Anti-Lean Entrepreneurship Chapter III-Business intelligence based on public information

Abstract: Business intelligence analysis is to make bold assumptions, carefully verify. In the survey, you have to look for various ways to explain things, and then find a way to see if you can try to overthrow it, when you eliminate all the impossible, the remaining even if not reasonable, it is also a great probability

"Business intelligence analysis is to make bold assumptions, carefully verify." In the survey, you have to look for various ways to explain things, and then find a way to see if you can try to overthrow it, when you eliminate all the impossible, the rest even if not reasonable, that is the probability of the truth. "
--dr.2

A lot of people have read my views on some things and business, and then they come to ask me, how do you analyze and judge this so-and-so? Do you have insider information? First of all I pointed out that dr.2 is a little cock silk, no insider may be I know. Second, sometimes just guess, blind cat met Dead mouse, nothing. Third, is a long time to track a certain thing, learning the objectives of the Company's articles and comprehensive information, and constantly try to try to make assumptions, and constantly overturn their own judgment, the weighted scenario probability analysis, simulation of the results of the generation.

After "actual combat analysis of mobile medical app data" published, some readers pointed out that the "Bayesian statistical model" can be analyzed. This "expert one shot, know there is no", the reader among Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon Ah, in fact, DR.2 has been using these methods and ideas, and constantly revise the predictive model. Now that we're talking about this, a little bit: Bayesian model is a kind of algorithm that uses probability statistic knowledge to classify. But since the Bayes theorem assumes that the effect of a property value on a given class is independent of the value of other attributes, and this assumption is often not tenable in practice, the accuracy rate may drop, and I usually use it as a reference, To assist in decision-making (pure theoretical things no longer discussed, I also have a smattering).

Back to our business intelligence analysis topics, we from the corporate copy, leader of the article, the draft and interview and other Open text information, in fact, can analyze a lot of useful information, such as business or leadership of the concept and values, the current stage of development, the difficulties encountered, The future direction of development and so on can be figured out. Therefore, dr.2 that, in addition to Baidu Search, micro-bo micro-letter, but also need a comprehensive analysis of the target companies and leaders of the long article.

In fact, the style of writing is due to the character and ideological connotation of the people, a small child is very difficult to write and the world's article, the same as a woman in the purdah is also difficult to have a "bloody battlefield, hundred war and return" feelings. And "Jiangdong, waves scouring, the eternal heroes." So the West, humanity is, the Three Kingdoms Zhou Lang Chibi. "--as a representative of the bold and unconstrained faction, Su Shi's words open EAPC, let people surging!"

Although a person's style of writing is not immutable, but with a person's age, mentality, ideological content, experience changes, it will naturally change. and music non-emotional, with words to say love. The writing of literati is to express feelings and emotions through words. Now, "writers" of the purpose of writing more broadly, if the analysis from the commercial, some for marketing, in order to promote, some for speculation, in order to expand the influence, and some also to "cheat royalties" (such as dr.2 and other good comrades).

Give a few examples of rough analysis, do not take the condemnation.

Case 1: If a company CEO in a certain period of time, its style suddenly from the sun bright, green youth wind, transformed into a bold atmosphere, everywhere with the style of publicity. Dr.2 may make the following guesses:

Proud horseshoe disease, product promotion smooth, the enterprise has gained a certain market position. People meet the spirit of good, the enterprise received a financing. Want to open the people opened, want to leave the marriage ...

To synthesize the development and performance of the enterprise, this is only a clue, but we can further determine the real situation. Because the style of writing comes from the heart, you can do it on the surface, but as an emotional vent, your words will usually express your inner feelings directly. This and everybody likes to see "The good voice of China" is the same, because the song expresses the true feelings!

Case 2:dr.2 do not like the mean or dialectical unity of the writing, the reader brought "fog", Hyun Iffy, because I risked my life to give a just occurred specific cases, to elaborate, for readers to think. The day before yesterday, "A fragrant garden" a huge amount of financing news released, a moment of the crowd came out, a big comment, because it is a sudden event, so eager to write the article too late whitewash, is the best material to reflect the style of writing. We can analyze it.

A second article, "The Rise of the ape ball, the return of XX," the article, an entire embodiment of an "acid" word, not to eat grapes to say grape acid, especially in the beginning of a few paragraphs, also commented on the Penguin June, and so on. In the text of the lines deliberately to the other side of the opponent to paste, show its eagerness to occasion superior desire, but although want to attract attention, but still fake model false sample analysis of some, do a seemingly impartial judgment, the essence is to get praise, embodies its wretched mentality. Another media, the rapid history of the old article, highlighting the course of its arduous pioneering, and then wrote a strong emotional contrast, parallelism of data and pictures of bombing, simple and rough-type stiffness of their own. Although I have not seen, but from the style point of view, DR.2 can launch the following information, and then do a bold guess, the media article throughout all embodies a fashionable word, "envy jealousy hate"! The media in the style of expression of strong resentment, so how do grievances? should be the business development encountered some bottlenecks, or the hand of cash reserves or internal management, and so there is a bad place, there is the possibility of financing is not smooth. I didn't do any research, but according to the article, it seems that at least more than 20 of the wind-investment institutions, should be the profit model and business expansion here repeatedly questioned, so has been rejected it, so the heart began to compare impatience and anxiety, but also may say their bad, said they do not understand the business. The sudden huge financing announced, he was excited, after a night of the pen, the use of even since the media have rarely seen the super strong style, one is to express their strong dissatisfaction, to prove that those institutions are wrong. Second, to attract them to come to negotiate again, or to the next step to finance the plan. This kind of contradictory mentality manifests vividly in its between the lines. However, I think, the so-called "merry Total by the rain blows wind", not impatient development is the right path, opportunities in inadvertently appear, as for these outside the floating clouds are an, if you bloom, butterflies! A writer who wrote an article summarizing the 70 million dollar valuation is not expensive at all. Throughout the style, embodies a "holding" word, but others have data, there is logic, said that there is some truth. Dr.2 has not seen the master or communicated, but behind the style, it may contain the following information: they may be in the same city or a region to start a business, they may be "good friends." His business in the past, now or in the future will be with "some incense garden cooperation." He may know the news in advance and be prepared. Circle friends to carry each other, this is also aboveboard overt, very normal.

Ok, the public article can only mention this degree, someone asked, how do you evaluate the style of writing, what are the indicators? No, ethically feeling! It's just a feeling, it's hard to quantify, it's hard to figure out, and it needs constant practice and summarization. But really, it is also very simple, if you to the target company for several years, long track, spent enough time, a lot of information or intelligence will naturally emerge. So where can I find the material? Baidu knows, stick, a variety of recruitment copy, know, long blog even its years ago published articles, the style of the clues.

There are students questioned, you say is not too iffy, knowledgeable? In fact, as early as in ancient China, this method has been used to collect information. To give a simple example, we know that Caocao attack Hanzhong, a long time to attack, a Japanese army asked the manager night patrol the password, Caocao casually out of "chicken ribs." At this time a wise man Xiu, quickly gathered an intelligence, the Lord ready to retreat! A general asks He Jie? Xiu pointed out: chicken ribs, tasteless, food tasteless. This view, the Lord is in a dilemma, but the overall situation, should be prepared to retreat the recent!

So behind the text, for example, the wording and structure, with the modifiers and adjectives inside, contains a lot of information, but many unutterable, inexpressible!