ta", the result is not subscribed.　　Before the market model effect is, again high price, after listing almost all have a rising space, so for all inquiries, institutions are willing to report relatively high prices.　　But the initial high pricing did not come from the fund's hands. In the first half of 2010, the performance "face" champion Pao shares 2010 year netProfits fell 82.07% Year-on-year, with the stock of Warburg, South Power supply listed in the Gem Performance "Face" the top three. Pao shares in the online purchase on October 14, 2009, the issue price of 19.6 yuan per share, corresponding to the issuance of P/E ratio of 81.67 times times. In the course of inquiry, a broker gave 28.5 yuan per share, corresponding to the number of commissioned 2 million shares, corresponding to the issuance of the 2008 P/E ratio 118.75 times times.　　In the inquiry, the number of brokers involved in the inquiry is similar to the fund, but the declared price median of 21 yuan, higher than the Fund's declaration of the median number of 18 yuan. Whether it is the highest issue of Tomson Pao or the biggest drop in the performance of the shares, the listing did not immediately below the IPO price, and the listing has a maximum of 5.6% and 67% respectively. "The reason for the high price is not related to the company's performance growth expectations." We all believe that a higher price, the two-tier market has the buyers.　　said the fund manager. The same is true in practice.　　Until the end of 2010, no matter how the issue price and valuation changes, including the gem, small and medium-sized new shares on the first day of speculation will never reduce the enthusiasm. According to the statistics of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, according to the first-day closing price, the initial listing of the 2010-year IPO on the average valuation quickly rose to 88.06 times times. Starting from the two quarter, the market began to slump, but the two-quarter and three-quarter IPOs on the first day of the IPO rose by 35.81% and 53.38% respectively, corresponding to the first day of the closing of the new shares are still up to 77.88 times times and 83.03 times times. In the quarter, the average rise in new shares was still as high as 41.5% per cent, thanks to a rapid rise in the valuation of small and medium equity offerings.　　According to the first-day closing price of the IPO, the average valuation of the IPO has reached 95.63 times times since the four quarter. So who's going to fry the new one?　　[Page] China registration and settlement Shenzhen Branch with the Shenzhen Financial Innovation Laboratory specifically on the issue of data analysis, the analysis of the "new and old" from June 19, 2006, after the election of the most serious speculation 22 stocks as a sample. The study found that a total of 245,700 accounts on the first day of the IPO to buy the above 22 sample stocks. Classified statistics results show that the first day to participate in the market to buy mainly small and medium-sized investors. Among them, the account market value of less than 50,000 investors accounted for close to 50%, the account market value of less than 100,000 of the total number of investors accounted for 85.73%, the account market value of 100,000 ￣ 1 million investors accounted for 13.01%.　　The proportion of fund, QDII, brokerage and other institutional investors is only 0.2%.　　Obviously, the high price issue of stocks, on the first day of the market by the small and medium-sized investors, to higher prices "to buy".　　On the other hand, dingfugen that, although participation in the first day of "speculation" of the majority of retail investors, but the real manipulation of the opening price and trend is not retail investors can. Dingfugen said that because of the monopoly of the inquiry mechanism, institutions to obtain new stock chips relatively concentrated, mutual benefitTogether, they will naturally be very tacit "dozen high" open price, thereby gaining excess profits.　　In this process, some of the funds involved in the inquiry, brokerage and other agencies to play for their own or "ally" "sedan" role, while the two-tier market is clearly the most direct victims of small and medium-sized investors.　　According to the Shenzhen Financial Renovation Laboratory statistics, since 2006, the participation in the first day of the new speculators, nearly 90% of the account losses.　　Inquiry manipulation a beijing-based investment banker, who declined to be named, pointed out that the current inquiry system, for the sponsors to achieve high pricing, there is room for manoeuvre. In accordance with the inquiry process, the sponsor has the right to selectively send an invitation letter to an agency with an inquiry qualification.　　In general, sponsors offer invitations to organizations that have worked together or have better relationships. "Caijing National weekly" reporter survey found that many organizations will also cooperate, only to participate in the first round of inquiry, the price range set high, not to participate in the second round of inquiry.　　In accordance with the provisions of the invitation to send an inquiry, the sponsors are not allowed to communicate with the inquiry object in private, but the current private communication is commonplace. At present, many investment bankers have courted fund managers to take stakes in listed companies through various channels such as VC or PE, the sources said.　　In this way, in a company's listing process, from the company's shareholding system transformation to attract financial investors to the IPO after the listing of the two-tier market, the whole chain VC, PE, sponsors and two level of the participants in the investment institutions of the interests of highly binding, all the participants on the chain want to entrust high price. According to the statistics of the Qing Branch company, at the end of October 2010, 130 gem listed companies, VC/PE-backed listed companies on the first day of the average increase of 58.3%, than the VC-PE-backed listed companies 11% higher.　　In addition, the first day of growth in more than 50% of the gem listed companies, VC/PE-backed listed companies accounted for more than VC/PE-backed listed companies 28% percentage points higher.　　On the other hand, the prospectus issued by the sponsor will directly affect the pricing of the listing. The first batch of gem listed companies in its IPO prospectus introduced, "2006 net profit of 16 million yuan, 2007 net profit of 26 million yuan, 2008 net profit of 37 million yuan, 2009 1-June net profit of 21 million yuan."　　"According to the sponsor's forecast, the company will maintain a compound growth rate of over 50% over the next 3 years." The real result is that the company's main net profit in 2009 did not increase by 10 million yuan as expected, but less than 2008.　　The net profit for the first three quarters of 2010 was 24.43 million yuan, only 62% of the net profit for the year 2009. In the past three years, the average net profit growth rate of 134 gem companies was only 31.89%, according to a recent study by CICC. The market on the gem of the company's earnings forecast has been downward, 2010 years one to three quarterly gem company to complete the cumulative profit forecast of 63%, the risk of achieving full-year profit is greater, the future profit is stillThere is a possibility of further downward adjustment.　　The proliferation of Bubble Gem IPO high priced, the heat affected the upstream venture capital. "More than 200 million, you may earn more than 10 times times the listing." "One day in November 2010, at a high fair in Shenzhen, a staff member of a lithium-ion battery company who plans to fund equity financing told reporters. According to the company to provide introduction materials, in 2010, only completed 100 million registered capital, built a plant, but there is no industrialization investment can be reported.　　10% of the company's equity, asking for 200 million yuan. The other is only a patent, has not produced a factory production engine power-saving device company, transfer 10% of the equity, asking for 3 million yuan.　　The company's general manager, Mr. Wu, told Caijing National Weekly that the main reason they moved the company to Shenzhen was because they heard that Shenzhen had a lot of money and was willing to invest in energy conservation and environmental protection projects. Data show that as of the end of October 2010, investment in the gem of the 97 VC and PE companies, the average return of 10.82 times times.　　Among them, VC organization obtains average return is 11.82 times times, PE organization obtains average return is 6.56 times times. With Granville Venture investment company General manager Wang Jiangwi to "financial countries weekly" introduction, as a VC, for a mature technology, with a separate patent, but not to achieve market-oriented companies, usually give a value of about 50 million yuan.　　But the prerequisite is, the industrialization has already reached the market test preliminarily, has the mature investment feasible report, to the future market has the scientific reasonable calculation, the direction and the growth potential will meet the listing standard. And for PE projects, they usually choose the standard is: The company has achieved stable profitability, according to the current level of profit growth, 2-3 years after the IPO profits can be increased by more than one times. Typically, such projects are involved at prices of around 10 times multiples. Since the listing can be positioned at about 20-30 times the P/E ratio, "the principle that has been upheld by most VC companies may not be applicable in today's crazy markets." As long as a random technical patent, has not been verified by industrialization, regardless of market prospects will be called the price of more than 30 million yuan. A slightly more marketable PE project will be priced at 20 times times or even 30 times times more than the price/earnings ratio. When we bargain on our principles and financiers, someone has taken the money.　　"Wang Jiangwi said. This situation has in fact formed a vicious circle-the high valuation of gem, leading to VC and PE higher pricing, which in turn affects the high pricing of IPOs, because only high pricing, VC and PE investment can be profitable exit.　　Investors have this demand on the one hand, but also have the ability to influence the high pricing of IPOs. So, the whole chain of the main players, the goal is consistent, highly coordinated, GEM IPO, the listing of the high price is natural.　　The direct result is that the gem has become a a-share in the history of the veritable "building a rich machine." Statistics show that only the end of October 2010, the number of gem billionaires more than 500 people. of which, assets over 1 billion yuanOf 73 people, tens of thousands of billionaires.　　Deduct off the trading day, gem on the market for one year, the gem on average daily "production" out Shine rich. System of the war economist Jipeng said, the gem appeared "three High" phenomenon, the main reason is the huge investment demand, and the issue of the audit committee is clock also "batch" not come out.　　In the case of not granted, the number of enterprises to issue the size of not go, the gem also has to pursue a market-oriented issue of inquiry system, the end can only lead to inquiries to the "ceiling."　　According to the current issue of the audit system, an IPO project from the record of communication, pre-trial to the meeting, and then online distribution, the average time consuming 6-7 months. According to the SFC's website, as at December 31, 2010, although there are already 154 gem listed companies, but still in the Commission queue of more than 300. The average period of 6 months per item is listed, with 300 companies in line, 5 listed in each batch and 360 months for eventual listing.　　At present, every gem listed company issued, there are more than 60 times times the amount of fund-raising subscription funds to participate in the subscription. "We have almost no rest day, and often stay up late looking at the material. Even so, too powerless to seriously look at all the company's reporting materials.　　"The pioneering board issued a full-time audit committee member Mr. Xue to the Finance and economics national weekly Reporter said." Mr Xue said that the wealth effect of the gem led to a large number of SMEs listed as the first gem rather than small and medium-sized board.　　From this, led to the low threshold of the gem is higher than the threshold of small and medium-sized plates. In addition to the institutional reasons for the launch of the Gem, the reasons for congestion, jipeng that the reason why the gem appeared "three High" phenomenon and secondary market imbalance, its root lies in the regulatory layer of the two wrong understanding: first, rather than to help the two-level market investors, rather than to the development of listed companies; second, market inquiry is not afraid of price　　Ceiling, "and the morning party returned to the floor. In this regard, the former deputy chairman of the Securities and Futures Commission Gao that, whether the administrative approval or approval system, is to use a static perspective of the company's quality, and can not guarantee the quality of the company's continued after the listing. At present, the power of issuing trial is too big, one day the management will realize that they do not have the ability to do the issue of issuing stock.